jordanwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Then again, the GEFS is seriously overdoing the MJO's amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 MJO will swing back our way, though in a weak state. Wouldn't be surprised if we get some activity in the western Caribbean during early November. Some GEFS members are already showing this possibility. Interesting, I usually consider 31 Oct as the end of any possibility of sexy action, but hey, maybe this year will surprise us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Interesting, I usually consider 31 Oct as the end of any possibility of sexy action, but hey, maybe this year will surprise us. I think this year has already surprised us. 11-2-0 is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 I think this year has already surprised us. 11-2-0 is pathetic. I mean surprise us the other way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_al902013.investFSTDARU0400100000201310210356NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Interesting timing on this comment. The 12Z gfs hits N. Belize on 11/2 with a solid TC. This is Josh territory. Never mind that that is at hour 312 lol and has virtually no chance of verifying closely. 6Z 10/20 Sun GFS suggested a Yucatan (MX) hit on 11/5 with a fairly weak but strengthening TC 12Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits N. Belize with a solid TC on 11/2 18Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits NE Honduras with a hurricane on 11/5 0Z 10/21 Mon GFS hits Yucatan (MX) with a fairly weak TC on 11/2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 6Z 10/20 Sun GFS suggested a Yucatan (MX) hit on 11/5 with a fairly weak but strengthening TC 12Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits N. Belize with a solid TC on 11/2 18Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits NE Honduras with a hurricane on 11/5 0Z 10/21 Mon GFS hits Yucatan (MX) with a fairly weak TC It seems as though the 6z and 18z say November 5th landfall while the 0z and 12z show landfall on November 2nd and not as any surprise it has landfall all over the map but if it keeps showing up in later week runs then we may get a more general idea on that, and its output seems to coincide well with the modeled MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al902013.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201310210356 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END I'm almost as interested in the ULL becoming an STD/STS as the actual invest. Both too far away this time of the year, if either developed, to be of any interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al902013_al132013.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201310211320 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Should briefly waste the name Lorenzo per NHC forecast. Northeast half of it doesn't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I was wondering if we would get something like 13 developing. I sensed that the subtropical Atlantic would be favorable for TC/STC development during late October and November with the favorable SST anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 ...TWELFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS... 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 21Location: 28.9°N 54.9°WMoving: NNE at 7 mphMin pressure: 1008 mbMax sustained: 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Lolz, so lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Lolz, so lame. No cat 2's for this season looks like it's within reach. Did 1968 get an upgrade to one cat 2 with Gladys reanalysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 No cat 2's for this season looks like it's within reach. Did 1968 get an upgrade to one cat 2 with Gladys reanalysis? They haven't gotten to 1968 yet. Gladys has always been considered a Cat-2 landfall for FL on the official landfall list, even though HURDAT only shows Cat-1 winds. Such discrepancies are common in the pre-reanalyzed years-- and it'll be interesting to see how they reconcile that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 They haven't gotten to 1968 yet. Gladys has always been considered a Cat 2 landfall for FL on the official landfall list, even though HURDAT only shows Cat-1 winds. Such discrepancies are common in the pre-reanalyzed years-- and it'll be interesting to see how they reconcile that. Interesting. This season is so bizarrely quiet considering that 1997 was able to swing a major even with s super Nino revving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Lorenzo looked good for a while, really. Not looking as good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 You know what? You guys suck and so does the thread title. I care about Lorenzo. Get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 This thread jumped the shark about a month ago. Out of respect, it should probably be unpinned and allowed to sink deep into the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 This thread jumped the shark about a month ago. Out of respect, it should probably be unpinned and allowed to sink deep into the sea. I said that a couple of days ago, then an hour 324 18Z GFS or something showed a cyclone in the Caribbean, than Lorenzo added to a season that will probably have a record low ACE per named storm. I still say unpin it, and if Monday's 18Z GFS or whatever is right, this thread probably won't have sunk off page 1 of the threads by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'll take the over on the current NHC odds on TC development in the bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'll take the over on the current NHC odds on TC development in the bay of Campeche. Hard to take the under on 0% without a lemon or even a mention through 5 days, so I guess you couldn't lose. if that flareup can absolutely hug the Southern BoC and stay under he 20 to 30 knots of shear, I suppose it could briefly become a TC. Gets North of 20ºN it quickly gets into 30 knots plus of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Le-le-le-lemon time! (Doesn't have the same ring as cherry time, does it?) [attachment=106459:atl1.gif] 1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I don't remember it myself, but as long as Wiki insists a Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle just days before Thanksgiving, I won't completely give up on Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I don't remember it myself, but as long as Wiki insists a Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle just days before Thanksgiving, I won't completely give up on Florida. Katie was strong well away from the Gulf. It produced TS force winds here in Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 The ECMWF has a very vigorous wave with a MLC around day 7 which knowing the ECMWF is a sign that this may be a go for development especially with the FIM, GFS, NAVGEM, and CMC on board with the same area. Landfall is an unknown right now but reading the models right this could landfall anywhere from Puerto Rico to Houndoras but to be truthful this may be something to watch since the MJO is coming into the Caribbean and the vertical instability is higher than normal which is something that hasn't happened all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I don't remember it myself, but as long as Wiki insists a Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle just days before Thanksgiving, I won't completely give up on Florida. I remember Kate well. Was nearing the end of high school and had friends who were going to WDW for Thanksgiving and were freaking out about possible impacts. Was working on a holiday travel weather hotline during college in '88, and had to deal with people have similar panic attacks about Keith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Hurricane Kate was actually a significant, Cat-2 impact on the FL Panhandle. It came ashore with winds of 85 kt and Tallahassee, though inland, got pounded pretty hard by it. My good friend, Michael Laca, chased it near the landfall point and got some pretty dramatic footage. It wasn't a major at landfall, but it was the real thing. (By the way, it was a major out in the Gulf, with winds of 105 kt.) I completely dismiss Nov as a chasing month in the W Hemisphere-- to me, the season ends 31 Oct-- but Kate is a reminder that there are very rare, important exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 At 9-1 I'm still taking the over Le-le-le-lemon time! (Doesn't have the same ring as cherry time, does it?)[attachment=106459:atl1.gif]1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTSSOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOWCHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Le-le-le-lemon time! (Doesn't have the same ring as cherry time, does it?) You're right-- it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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