weathafella Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Your definitions of moderate and heavy snow are a bit unusual...between 18-42 hours, the NAM has Boston in the .01-.1 for each 6-hour frame...that's basically flurries, maybe a dusting outside the city center. Even 72 is only around an inch of snow over six hours so it's not "pretty heavy." I'm curious as to why the NAM is keying in on such an intense lobe of vorticity rounding the backside of the low, creating much more of a Norlun feature than the GFS shows. I think this might be hocus-pocus but it's certainly open to interpretation. Radar returns have really fallen apart for the initial ocean storm in the last few frames. Still looks as if most of the precipitation will slip east with only light accumulations for a few lucky people in SE Mass and maybe the Cape, if the ground isn't too wet/warm. ACK did go over to all snow at the last report but still 34F there. The guidance has consistently been for tomorrow and beyond outside of the cape and SE MA which is getting precip. I'm at 31.5, while nothing will make it here......if it did it would stick. Tomorrow should be varying lt snow but the only issue is where with an increase in intensity tomorrow night. That is what the NAM is modeling and it is irrefutable. it doesn't mean it's right but it is what it id. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM hammers BOS at 78/84, but I don't believe it one bit. How many times have we seen moderate snow from NYC-BOS with a surface low off Newfoundland? This run looks completely unrealistic and should be entirely discounted. The GFS also doesn't show the intense H5 energy in the back of the trough that allows the Norlun to happen, so this may be a figment of the NAM's imagination. I still think BOS could break the record number of days without accumulating snowfall quite easily. I think we can agree that the solution is unlikely but I was simply reporting the output. Incidentally the hammering begins 72 hours and really (for BOS ) is 75-81 or so. Not exactly NAMs wheelhouse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think we can agree that the solution is unlikely but I was simply reporting the output. Admit it....you'd like to strangle him with a tube sock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Admit it....you'd like to strangle him with a tube sock. ray you saw flurries in wilmington? congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Admit it....you'd like to strangle him with a tube sock. LOL. Ok I'm pretty confident I won't see anything here tonight. Aside of some OES banding I think this is a done deal west of Hyannis. I'll take another look in a bit but stick a fork in this one for me, there will be no accumulating snow tonight at my house. Winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Right now around 33F with steady wet snow falling now. Ground has a coating maybe. What a run back by Connelly. I hope our team pulls it together nicely in the second half and shows the Packers that they don't belong in our class. Judging by the precip shield right now, I would say models are correct in keeping the initial ocean storm heaviest precip to our east. Radar shows this banding developing just east and south of Nantucket, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Admit it....you'd like to strangle him with a tube sock. Nah...just get it wet and whack away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Opposite of last night, MET numbers are paltry. On to walk the dog for 45 minutes and then take a cursory GFS gaze and go to bed. I'm going to get stuff done this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 One can assume it's wrong. But the NAM snow tool gives 8+ in a good chunk of MA including ORH,Cape etc on NE. Dryslot gets 12+. Jerry, The Nam just won't relequish its solution, It still holding its ground and has for the last 4 cycles, Either it scores its biggest coup or it will never be able to be used again...................Go Pats..........................................................................................................until 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Opposite of last night, MET numbers are paltry. On to walk the dog for 45 minutes and then take a cursory GFS gaze and go to bed. I'm going to get stuff done this week... Yep. At some point we all have to realize we're in a historically bad pattern. I'm bummed it's not f'ing cold enough to even snow here. Forecast fail. It's raining back through exit 3 as well, so a lot of what is following under that nice band on radar is wet not white. I suspect the GFS and others will come to the NAM solution for Tue-Wed and that may be our saving grace. Really the only way we've gotten good snows since 12/25/09 was the retro. Someone could get a few inches in OES bands tonight. By morning we may finally see some snows fall on the little nub of QPF. If the outer cape gets cold enough they could get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ray you saw flurries in wilmington? congrats Yea, my buddy's GF actually discovered it out the window of the chineese establishment we were at.....I pondered and ultimately confirmed. She was so nervous that she'd have to shovel and I told her "no, though I can't rule out 1-3".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Opposite of last night, MET numbers are paltry. On to walk the dog for 45 minutes and then take a cursory GFS gaze and go to bed. I'm going to get stuff done this week... if you wake up to take a piss at 4 am ....tell me you won't flip on the radar/models etc i think the most we will get done over the next 48 hours is watching models. don't give up ......you've come this far....weenies never die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yep. At some point we all have to realize we're in a historically bad pattern. I'm bummed it's not f'ing cold enough to even snow here. Forecast fail. It's raining back through exit 3 as well, so a lot of what is following under that nice band on radar is wet not white. I suspect the GFS and others will come to the NAM solution for Tue-Wed and that may be our saving grace. Really the only way we've gotten good snows since 12/25/09 was the retro. Someone could get a few inches in OES bands tonight. By morning we may finally see some snows fall on the little nub of QPF. If the outer cape gets cold enough they could get hit pretty hard. I'm plenty cold enough, but there is just hardly any moisture to be had.....awesome how 2010 sorts that out with surgical precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 what's this little curled up turd about 200 miles east of atlantic city.....that appears stationary http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Really surprised at how well this thing is performing. Far more snow than I expected Uploaded with ImageShack.us Not the greatest pic. Will have better in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks like some flurries at gillette when they showed the lights. Still very light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Really surprised at how well this thing is performing. Far more snow than I expected Uploaded with ImageShack.us Not the greatest pic. Will have better in the AM Nice, impressive, enjoy, go out and take a walk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A friend of mine reports about 2" in Marshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A friend of mine reports about 2" in Marshfield. is that kev measuring over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 is that kev measuring over there A friend of some chick, so take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 They were right under that band so it doesnt surprise me. The jackpot for tonight will be up that way. RGEM is on the trough bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=okx&loop=yes Note on the radar we are finally seeing some NW movement well east of NJ in response to the digging s/w. Now that my end of the world moment has passed I am somewhat hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=EVV&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20101218&endTime=-1&duration=6 Can see the pivot startng to take place east of jersey as everything sharpens as the s/w dives down. Crunch time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 .......5h does look good last few frames of the upton long range radar look interesting http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=okx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 last few frames of the upton long range radar look interesting http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=okx&loop=yes Yes same with the Box radar. Everything was realigning, now we're seeing redevelopments across the board. GFS came west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 00z GFS looks good for the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=6 Can see the pivot startng to take place east of jersey as everything sharpens as the s/w dives down. Crunch time now. did that potent vort/ lP east of florida that is plowing eastward screw us over with development track of LP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 They were right under that band so it doesnt surprise me. The jackpot for tonight will be up that way. RGEM is on the trough bus. Elaborate please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ACK gets like an inch of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 00z GFS looks good for the Cape Temps are still a problem. It's raining along the shoreline. The bourne rotary has some snow mixed in but it's raining there now. It's 100% rain here now, as the winds are increasing it's getting wetter not whiter. Forecast fail. It's going to take some intense precip to make it snow here. This sucks. did that potent vort/ lP east of florida that is plowing eastward screw us over with development track of LP? Not really, it's just that the storm is missing by 50 miles. It's just the way things are around here now. There should be an impressive comma head on radar for a good 24 hours but probably just knicking the cape. Elaborate please.... RGEM has the ME precip in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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