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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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That's what you're going to get when people are posting separate threads for glimmers of hope on the 84hr NAM in late March. Self-policing.

Self policing left the building years ago. Now i question the sanity of the people still on full tilt after nothing has changed in a decade.

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Which I said where?  You can keep peddling that bs, but you'll never respond when I ask you to put your money where your mouth is.

You may have not come right out and uttered those exact words but we all know what you meant. The statistical BS is just that, BS. You're biases towards warm weather shines right through.

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Fair enough.

If its a newbie starting the thread, by all means have at it. But when the metsfans (no offense anthony but damn dude you would call an empty glass half full) havent "learned", whats the point? At least the other thread was started by a meteorologist, with actual met discussion (which makes NEG NAO's hyperventilating even more amusing)....i see no reason to make your point more than once or twice in the thread.

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You may have not come right out and uttered those exact words but we all know what you meant. The statistical BS is just that, BS. You're biases towards warm weather shines right through.

 

And that's all we needed to hear from you.  Stats aren't BS, stats are objective fact.  Only the uninformed flat-out ignore them.  Sorry.

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And that's all we needed to hear from you. Stats aren't BS, stats are objective fact. Only the uninformed flat-out ignore them. Sorry.

Except when you use stats to state that it wont snow here because of the calendar...and then areas south of here with worse climo get 8". ;)

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Except when you use stats to state that it wont snow here because of the calendar...and then areas south of here with worse climo get 8". ;)

 

Except that I didn't say that, and it still is highly improbable to get such snow on the coastal plain in mid-late March.  That it happened ONCE doesn't change that.

 

I guess we should expect left-turn 940mb hurricanes to slam into Jersey every other year?

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Except that I didn't say that, and it still is highly improbable to get such snow on the coastal plain in mid-late March. That it happened ONCE doesn't change that.

I guess we should expect left-turn 940mb hurricanes to slam into Jersey every other year?

Christ dude get the underwear outta your ass it was a joke.

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Except that I didn't say that, and it still is highly improbable to get such snow on the coastal plain in mid-late March.  That it happened ONCE doesn't change that.

 

I guess we should expect left-turn 940mb hurricanes to slam into Jersey every other year?

Normally this applies when even a perfect coastal storm track gives the coastal plain rain and areas well N&W snow. That is the typical climatology of storms in late March and that is what is far more common than anything else. In this case however, if you have a perfect coastal storm track, everyone will snow so normal climate rules for this March don't apply. So it really has been a case of the storms just simply missing us to the south this month otherwise we would be breaking March snowfall records. 

 

The same rules apply to the next storm. If it were to take a perfect track then all of us would snow and that is what makes this March so anomalous to past March's. It's the fact that we're not even discussing rain vs. snow, we're discussing storm track whether it's snow or nothing. 

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We all know what your intentions were.

 

You happened to get lucky that the storm missed to our south.

 

You were right for the wrong reason.

 

My intention was to point out that, probabilistically speaking, snowfall of the type with which many were on board here is highly uncommon.  If you want to disagree, go ahead.

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Normally this applies when even a perfect coastal storm track gives the coastal plain rain and areas well N&W snow. That is the typical climatology of storms in late March and that is what is far more common than anything else. In this case however, if you have a perfect coastal storm track, everyone will snow so normal climate rules for this March don't apply. So it really has been a case of the storms just simply missing us to the south this month otherwise we would be breaking March snowfall records. 

 

The same rules apply to the next storm. If it were to take a perfect track then all of us would snow and that is what makes this March so anomalous to past March's. It's the fact that we're not even discussing rain vs. snow, we're discussing storm track whether it's snow or nothing. 

 

By this time of year, EVERYTHING has to be perfect.  Usually things don't line up like that, so that's why we rarely see significant snows around here by this point.  You'd think this would be pretty obvious to people...

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By this time of year, EVERYTHING has to be perfect.  Usually things don't line up like that, so that's why we rarely see significant snows around here by this point.  You'd think this would be pretty obvious to people...

Well the storm track for sure has to be pretty close to perfect, but this can apply to Dec, Jan, and Feb as well. March is obviously more difficult because of the PV, which can be both a blessing or a curse this time of year. You need the PV for cold but it can't be overwhelming or the storm will become suppressed. Other factors like the sun angle and rising averages also play a role but to a lesser extent usually through the 15th before becoming increasingly important. 

 

This March we do have a vast amount of cold air present thanks to the PV so the most important thing is the storm track. This is definitely as good as it gets for the mid-atlantic for the month of March. The PV is in play but the storm track is not a detriment and they are far enough south to get the benefit of the anomalous cold and the warm, moist air overriding it. 

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Should i delete my post so i dont send you into a panic attack about the rules?

NO here is a link too show previous posts by this character - you are what is called an agitator - very few of yours posts are original or weather related with an educated opinion about storms model runs etc. etc. - all you do is try to start crap with people trying to control what and how they say things or little snide remarks to cause a confrontation

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/user/75-bxengine/

 

click on posts in that link

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