phil882 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 The 00z GFS does actually spin up a TC in the middle of the Atlantic from the large area of convection currently residing in the MDR, which undergoes a favorable trough interaction with an upper level PV anomaly currently residing to its west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Theres an area of interest north of Panama with the Monsoon Trough and the models bring it north and start developing it in the bahamas, IMO this area bears watching as this would be a climatologically favored area around this time of year and seems to have favorable conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Theres an area of interest north of Panama with the Monsoon Trough and the models bring it north and start developing it in the bahamas, IMO this area bears watching as this would be a climatologically favored area around this time of year and seems to have favorable conditions Which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 FIM model is pretty aggressive developing wx north of panama heading N towards Cuba/ fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 FIM model is pretty aggressive developing wx north of panama heading N towards Cuba/ fl. I posted the 0Z FIM-8 for Josh in his chase thread, but until I see more than that I'm not going to use the plural of model ('models') to get weenied about a South Florida threat. FIM-8 is generally supported by 15km FIM-9 on 0Z and 12Z runs. I'll wait a few days about alternating GFS runs with a Caribbean storm in 14 or 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Yeah, every time I see something and get excited about it, it just goes poof! The models aren't really latching solidly on any interesting features right now. That having been said, the Cuba/FL thing is interesting and fairly on-schedule climatologically-- perhaps a tad early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 from wiki: All major pre-season forecasts predicted an above average season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above-average to potentially hyperactive season in May; this prediction was slightly scaled down with its second forecast in early August. Other forecasting agencies forecast similar seasonal activity for the season. Official forecasts for number of named storms ranged from as low as 12 storms from the Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU COAPS) to as high as 20 from the NOAA The question is how did FSU come up with what looks like it will turn out to be the best number for this season?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 The real question is.....why is this thread still a sticky??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 The real question is.....why is this thread still a sticky??? :devilsmile: Bendy mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Bendy mod If we do get Hurricane King 2013 all the doubters will, oh, never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Should the thread be retitled from: Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 to Atlantic Tropical "Action" 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Should the thread be retitled from:Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 to Atlantic Tropical "Action" 2013. Cheer up. 6Z 15 km res FIM-9 has a 30 knot tropical wave on the Northern tip of the Yucatan that is *this close* to closing a surface circulation at Hour 168. The bad news, 30 knot SW winds at 250 mb, and one can clearly see the 500 mb center is well displaced Northwest Northeast of the nearly closed surface low. But I'm a silver lining guy, and will ignore the shear and the badly tilted system, and just lock in on the almost tropical depression forecast by the 6Z FIM-9 in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 But I'm a silver lining sliver of hope guy, and will ignore the shear and the badly tilted system, and just lock in on the almost tropical depression forecast by the 6Z FIM-9 in the Gulf. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Have we ever gone an entire season in the satalite era without at least one catagory 2 hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Have we ever gone an entire season in the satalite era without at least one catagory 2 hurricane? Only once - 1968 - which was an El Nino year. Despite not having any cat 2s, it did manage to tally up 5 cat 1s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 When was the last time we only had 1 hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 We had 2. the one that ruined Josh's perfectly imperfect season, then Ingrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 We had 2. the one that ruined Josh's perfectly imperfect season, then Ingrid. Which ruined Josh's chase by downgrading to a TS just before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 12Z Euro suggests a lemon in the Gulf in less than a week. GFS may be seeing same feature, although sub 1.5 inch PWs just West of its weak surface low (1012 mb) and 20 to 30 knots of shear may be why the GFS isn't more enthusiastic and loses its weak system after a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 The real question is.....why is this thread still a sticky??? Hush. It's 'cane season. That's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Hush. It's 'cane season. That's why. In severe cases like this, it's only a matter of time before the thread starter gets thrown into the LLC of a tropical depression to satisfy the hurricane gods. Sorry Josh, it's just how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 In severe cases like this, it's only a matter of time before the thread starter gets thrown into the LLC of a tropical depression to satisfy the hurricane gods. Sorry Josh, it's just how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THESOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ANDCONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILETHE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANDSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Agreed with the popcorn symbol. It's climatologically in a good spot and it just gives us something to talk about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Important when it tries to come out of the Caribbean into the Gulf. The 18Z GFS would have it entering the Gulf in 5 days and encountering nasty shear, while shear in the Caribbean stays favorable. If it stays in the Caribbean an extra day or two, the Gulf would be less hostile. If it never left the Caribbean, that would be best case for the potential Jerry, at least per the 18Z GFS 250 mb forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Looks like 96L has a closed llc... too bad its starting to be substantially impacted by strong southerly shear form the ULL to its west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Looks like 96L has a closed llc... too bad its starting to be substantially impacted by strong southerly shear form the ULL to its west. 000ABNT20 KNHC 280251 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. && HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO $$ Not very photogenic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 That Mandarin is mind-blowingly boring, in my opinion-- just ugly, cheap, low-potential, high-latitude schlock. Let's hope the SW Caribbean thing develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 That Mandarin is mind-blowingly boring, in my opinion-- just ugly, cheap, low-potential, high-latitude schlock. Let's hope the SW Caribbean thing develops. Wouldn't you rather chase a Karen? Best thing for the Caribbean system would be to stay in the Caribbean longer than the 18Z GFS forecasts it to stay down there. Edit to Add: 18Z FIM9 has a tropical storm coming through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf, then weakening rapidly as it approaches the Florida Panhandle, not quite landfall at the end of the 168 hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Sometimes I don't know how to interpret these weak systems from the NHC. Yes they are insignificant in the long run, but if you have a closed circulation with winds near gale force and its producing convection thats as organized as Humberto was for a 12-24 hour period, isn't that a tropical cyclone? These are the systems that really reveal how ambiguous the marginal TC identification process is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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