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December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 3

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Boogieman

Boogieman

Posted
Posted

You know, here we are... Sitting less than a week from Christmas. A lot of people are traveling Saturday-Sunday, many at night too. Cutting to the center of this, I really think WSW's should have been posted for all areas where the "wiggle" of the current low track could effect. I've talked to several people who are traveling this weekend, one in particular driving Saturday night to avoid traffic from Marshall into Canada. He said "the weather said heavy rain and 50 degrees"...

Maybe this is where my firefighter/public safety comes out and says really? COME ON.

Millions are traveling this weekend. Someone is going to end up with a ice storm, snow storm and flooding conditions. Post a WSW or atleast a statement! Know what I mean? Worst comes to worst, the NWS busts and only minimal amounts of precip will fall, Atleast the public would be AWARE of the possibility.

I agree with this. It seems like a lot of "wait until it's here to forecast it" is going on and downplaying the possibility that whatever happens, it's going to be more of a "where" rather than "if" it happens. With the heavy travel weekend coming up right in the heart of this, remember that heavy rain, floods, snow or ice are all bad driving conditions.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

You know, here we are... Sitting less than a week from Christmas. A lot of people are traveling Saturday-Sunday, many at night too. Cutting to the center of this, I really think WSW's should have been posted for all areas where the "wiggle" of the current low track could effect. I've talked to several people who are traveling this weekend, one in particular driving Saturday night to avoid traffic from Marshall into Canada. He said "the weather said heavy rain and 50 degrees"...

Maybe this is where my firefighter/public safety comes out and says really? COME ON.

Millions are traveling this weekend. Someone is going to end up with a ice storm, snow storm and flooding conditions. Post a WSW or atleast a statement! Know what I mean? Worst comes to worst, the NWS busts and only minimal amounts of precip will fall, Atleast the public would be AWARE of the possibility.

That's a good point. I know with our office, Grand Rapids, they won't post something until an hour before it starts...

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Thanks man! Are you from Toronto but live in Alberta currently?

So frustrating..get a nice deep base early in the season to have it all wash away within a week. Some already melted aaay today..Still got 4 months left though..a ton of opportunity!

 

Yup. Been living in Edmonton for about 4 months. Snowcover lover's paradise out here.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Well CTV news certainly dropped the ball on ice potential for Sunday. Mentioned that "we may see up to 5mm of freezing rain". They also showed some weather model animation indicating that the Sunday system would be mostly snow.

:facepalm:

Honestly, what it is it with these news agencies? It's hard to believe that 20 years ago they were all we had to rely on, without the internet and boards like this.

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Ryan45

Ryan45

Posted
Posted

Yup. Been living in Edmonton for about 4 months. Snowcover lover's paradise out here.

 

Nice, how do you like it over there?

 

My boss just moved to here from Calgary about a year ago. He says the winters over here are nothing like what they are in Calgary, haha. Sorry to be off topic, but I appreciate the "welcome" haha.

 

Just measured and I have a 10" snow depth. We got 14.5" from the weekend storm!

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Torontonian

Torontonian

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't say Lk Ontario has much effect on our ability to get ZR in Toronto, unless the winds are from the east. In fact the topography around Toronto is amenable to CAD.

 

Lake Ontario does have a big effect on nullifying ZR events in downtown T.O., Many times have seen ZR few 100 meters north of me above old Lake Ontario shoreline /St. Clair Ave while i get rain 0.25 degrees near Queens Park. lol

 

Lake O. never freezes and acts to moderate to slightly above zero when weather models, etc...aren't sure whether -1 or +1 is to be. Favour the lakes influence to moderate  unless NE or especially NNE wind mainly occur. 

Looks like some drizzle, little freezing drizzle, maybe ice pellets (slight accumulation), .light rain,  light snow, a real mixed bag.

 

Whatever occurs during Sat night- Sun. morn here will be dominant story. in T.O. afterwards.

 

Now a wait and see wind and temp watch,  as pulses go by.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Lake Ontario does have a big effect on nullifying ZR events in downtown T.O., Many times have seen ZR few 100 meters north of me above old Lake Ontario shoreline /St. Clair Ave while i get rain 0.25 degrees near Queens Park. lol

 

Lake O. never freezes and acts to moderate to slightly above zero when weather models, etc...aren't sure whether -1 or +1 is to be. Favour the lakes influence to moderate  unless NE or especially NNE wind mainly occur. 

Looks like some drizzle, little freezing drizzle, maybe ice pellets (slight accumulation), .light rain,  light snow, a real mixed bag.

 

Whatever occurs during Sat night- Sun. morn here will be dominant story. in T.O. afterwards.

 

Now a wait and see wind and temp watch,  as pulses go by.

Almost never freezes. It froze over completely in 1893 and 1934 and almost did so in 1994. :)

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hm8

hm8

Posted
Posted

DTX's new AFD is great and all, listing all of the possibilities but it kinda bugs me that they're not really making a forecast at all and just taking the wait and see approach. Sure they'd be sticking their necks out trying to make a call on the rain/ice/snow lines and it would probably need to be adjusted....but isn't that their job? I'd love to be able to read their opinions on how they think its gonna shake out.

 

Just my 2 cents

 

EDIT:

Pages of banter in the time it took to post this o_O

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Here's my thoughts on ice potential as of now. 

 

 

post-14-0-80003400-1387497812_thumb.png

 

 

I don't expect everyone in the orange area to get a quarter inch of ice, but I think a significant chunk could as described on the map.  I do think it's possible that some areas within the orange could get a half inch of ice or even more, but it would likely be relatively small areas and it's not possible to pin down with any confidence at this point.

 

Tried to draw a min in the Chicago area to account for lake/urban influences, which should make any glazing in the city proper minor at best.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Here's my thoughts on ice potential as of now. 

 

 

attachicon.gifice.png

 

 

I don't expect everyone in the orange area to get a quarter inch of ice, but I think a significant chunk could as described on the map.  I do think it's possible that some areas within the orange could get a half inch of ice or even more, but it would likely be relatively small areas and it's not possible to pin down with any confidence at this point.

 

Tried to draw a min in the Chicago area to account for lake/urban influences, which should make any glazing in the city proper minor at best.

 

I'm assuming that the northern part of the "red zone" will have more snow, while the southern stripe will be mostly rain...and that's why they are in "minor" amounts, correct?

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

I'll say this for you Hoosier. You've tried to play up the ice threat through this whole ordeal. Everyone else is so worried about the snow track when the problem could ice for a good portion of our subforum.

 

Even a quarter inch of ice can create major issues. Posters in the orange areas should charge their smartphones and tablets if they want to post here later.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Des Moines hoisted a WSW as well, so here's an updated map of winter storm watches:

 

Wow, that's confusing...but it's neat to see the connection between what all the NWS offices are calling for. I like the "significant" in Iowa. GRR NWS is still playing it conservative. I guess that is smart, considering the first system is just now affecting the Midwest area.

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ryanthunder

ryanthunder

Posted
Posted

UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A STRONG UPPER LOW IS DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND WILL BE KICKED OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE TROF BY A STRONG 150KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 300MB.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS FROM NEAR
SOUTHWEST MO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TO NORTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD EJECT NORTHEAST...WITH MODELS AGREEING
A TRACK THROUGH THE CWA AS A PARTIALLY CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW OCCURRING
ABOUT 12Z SUNDAY. THIS SYNOPTICALLY SETS THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM FOR OUR CWA AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. HEAVY RAINS WILL
TAKE PLACE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERMALLY...MODELS ARE A BIT COLDER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND I
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLEET/ZR TRANSITION TO SNOW A BIT FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE SEEN THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF FOR THIS
EVENT FALLS AS SLEET AND POSSIBLE RA/ZR IN THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR
EAST. WEST OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON TO STERLING ILLINOIS...THIS
EVENT SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THUS...AMOUNTS WILL SEE A STEEP GRADIENT FROM 6-8 INCHES WIDESPREAD
IN THE IOWA AND FAR WESTERN IL COUNTIES...TO UNDER 4 INCHES IN THE
EAST. THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER 6 INCHES IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO WARRANT A WATCH INCLUSION. BLOWING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS...AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH
6PM FOR THIS REASON.

 

^^^This is for the NWS in the Quad Cities. I need it to go just 10 miles south. Pleeeeease!!!

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