earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is a thread for model discussion tonight. Please keep your posts to a high quality with analysis/info. IMBY or irrelevant posts will be deleted and repeat offenders suspended. Thanks guys. Wishing you all feet and feet of snow. SREF: 8:20 NAM: 9:00 GFS: 10:30 RGEM: 10:45 CMC: 11:00 GEFS: 12:00 ECMWF: 1230 ECMWF ENS: 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 always thought the ECMWF was at 1am. thanks for reference john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The SLP on SREF mean is a tick west, but the spread is still more to the west. Its wetter this run, precip spread is also more to the west - 850s stay to the SE of NYC but the Surface is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface temps are rather warm as well, so plumes wont be that great. But I don't know how much stock you can put into SREF thermal values at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The spread is left and heavily so. That being said the mean remains only a tick west of it's previous run. So we will have to see. 850 0c stays safely east of the city for the entirety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The spread is left and heavily so. That being said the mean remains only a tick west of it's previous run. So we will have to see. 850 0c stays safely east of the city for the entirety. John did you see how warm the surface is, The 0 line gets to NW NJ @72...I doubt it can see the dynamic cooling at this range or the low level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Heavy NW spread on the 21z SREF Not too great for you guys, but I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 John did you see how warm the surface, The 0 line get too NW NJ @72...I doubt it can see the dynamic cooling at this range or the low level cold air. Not really a big deal..it can snow at 32-33 F. And given the range we're at I care even less than I already would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not really a big deal..it can snow at 32-33 F. And given the range we're at I care even less than I already would. I have 8" of 32 degree snow in my back yard for a week now...there is always a chance for a change over to ice or rain in situations like this but if the low is se of NYC and moving ne it will be snow...especially this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At 9hrs the shortwave down south is a bit slower compared to 18z... This may translate to a sharper trough down the line....We'll see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 John did you see how warm the surface is, The 0 line gets to NW NJ @72...I doubt it can see the dynamic cooling at this range or the low level cold air. Although the surface is "warm" this thing is so wrapped and tucked I dont see it happening. I think 10 miles south of fire island is as far north as that 850 line makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just glancing at the 24 hour NAM compared to 18z, there are still some pretty significant changes going on from run to run. This is why it's usually prudent to use the ensemble mean trends instead of basing expectations and hopes off of OP runs. Anyway, it looks farther south with the confluent flow over the Northeast through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The backside energy on the NAM is stronger, and the entire trough is nudged west, I think this will end being farther west this run., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A tad less digging @ 42, norther stream a hair slower and a tad less energetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Definitely not as phased thru 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 More of a positive tilt @ 51 vs 18z - SLP is a tad east already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 that what we want instead of the EUERRO solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 that what we want instead of the EUERRO solution Not us inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The system is getting it's act together now at hour 54 as the energy dives in the backside and sharpens the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Turning the corner @ 57, Still a tad east with the slp - Light snow starts @ 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snowing by hour 60. QPF shield still looks robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Major shift east to a GFS solution. Weak on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is not as wet, and is more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All of the heavy precip is on the east side. This looks just like the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the EURO caves tonight...instead of winter storm watches, weenie suicide watches need to be put up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0.50" plus barely to NYC. Most of NNJ 0.25" plus, NE PA less. Major cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The main band is just south of nyc this run....at least there is no dry slot and it stays cold - The SLP is 8mb weaker @66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nice considering the models were getting too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS will be crowned KING after tonight's runs. Expect the shift to occur with the GGEM/EURO/UKMET tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NYC is at least 0.75"....ne nj 0.5"+, it's not horrible.....nice lp track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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