Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I don't think so -- I read a paper once about the great Tri-State tornado of March 18, 1925, that surmised that the meso-cyclone taped into the vorticity of a mid-latitude cyclone, syncing, and becoming a closed system. This looks quite similar, with that negatively tilted s/w positioned ideally. A meso appeared to develop in the perfect location with respect q-vector forcing, and though this is not tri-state-type result, it might just have benefited from the same kinematics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 The thing is, you definitely need CAPE to get the good stretching and acceleration for violent updrafts with strong tornadoes. There had to be a local area of rather strong instability near the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 The thing is, you definitely need CAPE to get the good stretching and acceleration for violent updrafts with strong tornadoes. There had to be a local area of rather strong instability near the front. You could probably get away with "just enough" CAPE... with super strong low level shear and low LCLs that will do it. There have been a number of sig tors in low CAPE/high shear environments. Weird setup but pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 The thing is, you definitely need CAPE to get the good stretching and acceleration for violent updrafts with strong tornadoes. There had to be a local area of rather strong instability near the front. Yeah, I mean you have to keep in mind the grid scale that NARR is working on. A local ob or two near the warm front would absolutely get washed out by those north and south of the boundary. We know the channeling of winds contributed to higher helicity in the case of the Great Barrington tornado, but here that signal is washed out by the surrounding obs. One difference I do see in the reanalysis is that Great Barrington had 0-1 km shear in excess of 20-25 knots (indicating strong to violent tornadoes were possible). That signal wasn't so apparent in the Windsor Locks case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 Yeah, I mean you have to keep in mind the grid scale that NARR is working on. A local ob or two near the warm front would absolutely get washed out by those north and south of the boundary. We know the channeling of winds contributed to higher helicity in the case of the Great Barrington tornado, but here that signal is washed out by the surrounding obs. One difference I do see in the reanalysis is that Great Barrington had 0-1 km shear in excess of 20-25 knots (indicating strong to violent tornadoes were possible). That signal wasn't so apparent in the Windsor Locks case. Yeah - I'm guessing 0-1km shear was likely at least 20-25 knots IVOF warm front in the BDL case but was quite localized. Winds were E at 10 knots prior to the tornado and winds at 850mb were out of the south per the NARR - so that's some impressive turning along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 I did a quick and dirty sounding analysis using available raobs (most representative of airmass possible) and used the BDL sfc obs of T/Td/wind near the time of the tornado to modify best I could. I ended with about 600 J/Kg SBCAPE, 0-1 km SRH of 190, and 0-3 km SRH of 225. Could be substantial error there given paucity of real time profiles and mesoscale effects, but it's probably in the ballpark given the storm motion. Note that BDL sfc winds were like 110 to 120 degrees ahead of the tor... resulting in the high 0-1 km SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 I did a quick and dirty sounding analysis using available raobs (most representative of airmass possible) and used the BDL sfc obs of T/Td/wind near the time of the tornado to modify best I could. I ended with about 600 J/Kg SBCAPE, 0-1 km SRH of 190, and 0-3 km SRH of 225. Could be substantial error there given paucity of real time profiles and mesoscale effects, but it's probably in the ballpark given the storm motion. Note that BDL sfc winds were like 110 to 120 degrees ahead of the tor... resulting in the high 0-1 km SRH. That sounds about right though... I pulled up the JFK sounding from that morning and it looks "ok". Still a really bizarre setup for an F4 in New England though. Lance's MWR article on it from 87 is interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Is that using SCAN, Mike? That's a pretty cool tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 One thing too is looking at the NARR 4-panal maps, height falls looked quite impressive as well as the day goes on that is pretty significant as well. Having such pressure decreases can be a key factor in tornadogenesis as well...rapidly sinking air along with an airmass with great turning of the winds can certainly locally boost helicity values as well and by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 One thing too is looking at the NARR 4-panal maps, height falls looked quite impressive as well as the day goes on that is pretty significant as well. Having such pressure decreases can be a key factor in tornadogenesis as well...rapidly sinking air along with an airmass with great turning of the winds can certainly locally boost helicity values as well and by quite a bit. Rapidly sinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Rapidly sinking? I meant to say rapidly rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Apropos discussion, considering it looks like Wayne, NE will be the first U.S. violent tornado in October since Windsor Locks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Apropos discussion, considering it looks like Wayne, NE will be the first U.S. violent tornado in October since Windsor Locks. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Really? Looks like it. I mean it's just the month of October, there have been violent tornadoes in November, December, January and February since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Apropos discussion, considering it looks like Wayne, NE will be the first U.S. violent tornado in October since Windsor Locks. You are correct... wow... what a cool stat. Just went back and looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Looks like it. I mean it's just the month of October, there have been violent tornadoes in November, December, January and February since. October is a tornado graveyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 October is a tornado graveyard Makes the whole CT F4 in October all the more an oddity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Makes the whole CT F4 in October all the more an oddity. So freaking weird. Some of the damage pics are just remarkable - I haven't seen any damage pics come close in New England other than ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 So freaking weird. Some of the damage pics are just remarkable - I haven't seen any damage pics come close in New England other than ORH. Still waiting on the 1821 outbreak to repeat up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Still waiting on the 1821 outbreak to repeat up here. The 1878 Wallingford CT tornado was pretty wild. On the ground from Kent (on the NY border) all the way to the mouth of the CT River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 That's insane wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 So freaking weird. Some of the damage pics are just remarkable - I haven't seen any damage pics come close in New England other than ORH. Does SPC break down the Intensity of tornadoes per month without a graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Does SPC break down the Intensity of tornadoes per month without a graph? I didn't see one... Check out tornado history project Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 I didn't see one... Check out tornado history project Oh wow. Didn't know about this site. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 The 1878 Wallingford CT tornado was pretty wild. On the ground from Kent (on the NY border) all the way to the mouth of the CT River. You should do some kind of write up on that one someday. Your comment above is the first time I've heard of it being that long a track. My tornado project book lists 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 You should do some kind of write up on that one someday. Your comment above is the first time I've heard of it being that long a track. My tornado project book lists 10 miles. I really want to write a book on ct weather to be honest. As for 1878 I'm thinking it was one supercell with a few touchdowns but it may have been continuous. Hard to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 I really want to write a book on ct weather to be honest. As for 1878 I'm thinking it was one supercell with a few touchdowns but it may have been continuous. Hard to say for sure. Will that include any recent Tolland weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Will that include any recent Tolland weather? That's an entire chapter. The Magic of Mount Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Will that include any recent Tolland weather? So much for mets and mods following rules of no passive aggressive trolling. Funny, they want us to act that way, yet they are allowed to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 I really want to write a book on ct weather to be honest. As for 1878 I'm thinking it was one supercell with a few touchdowns but it may have been continuous. Hard to say for sure. Likewise with any major historical tornado (Tri-State, et al). It's just so hard to know if it was continuous because settlements were more sparse, and observations/accounts are limited to towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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