jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For NYC, ggem is 20-25mm of precip as snow and only 4-5mm as rain. Ukmet is even better because it has a great CCB. 850s never go above and surface goes above for a short time to 33-34 degrees and quickly crashes as ccb cranks. 34mm of precip. Conservatively, 25-30mm of it as snow. Meteogram for NYC: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=NewYork&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Both GGEM and UKMET would be very heavy initial bursts of snow before any dryslot or mixing. The UK has much more of a backlash than the GGEM, so that's something to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm more and more convinced looking at the trends, this will be a blockbuster storm for the cities, or at least their west sides! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamifin33 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Who is doing Euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone doing pbp for Euro? Eartlight, PB, or Yanks still up for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamifin33 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 stronger moisture and a tad east at hour 30 on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hr 30 very light precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hr 36. Mod snow..Heavy snow about to enter the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hr 36 precip picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 placement of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 36, center near Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hr 42 mod to heavy precip, nyc about to go to rain if not already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 48 center off south NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1" qpf line at NYC by hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hr 48 mod precip, nyc li rain. 850 and 32 line right on 80/287 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still tucked in...and torches us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like a colder run. Change over occurs at the coast by hr 42..Surface and 850 0c lines basically over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hr 54 850s crash back to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like a colder run. Change over occurs at the coast by hr 42..Surface and 850 0c lines basically over nyc Agreed, this run is colder and a tick East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamifin33 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice CCB after hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.25" to 1.50" qpf for nearly all of NJ, NYC, LI. at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks similar to past run but a little colder and maybe a little east. About what I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hr 60 light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice CCB after hr 48 850's on that ccb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice...it is better than 12z. Moved east a little and colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.50"+ qpf at hour 60 for NYC, good part of NJ, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.50"+ qpf at hour 60 for NYC, good part of NJ, LI. This will be interesting to see how much of that is Frozen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.50"+ qpf at hour 60 for NYC, good part of NJ, LI. But how much is snow? 6-10" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think we can get most of the precip to be frozen before we changeover. Precip always comes in faster than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This will be interesting to see how much of that is Frozen.. It seems that we get frozen precip for the city and coast until maybe noon, and then we torch the mid levels after. Hopefully we see another nudge east tomorrow as it is still tucking the low in too far to prevent mixing/changeovers for many of us after the front end burst. The CCB seems good though behind it. It by far seems the deepest at 500mb of any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just got home about 30 minutes ago and skimmed through the thread and about an hour ago there was an awesome page or so with several of our very good pros discussing model output - have they been kidnapped or did they all go to sleep? And if so, how could they sleep through the Euro, lol - we need you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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