CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't know - it almost seems you'd be better off dropping it. If it snows somehow beyond the ability of this pattern to find least excuse imaginable to prevent it from snowing, just enjoy it. I suspect the NAM will continue to dry out as these intervals get inside 42 hours over the next several cycles, because it is slowly capitulating to the progressivity of the ECM/GFS blend. In fact, I'm almost willing to bet that "wrap-around" won't get here either, and if it snows at all mid week it will be from a Norlun-like scenario, which at that point would be indirectly associated with the cyclone at best. Yeah, nice post John. The NAM has already backed off tonight's snow completely and is now producing it as it wraps around from a Norlun setup. Seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 And he is absolutely correct, I have shoveled 4 ft of your forecasted snow this year. So should we believe what you post /forecast on here or at NorthernWx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No I said minor accums on wed were possible but mainly just flurries and no big deal... I doubt most people in CT see anything. I think your forecast is spot on, Ct is not in the game for some piece of crap warm advection flurry thon from off the atlantic, which will probably turn to rain anyways with very warm BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Define most people The majority of viewers in the market. Right now doesn't look like a big deal... if the models still have it later tomorrow I'll get more excited. Certainly has the potential to be bigger but I think the odds of that are still low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't know - it almost seems you'd be better off dropping it. If it snows somehow beyond the ability of this pattern to find least excuse imaginable to prevent it from snowing, just enjoy it. I suspect the NAM will continue to dry out as these intervals get inside 42 hours over the next several cycles, because it is slowly capitulating to the progressivity of the ECM/GFS blend. In fact, I almost willing to bet that "wrap-around" won't get here either, and if it snows at all mid week it will be from a Norlun-like scenario, which at that point would be indirectly associated with the cyclone at best. yup i took advantage of this pattern and bet ray 20$ he doesn't see 5 inches by the end of dec. i would bet anyone 20$ that this wednesday threat wiffs (i.e less than an inch IMBY) as well. we are going for the record in boston for snowless days....and what will happen is that in the 24'th hour a weak eddy will come down drop a 1/4 inch at bos.....and then the history books will have no real memory of our misery. l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No I said minor accums on wed were possible but mainly just flurries and no big deal... I doubt most people in CT see anything. You guys wasted your money on couples therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So should we believe what you post /forecast on here or at NorthernWx? You believe what you want LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The majority of viewers in the market. Right now doesn't look like a big deal... if the models still have it later tomorrow I'll get more excited. Certainly has the potential to be bigger but I think the odds of that are still low. Fair enough. I'll be happy with your forecast for me of t-2.. Still think potential is there for more.Norluns/inverted troughs like this area of the state in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't know - it almost seems you'd be better off dropping it. If it snows somehow beyond the ability of this pattern to find least excuse imaginable to prevent it from snowing, just enjoy it. I suspect the NAM will continue to dry out as these intervals get inside 42 hours over the next several cycles, because it is slowly capitulating to the progressivity of the ECM/GFS blend. In fact, I'm almost willing to bet that "wrap-around" won't get here either, and if it snows at all mid week it will be from a Norlun-like scenario, which at that point would be indirectly associated with the cyclone at best. This^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'll be shocked if the entirety of SNE isn't snowcovered this week strongy disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah, nice post John. The NAM has already backed off tonight's snow completely and is now producing it as it wraps around from a Norlun setup. Seems unlikely to me. I'll just be happy with the ground whitened. I don't expect much out of this, but if I can squeeze out an inch...or even two, I'll be happy. Should be interesting to see how it pans out, but these situations can disappoint too. Hopefully the gfs tries to side with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This^^^^^ Deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 strongy disagree. No offense..but I'd much rather have Phil on my side, than you and he is..so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS looks better, but doesn't have the widespread light qpf across sne...at least at hr 72. It does have a good blob of qpf just east of BOS, that 06z did not have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yup i took advantage of this pattern and bet ray 20$ he doesn't see 5 inches by the end of dec. i would bet anyone 20$ that this wednesday threat wiffs (i.e less than an inch IMBY) as well. we are going for the record in boston for snowless days....and what will happen is that in the 24'th hour a weak eddy will come down drop a 1/4 inch at bos.....and then the history books will have no real memory of our misery. l Although precisely you said you bet him 20 bucks by the "end of dec" - I think you have a good shot at losing that bet around the 24-26th of the month. If you had said 20 bucks before xmass eve you would probably been better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'll just be happy with the ground whitened. I don't expect much out of this, but if I can squeeze out an inch...or even two, I'll be happy. Should be interesting to see how it pans out, but these situations can disappoint too. Hopefully the gfs tries to side with the euro. it will after the euro drops it by 0z runs to close the weekend. sorry kev. i mean it's written in the stars that pete stares up at in w.b.f mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS looks better, but doesn't have the widespread light qpf across sne...at least at hr 72. It does have a good blob of qpf just east of BOS, that 06z did not have. Oh god - not again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Although precisely you said you bet him 20 bucks by the "end of dec" - I think you have a good shot at losing that bet around the 24-26th of the month. If you had said 20 bucks before xmass eve you would probably been better off. i'd love to lose that bet. but i bet it goes south or drops 2-3 inches. i think early january we may see two events then mid month temps will be in the 40's for a good stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh god - not again. we should all have BDSM fetishes by now. or C&B Torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No offense..but I'd much rather have Phil on my side, than you and he is..so..... no offense, but I feel pretty safe going against you, given our track record thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS is pretty dry away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Too many threads not enough snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So should we believe what you post /forecast on here or at NorthernWx? Hey Kev, how is your waa snows on the GFS>>>>???LOL LOL LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Too many threads not enough snow perhaps if we offer a sacrfice............(not it) ......... perhaps socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 When new englanders look to the northeast for snow................. Houston we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Does anyone think TAN will go with any winter storm watches for the Cape and Islands for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Does anyone think TAN will go with any winter storm watches for the Cape and Islands for Monday? As of now, I wouldn't expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think so they almost have to go just to a warning at this point if they do anything Does anyone think TAN will go with any winter storm watches for the Cape and Islands for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Does anyone think TAN will go with any winter storm watches for the Cape and Islands for Monday? i think they will take a look at the 12z ensembles and dr no (no need to look really) and then put a wwa for nantucket and maypbe chatham up to barney frank land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hey Kev, how is your waa snows on the GFS>>>>???LOL LOL LOL Don't know..I don't look at or use the GFS for anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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