Indystorm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Surface-based CAPE seems to be lagging quite a bit compared to what the forecast was. The 500j/kg remains all the way down in central Louisiana and Mississippi. We'll have to wait and see how quickly it advances northward. We need little surface based CAPE when we have kinematics such as this system is scheduled to provide. Will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thinking it doesn't happen, severe IMBY, but that last cell on the line, a hint of rotation seen from a distance (at elevation) on area 88Ds, and headed in general direction of CLL.Or, as models had generally been suggesting, the more impressive stuff would be North of I-10. And the main show would be East of Texas. Edit to Add- SPC thinks that cell is actually trailing the front. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...SRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 580... VALID 211830Z - 211930Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 580 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH MOST ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WW580...PER RASH OF CONVECTION THAT HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY...NEWD INTO SRN AR. COLD FRONT HAS NOW ADVANCED TO THE WRN PARTS OF WW AND FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT TRANSLATES EWD. STRONGEST CONVECTION TODAY HAS ACTUALLY TRAILED THE COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY WITH A LONGER LIVED UPDRAFT RACING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS FAYETTE COUNTY TX. THIS STORM IS LIKELY DRAWING FROM STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME OVER SOUTH TX BUT HAS STRUGGLED TO TAP INTO THE MORE BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM. GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED/MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH LINEAR ACTIVITY THAT IS EVOLVING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ..DARROW.. 12/21/2013 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It does appear to be slightly behind based on surface obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 This could spell trouble for N/C AL later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It sure is a picturesque storm system when viewed from water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 15% tornado probs gone; still 10% hatched across the Moderate risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 18Z Soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 TDWR showing a tornado vortex signature 2 miles NW of Hughes or about 20 miles SW of Memphis at 3:20 CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 A couple of Tornado warnings along the line now in LA. The event doesn't appear to be materializing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 A couple of Tornado warnings along the line now in LA. The event doesn't appear to be materializing though. Yay another premature bust call. The main upper-level support is just now interacting with the convection and the results are noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Follow-up from Hughes: 3:29 PM CST 2 Miles West of Hughes TSTM WIND DAMAGE *** 3 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO. TWO HOUSES COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THREE HOUSES WITH SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. ONE SERIOUS INJURY AND 2 MINOR INJURIES. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 23:28PM UTC Tor<-Spotter 2 miles E of COAHOMA, MS-Power flashes with cone tornado on the ground to my SW .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The two cells 50mi S of Memphis are doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The two cells 50mi S of Memphis are doing well. Looks like a few areas of rotation ongoing with those cells south of Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Jackson,TN strong hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Uhhoh...Jackson TN cell means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The line that moved through Memphis has gotten quite sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Decent couplet just north of Louisville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 There's a video making the rounds of a chase group "in a tornado" but it's clearly not. Wind doesn't veer more than 30 degrees the entire video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 One fatality with the Hughes AR tornado. 046 NWUS54 KMEG 221959 LSRMEG PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 159 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0321 PM TORNADO 2 W HUGHES 34.95N 90.51W 12/21/2013 ST. FRANCIS AR EMERGENCY MNGR *** 1 FATAL, 3 INJ *** TORNADO. TWO HOUSES COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THREE HOUSES WITH SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. ONE FATALITY...ONE SERIOUS INJURY...AND 2 MINOR INJURIES. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. AJC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=99034&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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