Trent Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The one plus is that northeast winds off Lake Erie are going to be beneficial to those along the lakeshore keeping temps colder. Things are definitely lining up for a decent hit for northeast Ohio. The mean track has been more or less consistent for the past few days, which is a good sign. If trends hold I could see CLE hoisting a watch for tomorrow afternoon's update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I like where we sit now that we are 48 hours out. For all potential storms this season, this one has had the most model consistency, at least locally, of any storm. I think 4-7" is a safe call for northern Ohio at this point. Considering on Saturday we had no problem accumulating an inch of snow when winds went northerly (during daylight under light returns, no less) this storm shouldn't have any problem accumulating given the rates it would likely produce. The CLE disco mentioned not issuing watches until neighboring offices collaborate. If 12z holds serve I think you could see a watch issued this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah, it was nice to see the Euro hold and the 6z GFS move towards the NAM/Euro. This looks good for a 4-8" snow event on Wednesday, however a possible fly in the ointment would be more rain and less snow if this tracks any farther north that the NAM/6z GFS show. BUF just issued a watch so let's see if CLE follows later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 How does this set up compare to March 10-11, 2011? I vaguely remember that set up being similar. That was also CLE's last official 6"+ storm before this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 How does this set up compare to March 10-11, 2011? I vaguely remember that set up being similar. That was also CLE's last official 6"+ storm before this season. That setup was similar in that we had to wait for a change to snow, but the storm drifted in from the WNW and ended up stalling over SE Ontario. The 500mb trough closed off overhead and slowly drifted east. The air coming in behind this storm will be colder and the system will move faster, so it's one of those situations where you may go from rain to powdery snow in 4 hours on Wednesday morning, with everything ending Wednesday evening. So far, the 12z NAM/RGEM have ticked north a bit and look good for the immediate lakeshore, but are more rain farther south. It'll be a really close call. I'm thinking that if the 850mb low tracks south of Cleveland and you guys don't stay rain for too long that 6"+ is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 How does this set up compare to March 10-11, 2011? I vaguely remember that set up being similar. That was also CLE's last official 6"+ storm before this season. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0310.php Not much at all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I like where we sit now that we are 48 hours out. For all potential storms this season, this one has had the most model consistency, at least locally, of any storm. I think 4-7" is a safe call for northern Ohio at this point. Considering on Saturday we had no problem accumulating an inch of snow when winds went northerly (during daylight under light returns, no less) this storm shouldn't have any problem accumulating given the rates it would likely produce. The CLE disco mentioned not issuing watches until neighboring offices collaborate. If 12z holds serve I think you could see a watch issued this afternoon. The 12z GFS is still a pretty good run for my area but the north shifts are making me nervous. I'm thinking CLE might hold off another forecast cycle before deciding on any headlines. If they do pull the trigger I'm thinking a watch probably for the NW and maybe the first row of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah, that March 2011 storm isn't the one I'm thinking of, must have the dates wrong in my head. The 12z GFS evolution is pretty sweet for these parts. There's a good slug of precip thrown back as the low deepens in PA. There's probably a good bit of enhancement potential there as well. I'm hoping today's 50+ weather frees up some lake ice in the central basin. Granted seasonal trends have not been our friend. The rich have gotten significantly richer storm after storm this season. Toledo and SE Michigan just can't be denied this winter. This storm isn't that far off from being a complete miss for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah, that March 2011 storm isn't the one I'm thinking of, must have the dates wrong in my head. The 12z GFS evolution is pretty sweet for these parts. There's a good slug of precip thrown back as the low deepens in PA. There's probably a good bit of enhancement potential there as well. I'm hoping today's 50+ weather frees up some lake ice in the central basin. Granted seasonal trends have not been our friend. The rich have gotten significantly richer storm after storm this season. Toledo and SE Michigan just can't be denied this winter. This storm isn't that far off from being a complete miss for here. I'm in whatever happens, happens mode with this winter. It would be great to see one last significant snowfall, at the same time the weather today says bring spring on. Barring any major shifts to the NW, the lakeshore counties should benefit from the frozen lake with a quick changeover. I'll go out on a limb and say the jackpot is somewhere between sandusky and detroit... what's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah, that March 2011 storm isn't the one I'm thinking of, must have the dates wrong in my head. The 12z GFS evolution is pretty sweet for these parts. There's a good slug of precip thrown back as the low deepens in PA. There's probably a good bit of enhancement potential there as well. I'm hoping today's 50+ weather frees up some lake ice in the central basin. Granted seasonal trends have not been our friend. The rich have gotten significantly richer storm after storm this season. Toledo and SE Michigan just can't be denied this winter. This storm isn't that far off from being a complete miss for here. Yeah I'm not completely optimistic for NWOH yet but I do like where I sit more than CLE. We've hit the jackpot on these close calls here several times this year (especially 1/5) but at this point I'm OK with rain or snow. I'm not OK if my forecast busts, but I'll survive whatever mother nature throws at TOL/BG this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Anyone have the euro output for CLE? Glad to see it hold a more SE solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah I'm not completely optimistic for NWOH yet but I do like where I sit more than CLE. We've hit the jackpot on these close calls here several times this year (especially 1/5) but at this point I'm OK with rain or snow. I'm not OK if my forecast busts, but I'll survive whatever mother nature throws at TOL/BG this time around. I think downtown Toledo and downtown Cleveland could get 4-6" from this. the 4km NAM has 6" for TOL/CLE and 8" for Detroit. The 6z GFS is relatively low, but the 12z GFS had 11-12" for all areas right near Lake Erie. I think that 11-12" is too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 CLE issued a watch... 6-8" for the lakeshore counties. Not sure what temps looked like on the euro but that's a great track for heavy snow in northern ohio. If anything, the euro has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 CLE issued a watch... 6-8" for the lakeshore counties. Not sure what temps looked like on the euro but that's a great track for heavy snow in northern ohio. If anything, the euro has been consistent. Looks like the Euro track had the jackpot right across Northern Ohio. Not a bad spot to be in the euro jackpot 36 hours out. GFS also a solid hit with 8-10" across the lakeshore counties. With a GFS/Euro blend, we should do quite well. This has potential to be the storm of the season for these parts. Once again, good luck getting an accurate measurement at the airport, as this will be wind blown. Hopefully tonight's disco out of CLE is better than this afternoon's! OHweather ... you picked the wrong week to be up in northern Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like the Euro track had the jackpot right across Northern Ohio. Not a bad spot to be in the euro jackpot 36 hours out. GFS also a solid hit with 8-10" across the lakeshore counties. With a GFS/Euro blend, we should do quite well. This has potential to be the storm of the season for these parts. Once again, good luck getting an accurate measurement at the airport, as this will be wind blown. Hopefully tonight's disco out of CLE is better than this afternoon's! OHweather ... you picked the wrong week to be up in northern Ohio! Yep, a gfs/euro blend is a as good as you can ask for at this point. Not saying the nam is wrong... But it's the last model I'd like to be riding. I wonder if it will correct SE overnight. The storm tracks ene which should prevent the wtod from driving too far north. Dry slot is the wild card. It sucks to waste precip on a mix but that should be pretty limited at the lakeshore. I'll say CLE ends up with 7.1". Biggest storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wonder what kind of damage the lake ice has been taking? Any possible enhancement or les afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 There were open patches along the shore when I drove home today. Surely the strong southerly winds have at least made it more slushy in the central basin. I think enhancement would be likely as 850s crash during the evening on Wednesday. A GFS / Euro blend is our best case scenario at this point. That'd probably be 8-10" and the best region wide storm of the season. If the euro caves to the NAM, it will be a major let down for that model. After today's mid to upper 50s and bright sun I don't think many in the region are going to take Wednesday's weather all too well. I'm at the point where I'm ready for spring, but if it's going to be a storm of magnitude like the GFS is showing, I'll gladly delay spring by a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like it's going to a close call for even the lakeshore counties now. Could be a huge snowfall gradient between the immediate lakeshore and those of us just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Tough forecast for CLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'll post a map and everything after the 12z runs. I'm really liking 6-10" for Cleveland. The 18z and 0z NAM scared me a bit, but the northern stream shortwave diving down so far east and relatively weak nature of the energy moving out of the SW doesn't really favor the really phased/NW/overamped solutions. The 6z NAM came back south a bit and was good for the lakeshore, and the 3z SREFs went south (and the 9z SREFs appear to be coming a bit farther south, but the whole run isn't done yet). There could be a few hours of IP/ZR tomorrow morning in the northernmost row or two of counties in North-central and Northeast Ohio, but the models show the potential for a few hours of heavy synoptic snow in the deformation zone after the mid-level low passes around noon and there should also be decent lake enhancement through all of tomorrow evening on a NNE flow as 850mb temps crater and mid-level moisture remains decent. There could honestly be near blizzard conditions and tomorrow's PM commute could be absolutely terrible. There will be a sharp cutoff once you get more than 20 or so miles from the lake it looks like, but for most of you you should be good. I definitely did pick the wrong week to be home haha, although if the NAM is right there will be a marginal severe risk here tomorrow, so at least there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 CLE has not had many easy forecasts this winter. Going to be a super tight gradient from lakeshore to Akron. I'll feel better once the NAM starts (hopefully) correcting south. The euro was once again a pretty good hit last night. There are some super juiced solutions and it's easy to get caught in that trap. Taking a realistic model QPF of 0.8-1.0" and then deducting 30% gives a realistic 5-8" of snow for these parts. If Lake Erie cooperates, maybe a few inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 12z NAM is south of the 6z run. I think you guys will be ok along the lakeshore. The NAM spits out 6-10" of snow through 5PM tomorrow which may be (probably is) overdone, but even if you almost cut that in half you get 3-6" plus another several hours of lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 12z NAM is south of the 6z run. I think you guys will be ok along the lakeshore. The NAM spits out 6-10" of snow through 5PM tomorrow which may be (probably is) overdone, but even if you almost cut that in half you get 3-6" plus another several hours of lake enhancement. That's quite a thump on the 12z NAM. As you mentioned it's most likely overdone... but even half in a short amount of time would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm amazed at the number of people who have no idea a major snowstorm is coming tomorrow. The 57 and sun has put people in full on spring mode. The morning commute could be rain or just the beginnings of snow, but by lunch it should be ripping. The evening commute tomorrow will probably be the worst commute of the year. Glad to see the NAM move towards the euro. Perhaps this will be the (long overdue) CLE jackpot storm. Feeling pretty good for at least 6" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm amazed at the number of people who have no idea a major snowstorm is coming tomorrow. The 57 and sun has put people in full on spring mode. The morning commute could be rain or just the beginnings of snow, but by lunch it should be ripping. The evening commute tomorrow will probably be the worst commute of the year. Glad to see the NAM move towards the euro. Perhaps this will be the (long overdue) CLE jackpot storm. Feeling pretty good for at least 6" now. I agree, seeing as how the models have been rapidly changing this year, especially after the previous storm, there is no doubt that this could go our way. Again no guarantees but it is going to be an interesting event considering the lack of preparedness. Not looking forward to the drive home, so an early changeover would be best so less people will be on the road... unless they close schools etc... in advance knowing the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Jogging south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Is that the Euro showing 10" for Cleveland next Tuesday? Bumping this again. Euro definitely was more or less consistent for snow across Northern Ohio the past week. Now let's hope things deliver. If some of the stronger QPF values are realized CLE could start to squeak into the top ten snowiest seasons list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Bumping this again. Euro definitely was more or less consistent for snow across Northern Ohio the past week. Now let's hope things deliver. If some of the stronger QPF values are realized CLE could start to squeak into the top ten snowiest seasons list. Hard to believe 7 days since that post. We'll see what the euro does this afternoon. My guess is a slight jog south... regardless, it has pretty much been locked in on the same track for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Starting to get excited for a good storm. Could very well be the largest of the season. I want to say we had an 8" storm last month. The winds and rates sshould be really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Starting to get excited for a good storm. Could very well be the largest of the season. I want to say we had an 8" storm last month. The winds and rates sshould be really impressive. Do you still have snow on the ground? I'm surprised there's still a decent amount IMBY despite the warm temps yesteray and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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