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Post snow-pack apocalypse chance for wintry weather heading into Christmas morning

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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I mean maybe some OES east of HYA? Doesn't seem much to me.

 

Need to see another run but the GFS I thought hinted at an accumulating OES type deal in PYM county and points east.  Delicate interaction and most of these have busted low but still yielded flakes.  There's no skill this year for these things inside of 24 hours....so we'll see if the Euro does its usual and comes west this run.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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we rip on King James...but i do think HYA points east stand a pretty good chance for some light OE snow showers starting sometime Tue and going into Xmas morning.

Will have to see how it develops the next few runs. The 18z to me both the nam and Gfs looked like an on land oes fail but they are likely to bounce the wind directions around.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Will have to see how it develops the next few runs. The 18z to me both the nam and Gfs looked like an on land oes fail but they are likely to bounce the wind directions around.

my guess is...there's flakes flying on parts of the cape. now...is that just a few flurries or a few actual snow showers/squalls...i don't really know. the flow, as you mention, isn't great...but there's enough N component in the lower 3K feet to get some stuff firing i think. euro has a decent signature with basically a saturated layer at 900mb, which i like to see. i mean were literally talking like weenie analysis here i think...this isn't the kind of set-up you want for a "real" OES but given it's xmas...i like it for a few flurries at least. :lol:

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Models showing that the flow may back enough to NNW or N for a time Tuesday night into Christmas Day.  Multiple banded features expected as flow is somewhat sheared from 1000mb to 850mb.

 

It'll be a chopped up mess like the morning that system exited here last week.  But it could produce a little dusting or coating here and there.  Like I said though it'll change in the days ahead models have not nailed one of these at this range yet.

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jamesnichols1989

jamesnichols1989

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RGEM shoved the precip from the last wave pretty far NW compared to the 0z run.  Measurable now into Boston and Providence overnight Tuesday.

 

One more little shift and the cape may get dusted up pretty good and at least mood flakes in parts of SNE.

 

Even the NCEP models as of 12z don't like the storm possibilities and snow possibilities for us on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Thursday and Friday system is looking interesting if it stays cold enough.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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The chances are low, but I will say the 18z NCEP guidance came a good jump NW.  Not sure about the temps at ACK but there would be enough precip for a white xmas.   Not paying much attention but it is interesting to me that the creep NW continues. 

 

18z RGEM crept NW too now slicing the decent precip up over ACK.

 

Will have to see how it plays out, one more good shift and I still get nothing, but maybe it's more interesting for Phil.

 

(to be clear this is mainly the precip as it exits tonight lingering longer...and flipping)  Just looking at NCEP I could see it flipping to snow over the cape tonight for more than a few hours.  Be interesting to see how this progresses

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