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Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This may be lower priority (and it is lower confidence ... but there nonetheless) due to the icing thing up N,  and the snow pack assault preoccupying folks' attention, but the collective analysis is missing it.  


 


Also, even the warmest NAM solution have a slight inversion between the T1 and T2 in the FRH grid for Logan, signaling that the regardless of these machine derived 2-m products, the bottom of the boundary layer is going to be a little challenged, albeit still above normal.


 


But the chorus of complaint is too busy and is missing a sneaky signal.   After the more important wave passes through central NE later Sunday, we are not out of the woods for more activity.  It occurs to me that there is a significant L/W axis still well west of even the App cordillera, pressing through the Lakes.  Granted, it is not good that a 4-D Euro solution does nothing with it, but that is still precarious considering the baroclinic axis is still near-by/failed to evacuated off-shore.   In fact, the less reliable NAM has for 3 cycles now persistently expanded new column of precipitation back up the EC heading toward Xmass Eve.  


 


Cisco also picks up on this interesting set up:


 


RELIED ON THE 00Z/20 GEFS MEAN FOR DAYS 3-5 AND THE 00Z/20 ECENS MEAN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE FLOW PATTERN AT THE MEDIUM RANGE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES--PARTICULARLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD--IS FAR FROM BEING SORTED OUT. HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT OCCURS OVER THE MIDWEST DAY 3 IS CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE EAST THROUGH DAY 4--AND PERHAPS INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.


 


It's low confidence ...of course, but there is options for wintry activity still on the table post the warm snow-pack apocalypse through Sunday morning. Overall, despite thing not meeting with some desires, the is an active week ... volatility and changeable  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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12z GGEM does again sort of clip the eastern half of the region with some snow. atmosphere cools just in time on that run. needle threader if this wave comes to fruition.

 

Ha!  You beat me too it .... I was just drawing some quick annotations to show plausibly how/why ... ah well, here it is anyway:

 

post-904-0-94098300-1387559446_thumb.jpg

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