Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yea, it's in a perfect spot for us, but just no real heavy precip. to speak of over most of us. To an extent, the 18z models were showing this feature as well. It's crazy the possible ways Central PA can get shafted (not getting the big totals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going on a forecast based only on the 3-hr panel, I'm going to say the GFS is ~50 miles east of 18z based on the northern kicker being ever so slightly east. But I hope I eat my words! That would definitely be bad news as the GFS has all the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This could be the end of our short lived west trend folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS makes no sense. H5 is euro like but it is dry and warm. I am starting to quickly lose interest in this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Already -6 here in Mansfield. Probably gonna hit -10 which would be the record low up here this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This could be the end of our short lived west trend folks. It could be, but to be honest you are insufferable with your constant "it's going to bust" posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS, water you doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm thinking there is something to this dry western flank thing. GFS has been dead consistent with it and RGEM caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS, water you doing. Giving everyone north of the turnpike about 1-3 inches...oy vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 before the massive freakout over any east trends... remember we dont want a west trend each and every run... need a few to go east from time to time... also remember the kicker is still out over open water so if it is the cause of any east trend it has not been sampled well yet either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just don't understand the GFS. It has to be the SW over the Great Lakes... To me, thats the only plausible way that a 986mb low can not put down any significant precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just can't see this happening. H5 great, track good, precip...what the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Giving everyone north of the turnpike about 1-3 inches...oy vey. No one in PA gets warning criteria, either. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just don't understand the GFS. It has to be the SW over the Great Lakes... To me, thats the only plausible way that a 986mb low can not put down any significant precip! gfsNE_sfc_prec_048.gif I just can't see this happening. H5 great, track good, precip...what the... its the dry air around 700mb being pulled into the system so early that is killing the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lol, this storm is more confusing than fun. Went from a KU type event to a mess just about everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just can't see this happening. H5 great, track good, precip...what the... Lol look at the precip hole that extends over DC and eastern VA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Over on MA forum, very close comparisons to Jan 25, 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 All right Ukie, it's your move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All right Ukie, it's your move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can I have the 18z GFS back? Heck i'll take the RGEM.... Just not the GFS...I know its impossible now for Euro to hold, but please just throw back 3-6".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 H5 cuts off too far south and the system outruns its upper support. That's what it seems to me. Similar to what happened in jan 26 2011 somewhat. Waa precip fell apart then h5 west south leaving a lot of pa with low snowfall compared to what a slp track like that should produce. It's an analog to this so possible but there are several runs left to see improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 its the dry air around 700mb being pulled into the system so early that is killing the precip Already checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At least the UKMET looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Uppers look good UKIE wise...SFC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The UKIE has the same thing like the GFS. Has the low right off the coast of NJ, but horrible PRECIP. This will BUST big time I have a feeling, that GL low is going to kill off the precip over PA> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Stop posting. You need a time out. Last one, leaving for Florida Friday morning. Good luck all. (Btw just a joke, this is snow not life and death) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Already checked. gfsNE_700_rhum_051.gif I wonder if that frontal boundary from that low over northern canada is causing some component of the american models to over intensify an area of sinking air between the pseudo front and the storm system... thus cutting off and hampering precip into pa?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sigh. Whatever way this storm breaks out, I am so glad I am not a meteorology major anymore lol. Reading the MA forum - there is a panel we still need to see - precip from hrs36-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Weather is going to do what it wants. I'll just come back tomorrow night if it is snowing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK was a good hit. Yoda's maps in the Mid-Atlantic are 6 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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