Supercane Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Not necessarily. (I never assume an upgrade with an advisory means that intensity was reached three hours before.) But I agree it will be a cleaner win if the 11 am advisory keeps it at TS intensity. Well the best track time intervals are 3 hours removed from the operational intervals (as I'm sure you know), so an operational 15z upgrade usually means it becomes a hurricane at either 12z or 18z on the best track. I'd rather not have that lingering uncertainty. Or, you know, we could be normal human beings and not care about what hour some TC near Cape Verde reaches 65kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Optimistic that the record will be broken tomorrow. Recent NOAA-16 POES (thanks for the correction) pass shows that it's looking pretty disheveled right now: Still. Dry air FTW. Yep, Humberto looks like he's sucking on SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Well the best track time intervals are 3 hours removed from the operational intervals (as I'm sure you know), so an operational 15z upgrade usually means it becomes a hurricane at either 12z or 18z on the best track. I'd rather not have that lingering uncertainty. Or, you know, we could be normal human beings and not care about what hour some TC near Cape Verde reaches 65kt. Ha ha ha. Yeah, they're at different intervals, but-- for example-- the 21Z advisory package reflects the estimated intensity at 21Z. (The initial time is 21Z.) If the storm was deemed to have just achieved hurricane intensity then, I don't know that the 18Z intensity will show that new intensity in the best track. It could be that they reflect it for 00Z. This having been said... I think the NHC is more precise Re: upgrade timing for systems near the coast, under recon surveillance. I can imagine that for systems like this one-- far from land and analyzed only via satellite-- they go with the 18Z analysis for the 21Z advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Yep, Humberto looks like he's sucking on SAL. More like in-situ mid-latitude air... there is little to no SAL coming off the African coast and getting into the core of Humberto with a deep mid-latitude trough around 25N / 20W (the trough reflection extends to the mid-levels, deflecting potentially SAL related air well northward of Humberto http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Still a 60-kt TS at 11 pm EDT. Gonna be cloooooose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 11, 2013 Author Share Posted September 11, 2013 Convection beginning to fire near and over the eye. Still looks meh overall. Maybe DMAX helps out. I don't care if we break the record honestly. Just make this a hurricane! http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Convection beginning to fire near and over the eye. Still looks meh overall. Maybe DMAX helps out. I don't care if we break the record honestly. Just make this a hurricane! http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif I hope it dies. It's a boring system. P.S. The convection is still firing primarily on the S side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Scrambled eggs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 just watch it get upgraded at 5am...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Its a good thing Josh doesnt work at the NHC.. He'd do anything he can right now to get that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 just watch it get upgraded at 5am...ugh Omg, don't say that!! Hey, at least we tied the date. Its a good thing Josh doesnt work at the NHC.. He'd do anything he can right now to get that record. Ha ha ha! I'm glad, too. There are probably a few borderline situations that would test my objectivity. My best contribution to the field is to just do what I do-- chase, film, and collect data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Its a good thing Josh doesnt work at the NHC.. He'd do anything he can right now to get that record. Nothing needs to be done right now. This is not a hurricane and it shouldn't be at 5am unless a miracle happens in the next 4hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Nothing needs to be done right now. This is not a hurricane and it shouldn't be at 5am unless a miracle happens in the next 4hrs. yeah but what worries me is convection firing over the center tonight and allowing it to ramp up quickly. although the ir looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Placing bets anyone... I say just lets go for the tie! (I'm not sure if that would make Josh happy if 2013 doesn't win outright) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 What time do we have to get to...to break the record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Placing bets anyone... I say just lets go for the tie! (I'm not sure if that would make Josh happy if 2013 doesn't win outright) C'mon-- after what we've been through, we deserve an outright win-- to commemorate our people's suffering. (But it is cool that we at least tied the date. ) What time do we have to get to...to break the record? The record is "just before 12Z" on 11 Sep. That's 8 am EDT. So if we get to the 11 am EDT advisory and it's still a TS, 2013 wins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Scrambled eggs. I hope it gets even more scrambled until it finally gets shredded apart. I'm elated at these latest developments of Humberto stalling and making this one of the closest margins for a record in the Atlantic I've seen. Its going to come down to the fricken' wire. just watch it get upgraded at 5am...ugh Start praying to your deities everyone, let this tie, better yet break, better yet never become a hurricane. Its possible for it never to become one, its happened before like this. Right now I'm just going to bed and hopefully wake up to a record lame season achievement of a lifetime . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I hope it gets even more scrambled until it finally gets shredded apart. I'm elated at these latest developments of Humberto stalling and making this one of the closest margins for a record in the Atlantic I've seen. Its going to come down to the fricken' wire. Start praying to your deities everyone, let this tie, better yet break, better yet never become a hurricane. Its possible for it never to become one, its happened before like this. Right now I'm just going to bed and hopefully wake up to a record lame season achievement of a lifetime . P.S. But after we break the Lameness Record, I do hope the 2013 season has a hawt Second Act, with a couple of Cat 4s in the W end of the basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 P.S. But after we break the Lameness Record, I do hope the 2013 season has a hawt Second Act, with a couple of Cat 4s in the W end of the basin. What is funny is when I quickly read this I mis-read the first part as, "But after we break the Lameness Bread"... I'm tired now. I can just imagine all the tropical nerds sitting in a circle after 11 am tomorrow breaking the bread of lameness and then eating it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 It's not going to get upgraded at 5 AM. We're looking good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 It's not going to get upgraded at 5 AM. We're looking good right now This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 What is funny is when I quickly read this I mis-read the first part as, "But after we break the Lameness Bread"... I'm tired now. I can just imagine all the tropical nerds sitting in a circle after 11 am tomorrow breaking the bread of lameness and then eating it . Ha ha ha! I can kind of imagine that. It's not going to get upgraded at 5 AM. We're looking good right now This. OK, cool. If we make it to 5 am, we at least tie the old record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 It looks like the convection to the N is building back in, but the MW imagery looks pretty tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 JUST KIDDING ABOUT NOT GETTING UPGRADED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THELAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THECYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6ZSUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLESTRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASEIN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 3 hours short of tying the record. Could have gone either way on the decision. Talk about season FAIL ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I think NHC just wants to troll us. They went 65 kt even though satellite estimate supported 55-65. Buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The satellite trends suggest the NHC upgrade is justified. Nice curved band developed on the southern side of Humberto overnight and has wrapped around the center in the past few hours. Also, ADT numbers increased from 3 to 4 in the past three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I think NHC just wants to troll us. They went 65 kt even though satellite estimate supported 55-65. Buzzkill. yeah I know, although those estimates are from 6z and some strengthing may have taken place. I personally would have left it alone until I saw convection fire a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Lol Humberto (and perhaps the NHC) is the ultimate troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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