January Forecast Discussion

[MJO812]

We can still end up with a close to average seasonal snowfall here that way like we did in 90-91 and 08-09 when the dominant

blocking was -EPO.

I remember in January of 2009 when we had a lot of nickel and dime events. That winter turned out to be a good one. I believe NYC received close to 30 inches that winter.

[Stormlover74]

We can still end up with a close to average seasonal snowfall here that way like we did in 90-91 and 08-09 when the dominant

blocking was -EPO. Both those years had at least 6" Decembers all on the EPO.

1990-91  0    0    0    0    0    7.2   8.4   9.1   0.2    0    0    0    24.9

2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6

90-91 was anything but cold. We lucked out with a few well timed storms but each time the snow was gone in a couple days.

[bluewave]

I remember in January of 2009 when we had a lot of nickel and dime events. That winter turned out to be a good one. I believe NYC received close to 30 inches that winter.

 

 

90-91 was anything but cold. We lucked out with a few well timed storms but each time the snow was gone in a couple days.

 

Yeah, some football games are a bunch of field goals instead of touchdowns.

[PB GFI]

If the measuring stick for this winter is gona be a KU storm then just pack it in .

They are rare pp , you got them every couple years , the 2000s and have spoiled pp

You should have been around in the 80`s , you would have died for 4 to 8 inch systems

you are already at 10 inches around the area  . Consider yourself lucky .

[EasternLI]

If that cold air retreats into siberia as bluewave said we may not have the strong cold air we need to work with some of the systems that may form along the east coast even if the blocking does show up. Catch 22 right there, as of right now the pattern is not ripe for big storms in the near future

 

At least what we're looking at is far out, still more looks to come.

[REDMK6GLI]

We can still end up with a close to average seasonal snowfall here that way like we did in 90-91 and 08-09 when the dominant

blocking was -EPO. Both those years had at least 6" Decembers all on the EPO.

1990-91  0    0    0    0    0    7.2   8.4   9.1   0.2    0    0    0    24.9

2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6

One problem many people on this board have gotten spoiled with the 2000's series of epic winters so now a KU is expected seasonally or atleast a MECS. it would not surprise me at all if by the end of january seasonal snowfall still hasnt been reached in many areas. This pattern upcoming with cold still has many flaws that can burn most in the tristate quickly, lets keep the expectations tempered until we see better blocking i.e. west based, established +PNA and a negative -AO. Until then we may have to just nickel and dime, for who knows maybe the rest of the winter

[Stormlover74]

Yeah, some football games are a bunch of field goals instead of touchdowns.

I'm just saying its not the best example of a winter I'd like to repeat. 86-87 or 08-09 were fairly average and I'd take them in a heartbeat. 90-91 was a fluke.

[EasternLI]

If the measuring stick for this winter is gona be a KU storm then just pack it in .

They are rare pp , you got them every couple years , the 2000s and have spoiled pp

You should have been around in the 80`s , you would have died for 4 to 8 inch systems

you are already at 10 inches around the area  . Consider yourself lucky .

 

This. It seems lately that some people are constantly looking for the perfect pattern and if its not, its a fail.

[ace0927]

What's wrong with light to moderate events? Nothing wrong with them at all.

 

when it snows for 3 hours goes to rain and flash freezes - you can tell me whats wrong. Waking up the morning after the rain storm and its 9 degrees isnt fun.

[REDMK6GLI]

This. It seems lately that some people are constantly looking for the perfect pattern and if its not, its a fail.

This is why i think if this pattern doesnt do anything there will be some winter cancel calls i feel.

[ace0927]

was 1970-71 an analog for this winter?

[IsentropicLift]

Why are people posting observations in a January discussion thread? Especially when it's still December.

 

The 12z GFS is still interesting around the 3rd/4th time frame. We will have more cold air to work with than we do for the immediate storm.

[alwaysready126]

This is why i think if this pattern doesnt do anything there will be some winter cancel calls i feel.

Cmon guys. You are acting as if you would feel satisfied with a couple of 1-3 inch storms and a bunch of slop. In my book if we don't get at least one 8 inch + storm the winters a bust. I know I know... according to climatology and the law of averages, winter is winter. Going fishing and getting skunked is not fun.

[REDMK6GLI]

Why are people posting observations in a January discussion thread? Especially when it's still December.

The 12z GFS is still interesting around the 3rd/4th time frame. We will have more cold air to work with than we do for the immediate storm.

Yea! Who is cluttering my thread with this december rhetoric?!!! Lol jk

Back on topic, looks like the 3rd/4th threat yanksfan does look alot better than this one. Still aways off but interestin nonetheless, we'll all be keeping an eye on this one for sure

[REDMK6GLI]

Cmon guys. You are acting as if you would feel satisfied with a couple of 1-3 inch storms and a bunch of slop. In my book if we don't get at least one 8 inch + storm the winters a bust. I know I know... according to climatology and the law of averages, winter is winter. Going fishing and getting skunked is not fun.

Im not bickering at all. Quite the opposite actually cant control mother nature and have to take what shes throws at us sometimes with a grain of salt whether we like it or not. Just stating there will be some early exits for winter calls if this cold doesnt deliver something from some members who dont control there emotions well

[FreeRain]

 Just stating there will be some early exits for winter calls if this cold doesnt deliver something from some members who dont control there emotions well

 

They should follow their early exit calls with early exits from this board.

[White Gorilla]

Guys, we have three more months of potential for big snow. That's a long time. Let's just take it easy and enjoy the fascination of how weather unfolds and the challenge of trying to predict it and keep up with it. It's not going to be a torch winter, so let's start with that high probability as a good foundation. December was overall cold with snow events. Not bad at all. There will definitely be storms to track and some will definitely deliver the goods. Have patience.

[mranger48]

"@DTVaWeatherman: **ALERT#2 ** 12Z Thurs GFS shows JAN 3-4 Low to be SIGNIFICANT East coast snowstorm threat. IGNORE off the coast idea. FULL WRITE UP soon"

DT seems to still like the jan 3/4 threat. Looking forward to this write up when it comes out

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[atownwxwatcher]

"@DTVaWeatherman: **ALERT#2 ** 12Z Thurs GFS shows JAN 3-4 Low to be SIGNIFICANT East coast snowstorm threat. IGNORE off the coast idea. FULL WRITE UP soon"

DT seems to still like the jan 3/4 threat. Looking forward to this write up when it comes out

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

DT use to live and die by the ECM and now lately hes been living and dying by the GFS...

 

ECM is high and dry during this period of time ... 

[PB GFI]

You can see why the Euro ensembles always kept the PV up in Canada on the 3rd.

The OP run is starting to see that the block wont be strong enough to drive the PV

further south. There is some reason why operational runs like to drop the PV further

south than reality in the day 8+ range. The beauty of the ECMWF forecast system

is that if the ensemble mean disagrees with the OP day 6-10, the OP eventually

breaks toward the ensemble.

 

old run

 

Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

new run like ensembles

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif

Day 10 on the op looks terrible. Deepens a center and drives it thru the upper mid west. Would pop the ridge here.

[SnowGoose69]

Day 10 on the op looks terrible. Deepens a center and drives it thru the upper mid west. Would pop the ridge here.

 

The Euro has been doing this all winter beyond Day 6 and has been wrong virtually every time

[PB GFI]

The Euro has been doing this all winter beyond Day 6 and has been wrong virtually every time

Fair , used to look at this model for guidance in its  D 5 thru 8 and lock it in .

[SnowGoose69]

Fair , used to look at this model for guidance in its  D 5 thru 8 and lock it in .

 

Ever since its upgrade its been largely useless Day 8-10, mostly GFS like, Day 5-7 its varied from year to year, its been bad this winter in that range but not quite as bad as 2012-2013 when it was constantly showing major snowstorms which did not pan out, this winter its had big problems overdigging stuff and also trying to destroy the WRN Canada and GOA ridge repeatedly...I think the best way to view any destruction of that ridge out there right now by either the GFS or Euro is that until we see it consistently inside Day 8 it probalby won't happen, much like the -NAO won't happen til we see it consistently showing inside that range.

[Weathergun]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean has the PV over the mouth of James Bay at 120hr. 850mb -20C over Northeast by 144hr:

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

This pattern can deliver the goods if one is not solely focused on a KU event. We're on the edge of the coldest air which is a good thing, sandwiched between the SE ridge and PV to the northwest. That promotes a SW to NE storm track and if you can time things right, you can get snow, just as we've already experienced multiple times this year. This isn't going to be the epic winter that some hoped for, but we shouldn't have any shortage of storms or cold air overall.

 

Plenty of big coastals showing up as well in the long range GEFS members which is always a good sign.

[Weathergun]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean looks less progressive with the trough than the Euro op for Jan 2-3 period:

 

 

[Isotherm]

ECMWF ensembles this afternoon indicate plenty of members w/ storms near the east coast around January 3rd. I would not expect the operational models to hone in on the event this early. If we build it, they will come. In a few days, the operational Euro will begin to see the storm potential.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Switching gears to the early January threats, 18z GFS

 

Hour 96 strong phasing over TX

[IsentropicLift]

Sunday's storm on the 18z GFS is sitting in the 50/50 position. Trough looks sharper, hopefully it has more room to amplify this run.

[IsentropicLift]

A bit surprised at the strength of the surface reflection at hour 105 on the 18z GFS given the amount of vorticy present at 500mb. The orientation looks ripe.

 

 

Edit:

I think I can see what's happening here. The northern stream is shearing out the strong southern stream energy. I think this is something that will be reversed in later runs. I would expect more 18z ensemble members to show a hit for this time period.

 

If we managed to get a piece of that PV to break off and phase in, watch out.