Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[Superstorm93]

Charleston kind of backs up the last post a bit...

 

 

 

The greatest coverage should remain 
over the waters but by Sunday when the cold front drops south and 
the low becomes part of the baroclinic zone...plenty of lift should 
be present for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Because of the 
approaching cold front...NHC/wpc believe the low would probably not 
become tropical...though if the front slows down there could be some 
sort of sub-tropical hybrid off our coast late in the weekend

[Scott747]

'sub-tropical hybrid'

 

Should never be uttered in any real tropical thread.

 

Especially at peak season.....

[Eyewall2005]

'sub-tropical hybrid'

 

Should never be uttered in any real tropical thread.

 

Especially at peak season.....

 

Sadly its what we have come to across the atlantic basin the last few yrs. One garbage or recurving storm after the next.

[Kory]

Looks like the advertised area of disturbed weather has gotten it's act together in the SW Caribbean.  It appears to be slowly drifting NW.  It's in an area of lower shear currently, but it is ripping from west to east 30+ kts just north of the system from an ULL.  Models move that ULL westward and the shear abates to generally less than 20 kts.  But the newest trend in the models is to take the energy from the SW Caribbean and move it over to the East Pac and developing it over there.  Let's see if that's the case.  

 

[Srain]

Looks like the advertised area of disturbed weather has gotten it's act together in the SW Caribbean.  It appears to be slowly drifting NW.  It's in an area of lower shear currently, but it is ripping from west to east 30+ kts just north of the system from an ULL.  Models move that ULL westward and the shear abates to generally less than 20 kts.  But the newest trend in the models is to take the energy from the SW Caribbean and move it over to the East Pac and developing it over there.  Let's see if that's the case.  

 

 

The main hindrance right now is lack of a low level circulation probably due to land interaction. There is some spin in the 700/500mb levels, but shear to the N of this area of disturbed weather has kept it in check. Condition may become a bit more favorable for potential development in a couple of days as it interacts with an Easterly Wave progressing W across the Central Caribbean and gets a bit closer to the Yucatan Peninsula. This area of disturbed weather is just N of the Monsoonal trough and should continue to fester for the next several days.

[IsentropicLift]

No it's not sexy but quite a few ensemble members have well developed areas of low pressure in 3-4 days off the Carolina coast. Not sure if that would be classified as tropical, sub-tropical or just as an olf fashioned noreaster.

[AvantHiatus]

No it's not sexy but quite a few ensemble members have well developed areas of low pressure in 3-4 days off the Carolina coast. Not sure if that would be classified as tropical, sub-tropical or just as an olf fashioned noreaster.

Great setup for a noreaster man.

[Srain]

'sub-tropical hybrid'

 

Should never be uttered in any real tropical thread.

 

Especially at peak season.....

[Kory]

No it's not sexy but quite a few ensemble members have well developed areas of low pressure in 3-4 days off the Carolina coast. Not sure if that would be classified as tropical, sub-tropical or just as an olf fashioned noreaster.

I think tropical development is very low in my opinion due to the fact it's close proximity to land and it'll get absorbed by the incoming frontal boundary.

[downeastnc]

I think tropical development is very low in my opinion due to the fact it's close proximity to land and it'll get absorbed by the incoming frontal boundary.

 

Plenty of space out there for it to form just think Arthur,  water offshore there is plenty warm and if it organizes quick enough it could easily be a true tropical system....

[wxmx]

Plenty of space out there for it to form just think Arthur,  water offshore there is plenty warm and if it organizes quick enough it could easily be a true tropical system....

Almost half of the circulation of the broad low is inland already, it happens that convection is mostly in it's S and E quads. It's currently slowly moving WNW near the axis of a ridge to it's north. Little chance of development, IMO.

[Kory]

Plenty of space out there for it to form just think Arthur,  water offshore there is plenty warm and if it organizes quick enough it could easily be a true tropical system....

Umm...the low level vorticity is half over land.  Most models, even the Euro, which WAS bullish with development, keeps it over land until it emerges it off the coast of North Carolina.  By then, it should be racing NE.  I just don't see tropical development. 

 

[Superstorm93]

RAP analyzes a surface low, whereas the HPC has a surface trough along the GA/SC coast: 

 

[IsentropicLift]

The invest way out in the Eastern Atlantic continues to produce deep convection. I'm not exactly sure why the NHC lowered the chances of development today.

 

[Ground Scouring]

The invest way out in the Eastern Atlantic continues to produce deep convection. I'm not exactly sure why the NHC lowered the chances of development today.

…because there's near-0% model support for even the most minor development (down from maybe 20% model support yesterday)?

 

There's absolutely zero reason for this piece of crap (which is less organized than even the most robust waves that, this season, have not even amounted to anything) to be anything other than near-0% development. A lot of the criticism of the NHC is unwarranted.

 

As Strat747 said, the fact that we are hoping for even a weak TS in peak season says a lot about this season's underperformance.

[IsentropicLift]

…because there's near-0% model support for even the most minor development (down from maybe 20% model support yesterday)?

 

There's absolutely zero reason for this piece of crap to be anything other than near-0% development.

No offense but you have dismissed every single tropical threat this year. The GFS keeps the system alive until it reaches roughly 60W. You need to chill out.

[Kory]

…because there's near-0% model support for even the most minor development (down from maybe 20% model support yesterday)?

 

There's absolutely zero reason for this piece of crap (which is less organized than even the most robust waves that, this season, have not even amounted to anything) to be anything other than near-0% development. A lot of the criticism of the NHC is unwarranted.

Who exactly is criticizing the NHC?  No one I see in this discussion thread is doing so.  

[IsentropicLift]

Who exactly is criticizing the NHC?  No one I see in this discussion thread is doing so.  

Asking why they lowered probabilities isn't being critical.

[wxmeddler]

HS3 is out there right now with AV6. They said they loaded 60 sondes to drop. Just have to wait and see whether those get injected into the dynamic suite.

[Kory]

…because there's near-0% model support for even the most minor development (down from maybe 20% model support yesterday)?

 

There's absolutely zero reason for this piece of crap (which is less organized than even the most robust waves that, this season, have not even amounted to anything) to be anything other than near-0% development. A lot of the criticism of the NHC is unwarranted.

 

As Strat747 said, the fact that we are hoping for even a weak TS in peak season says a lot about this season's underperformance.

This season isn't underperforming.  Sure it's quiet number wise, but everyone expected that, so if you ask me it's performing as expected.  3 out of 4 storms making hurricane status is not bad so far.  It's more hurricanes than last year had and the season isn't even at it's peak yet.  

[Ground Scouring]

Asking why they lowered probabilities isn't being critical.

Well, if you've been a long-time observer of the tropics like me (since the late '90s) and have spent time on these forums, one of the most common weenie posts is a short statement asking why the NHC doesn't have higher probabilities for a system that usually never develops. If you have a good scientific reason to ask, then post it. In this case, you are talking about a model that, over the past several weeks, has consistently shown false tropical cyclogenesis events. The GFS has been terrible for even short-range cyclogenesis this season. The ECMWF, despite its cases of missing some weak TC genesis events, has been far better than the GFS, which has predicted even more TCs that never verified. As far as peak season is concerned, we're practically at the peak, so focusing on the number of days till the exact peak (September 12) is quite a reach considering the otherwise quiet season. If you look at the number of developments in the deep tropics, this season has been quite a dud, especially considering the recent string of quiet ATL seasons in the deep tropics with low ACE overall.

[IsentropicLift]

 

Well, if you've been a long-time observer of the tropics like me (since the late '90s) and have spent time on these forums, one of the most common weenie posts is a short statement asking why the NHC doesn't have higher probabilities for a system that usually never develops. If you have a good scientific reason to ask, then post it. In this case, you are talking about a model that, over the past several weeks, has consistently shown false tropical cyclogenesis events. The GFS has been terrible for even short-range cyclogenesis this season. The ECMWF, despite its cases of missing some weak TC genesis events, has been far better than the GFS, which has predicted even more TCs that never verified. As far as peak season is concerned, we're practically at the peak, so focusing on the number of days till the exact peak (September 12) is quite a reach considering the otherwise quiet season. If you look at the number of developments in the deep tropics, this season has been quite a dud, especially considering the recent string of quiet ATL seasons in the deep tropics with low ACE overall.

 

You don't need a model when you have a perfectly good satellite loop to work with. And I'm guessing that you haven't looked at the ECMWF ensemble mean which keeps the system around almost as long as the GFS. The GFS and ECMWF both maintain a somewhat organized system for at least the next 48-72 hours and are banking on the circulation remaining weak enough that the dry air and the approaching Kelvin wave eventually finish it off. The global models are great for establishing where tropical cyclone genesis might occur and nothing more until the system actually does or doesn't develop.

[Srain]

Keep an eye on the SW Caribbean over the weekend. Convection continues to fester this afternoon and the Euro Ensemble mean is suggesting below normal pressures across the Western Caribbean/Western Gulf into next Thursday across that part of the Atlantic Basin.

[Harbourton]

The long range forecast on this hurricane seems correct. May not have a Cat 2 all year.

[IsentropicLift]

The long range forecast on this hurricane seems correct. May not have a Cat 2 all year.

Arthur was a Cat 2.

[jcwxguy]

pretty sure they meant cat 3 

[Ground Scouring]

By all indications, the next potential wave behind 90L (if it even develops as much as the GFS indicates, which I don't believe it will) will be too far north to even have a chance to impact the U.S. and the NE Caribbean. The clock is tick, tick, ticking on this season...

[AvantHiatus]

By all indications, the next potential wave behind 90L (if it even develops as much as the GFS indicates, which I don't believe it will) will be too far north to even have a chance to impact the U.S. and the NE Caribbean. The clock is tick, tick, ticking on this season...

I can understand your pessimism, considering Florida's recent history. However, this season already holds more value than 2013. Give credit where it is due. 

 

Edit: 90L looking good + African Wave Train

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_14km_visir2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=24

[Ground Scouring]

I can understand your pessimism, considering Florida's recent history. However, this season already holds more value than 2013. Give credit where it is due. 

"Florida's recent history"? I'm talking about the U.S. in general, as well as the NE Caribbean. There have been no major landfalls in the U.S. since 2005. The NE Caribbean hasn't seen a hurricane impact since Omar 2008. The last hurricane impact in the Windward Islands was Tomás 2010. The last hurricane to hit TX was Ike 2008. In the contiguous U.S., only the Carolinas and LA have seen (relatively minor, intensity-wise) hurricane impacts since 2008. For nearly two years we've seen too much shear for homegrown hurricanes to develop in the W Caribbean and most of the Gulf. We haven't seen a major, long-lived hurricane develop in the MDR since 2011. We've seen very few TC days in the basin since 2011--certainly nothing like what we saw earlier in the +AMO phase. Compared to 1995-2005, 2006-2014 (particularly 2011-2014) have been weak in a large number of indicators. We've seen record levels of SAL and stability, along with an increasingly persistent mid-ocean TUTT since 2008, and especially since 2011.

 

You may be interested in even a crappy TS/weak hurricane that goes fishing, but to serious followers of the tropics--especially those who chase--it isn't much to write home about. A major fish would be more notable, but we haven't eked out a major hurricane in the ATL since Sandy 2012. ACE basin-wide has been running at near-record lows since 2011. I'm sure that you know of all the other statistics knowledgeable people here have mentioned. You may be interested in 90L and what follows it, but if a system either 1) doesn't impact land somewhere or 2) isn't very long-lived/intense, I'm not going to follow the tropics for anything other than ACE-peddling. And the majority of subtropical storms during peak season, and most subtropical storms generally, don't count as legitimate systems worthy of concern in most cases. Most STSs, barring land impacts, aren't as damaging as a hurricane or even many TSs. If we're lucky to see even a STS in peak season, then that shows how dead 2014 has been.

[Ground Scouring]

On another, more subjective note, even the recent +AMO phase (1995-present) hasn't been so impressive in some respects.

 

Even including 2004-2005, the 1995-present period has not been as impressive as the last +AMO phase between 1926-1969. That phase saw at least five large Category 4 landfalls in the U.S.: September 1926, September 1928, September 1947, August 1949, and Carla 1961. The period also saw Cat.-4 U.S. hits in 1932, 1945, 1948, 1950, 1960, and probably 1965 (Betsy). The storms in 1960 and 1969 were of at least moderate size at landfall, while the rest were compact. There were two Cat.-5 hits (both >145 kt) in 1935 and 1969. As far as Cat.-4+ landfalls are concerned, we've only seen small-sized Hurricane Charley (2004) since 1995. Almost of the major hits--except Charley--since 1995 have been weakening Cat.-3 cyclones at U.S. landfall. Cat.-4/5 impacts were definitely more frequent in 1926-1969 than in 1995-2014, even considering the shorter period of the latter.

 

You can argue that while in other respects we've seen some impressive stats--the number of Cat.-5 TCs, including the LFs of Dean and Felix 2007, between 2004-2007; the size of storms like Katrina, Rita, Ike, and Sandy; overall damages, inflation-adjusted, from recent impacts; etc.--some of these statistics may be unreliable, considering that we don't have a good sample of wind radii prior to the late 1970s (the modern satellite era) and that population increases may mask just how damaging storms in the past could be if they were to hit today. Additionally, while the number/frequency of major hurricanes seems greater since 1995, we must not forget that many of the 1926-1969 storms, even those that preliminary reanalysis downgrades, occurred prior to the satellite era. Even the reanalyzed data may thus not account for a major hurricane whose peak was not captured by reconnaissance or surface data, particularly over the open sea. In terms of raw intensity, a surprisingly large number of the U.S. impacts have been rather "average" even for major hurricanes. Of course, we can't dismiss the fact that we've seen impressive impacts outside the U.S., but most of the audience here is from the U.S. and thus may be more interested in U.S. hits.