Amped Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Does Ophelia '11 count? It was a sheared tropical cyclone and its low-level center eventually became exposed and dissipated. A new one formed under the convective mass to the east and it became a Category 4 near Bermuda. Ophelia wasn't a Hurricane in its first life. Euro has it reaching peak intensity when it hits the 42 north, which is even further north than Ophelia peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 Humberto is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone over the next 6-12 hours but regain tropical cyclone status by 72 hours. Hurricane again by day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Seems about par for 2013. Fall apart then get back together a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 15, 2013 Author Share Posted September 15, 2013 1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWESTOF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASINGAND DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVERTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDTO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONEOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLEFOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND INHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 16, 2013 Author Share Posted September 16, 2013 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920131100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTOHAS BEEN BURSTING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND THE DISTANCEBETWEEN THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN GRADUALLYDECREASING. THE SYSTEM NOW HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TOBE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ON HUMBERTO HAVEBEEN RESTARTED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ONTWO ASCAT PASSES FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT INDICATED WINDS TOTROPICAL STORM FORCE.A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06. HUMBERTO ISFORECAST TO MOVE INTO A COL AREA IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVERTHE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER ATLANTICCANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD AND THENNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDETROUGH SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERENORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODELCONSENSUS TVCA AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER ANDMORE-EASTERLY ECWMF AND THE FASTER AND MORE-WESTERLY GFS.VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE- TOUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TORELAX SOME AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND SHIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OFTHE CYCLONE. THE RELATIVE RELAXATION IN SHEAR FORECAST BY THEGLOBAL MODELS...ALONG WITH A TRACK OVER WARMER WATERS...SHOULDALLOW HUMBERTO TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.A POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ONDAYS 3-5 IS LIKELY TO SPEED UP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED BY DAY 5. THENHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS ANDLGEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 16/1500Z 27.2N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 17/0000Z 28.2N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 17/1200Z 29.5N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 18/0000Z 30.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH48H 18/1200Z 31.1N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH72H 19/1200Z 33.1N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH96H 20/1200Z 36.7N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 21/1200Z 44.7N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I'm sailing the St Lawrence to Halifax and to Bar Harbor starting Sunday. Is this going to cause me issues, TropicalAnalystwx13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bex N Baz Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 i c he is headed right for me in sunny scotland, not that he will b much by the time he gets over here tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 How much longer will NHC deny the LLC drifting southward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Also, Humberto appears to be phasing with a tutt. The resulting mutant cyclone should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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