Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[NEOH]

Amazing how localized the 6" of snow was here. It's pure fluff so it will settle considerably through the late February sun.

Mayfield Heights is now at 110" this season.

 

Check out the visible satellite... looks like slush has formed in the open area east of the islands. Not sure if it will impact LES the next few days, but may cut back on accum's.

[OHweather]

Check out the visible satellite... looks like slush has formed in the open area east of the islands. Not sure if it will impact LES the next few days, but may cut back on accum's.

You're right about the slush. The crib cam shows that the lake is still "liquid" but there is a considerable amount of slush on top. That shouldn't hurt things too much unless it solidifies, then you guys may be in trouble. I'm hoping the gusty WSW winds this evening help churn things up a little bit. Tonight's potential looks very similar to last night's, with a trough pushing through right before rush hour. Looking at reports, a widespread 2-5" in Geauga County so I'm on track there. Ashtabula County needs work although there aren't any reports from the southern half of the county. Gaping report hole between Cleveland and Mesopotamia.

[LakeEffectOH]

OH weather...

 

What are your thoughts on next week's storm?  Do you think we will be hammered by this storm or do you think it will be in keeping with most of this year's Midwest/OH Valley synoptic storms and miss us except for some light snow?

[Trent]

I'm really surprised there weren't more 5"+ totals. The spotter network seems to be too thin considering the population.

[NEOH]

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I'm really surprised there weren't more 5"+ totals. The spotter network seems to be too thin considering the population.

 

I drove from South Rusell to Cedar/Richmond early this morning. Seemed like a very small area that received the heavier snow. Right around 91/Cedar was the heaviest from what I noticed.

[LakeEffectOH]

...Looking at the euro, the trend is south...Columbus gets the best snows in this run.  This winter has been great as far as persistent cold and snow cover, but, like last year, really craptastic for our area in terms of getting a big synoptic storm.  Hopefully we will have better luck next winter...maybe we can get a top 10 snow winter like the East Coast/SNE cities have been getting.  Frustrating!!!!!!!  Maybe the storm will trend north...hope springs eternal.

 

Maybe I should move to Bridgeport CT.  They normally get 30" per winter, but have got over 70" last winter and are poised to push that mark again this year after this next storm which is modeled to get a foot.  70" there is like Cleveland getting 140"

[NEOH]

...Looking at the euro, the trend is south...Columbus gets the best snows in this run.  This winter has been great as far as persistent cold and snow cover, but, like last year, really craptastic for our area in terms of getting a big synoptic storm.  Hopefully we will have better luck next winter...maybe we can get a top 10 snow winter like the East Coast/SNE cities have been getting.  Frustrating!!!!!!!  Maybe the storm will trend north...hope springs eternal.

 

Maybe I should move to Bridgeport CT.  They normally get 30" per winter, but have got over 70" last winter and are poised to push that mark again this year after this next storm which is modeled to get a foot.  70" there is like Cleveland getting 140"

 

Still a long ways off... but a blend of the gfs/euro wouldn't be all that bad for this area. I've tried to give up on winter but it keeps pulling me back in. Not sure we'll pull off a big synoptic storm but I like where we sit with this with a little breathing room. Before we know it we'll be sweating the mix line as it creeps north to YNG. But seriously, supression is probably the biggest concern.

[OHweather]

OH weather...

 

What are your thoughts on next week's storm?  Do you think we will be hammered by this storm or do you think it will be in keeping with most of this year's Midwest/OH Valley synoptic storms and miss us except for some light snow?

The PV really pulls out by Sunday-Monday which means if the storm phases well it would probably cut well to our NW. Right now I like that the models are bringing out the energy as a strung out mess, because if that happens we may get something. The models show multiple pieces of energy ejecting out of the west and possibly affecting Ohio starting Friday night and I think we'll get some precipitation os some kind. If we don't get a big strong storm, a prolonged overrunning snow event is possible (or maybe some ice as well)...if the storm phases we see 50 and rain IMO. It's interesting because the models aren't trying to phase things much right now, so we'll see.

 

I drove from South Rusell to Cedar/Richmond early this morning. Seemed like a very small area that received the heavier snow. Right around 91/Cedar was the heaviest from what I noticed.

I pulled up a long radar loop on COD's website and that sounds right. Extreme eastern Cuyahoga County mainly north of 422 and excluding the Euclid area saw relatively persistent light snow most of the night while areas farther south and especially west didn't see much. The squall along the trough dropped a quick 1-2" on the whole county...then behind the trough a few areas of enhanced snow persisted for a couple of hours and given the high ratios probably dropped another 1-3". One of those areas of enhancement was right over Mayfield and was probably helped by upslope on the hills in the heights suburbs. Given Mayfield seemed to do well in all three "phases" of the event while surrounding areas lacked in at least one phase, I'd say it was a local bullseye. The highest report from the county was 2.6" in Solon which is not at all representative, because anyone who live/drives to or through the I-271 corridor to work on a Tuesday morning drove through more than that...and that's hundreds of thousands of people. I was surprised no one squeaked out more than 4.1" in Geauga County, although there were only 3 reports from the county.

 

As for whether an advisory should be issued, I can see some reasons for and against...the big argument for one is the fact that warning criteria was technically squeaked out in a small, but highly populated area. The big argument against one is that 80% of the county didn't see advisory criteria. When factoring in that NWS CLE has warned/advised Cuyahoga may times in the past when only a small part of the county...IE just the Euclid area in a west flow or just the Solon/Chagrin area in a NW flow...is expected to marginally hit criteria, and the fact that even though most of the county saw their 1-3" of snow in a 2 hour window focused on rush hour, I'd say an advisory should have been issued. Obviously none of the "official" sources expected nearly this much snow this morning and hindsight is 20/20, but the impact combined with high-end advisory/marginal warning criteria being met in the eastern part of the county argues that an advisory would have been appropriate.

[LakeEffectOH]

The PV really pulls out by Sunday-Monday which means if the storm phases well it would probably cut well to our NW. Right now I like that the models are bringing out the energy as a strung out mess, because if that happens we may get something. The models show multiple pieces of energy ejecting out of the west and possibly affecting Ohio starting Friday night and I think we'll get some precipitation os some kind. If we don't get a big strong storm, a prolonged overrunning snow event is possible (or maybe some ice as well)...if the storm phases we see 50 and rain IMO. It's interesting because the models aren't trying to phase things much right now, so we'll see.

 

Thanks OHweather...maybe a current south trend isn't so bad at all, esp. with the PV pulling out.  Gives us some insurance anyway.

[LakeEffectOH]

Still a long ways off... but a blend of the gfs/euro wouldn't be all that bad for this area. I've tried to give up on winter but it keeps pulling me back in. Not sure we'll pull off a big synoptic storm but I like where we sit with this with a little breathing room. Before we know it we'll be sweating the mix line as it creeps north to YNG. But seriously, supression is probably the biggest concern.

 

After reading OH weather's post, it seems fairly easy for a north trend to occur with the retreating PV and any kind of phasing would quickly move us from a scattered light snow situation towards a warmer mixy to plain rain scenario.  It is good that LES has resumed here somewhat; the extra few inches we've had over the past couple of days has been an unexpected bonus.

[Trent]

...Looking at the euro, the trend is south...Columbus gets the best snows in this run.  This winter has been great as far as persistent cold and snow cover, but, like last year, really craptastic for our area in terms of getting a big synoptic storm.  Hopefully we will have better luck next winter...maybe we can get a top 10 snow winter like the East Coast/SNE cities have been getting.  Frustrating!!!!!!!  Maybe the storm will trend north...hope springs eternal.

 

 

It's been a good winter here if you don't look at the winter the East Coast, Midwest, and rest of the Ohio Valley are getting.

 

What makes this winter seem less impressive is that up and down the East Coast cities are already at 200%+ of their normal seasonal snowfalls. In Ohio CVG, TOL, and CMH are roughly double their seasonal averages already. Look at Detroit, Chicago, Indianapolis, Saint Louis ... all approaching double or over double their seasonal snowfalls.

 

But CLE, sandwiched between all of these sites from the East Coast to the Mississippi River that are double their seasonal snowfall average sits at a paltry 2" below seasonal average. Sure CLE is above average for snowfall this winter to date, but we're no where near anything historic or record breaking (yes, even accounting for some of the low ball measurements). 

 

CLE would need to be sitting at 120-140" right now to be having the same winter as the rest of the lower Midwest and East Coast.

 

Throw in a March 2008 style bomb and an April 2007 lake effect event and then we'll be there.

[LakeEffectOH]

It's been a good winter here if you don't look at the winter the East Coast, Midwest, and rest of the Ohio Valley are getting.

 

What makes this winter seem less impressive is that up and down the East Coast cities are already at 200%+ of their normal seasonal snowfalls. In Ohio CVG, TOL, and CMH are roughly double their seasonal averages already. Look at Detroit, Chicago, Indianapolis, Saint Louis ... all approaching double or over double their seasonal snowfalls.

 

But CLE, sandwiched between all of these sites from the East Coast to the Mississippi River that are double their seasonal snowfall average sits at a paltry 2" below seasonal average. Sure CLE is above average for snowfall this winter to date, but we're no where near anything historic or record breaking (yes, even accounting for some of the low ball measurements). 

 

CLE would need to be sitting at 120-140" right now to be having the same winter as the rest of the lower Midwest and East Coast.

 

Throw in a March 2008 style bomb and an April 2007 lake effect event and then we'll be there.

 

That's right...if you look at Cleveland's snowfall by itself, we are not doing too bad at all, but if you look at surrounding areas, we have been shortchanged.  What is especially frustrating is to see yet another storm that could potentially bury places from Cincinnati thru Columbus to the East Coast if you consider the Euro and the GGEM.  Chicago even may get several inches out of this while much of the guidance gives us something like 2" - 4". 

 

I've been reading some posts from the Toronto posters, and they are in the same "snow hole" situation as we are.  Bad meteorological luck, I guess.

[OHweather]

Looks like some really nice squalls pushing through right now, will probably drop 1-3" in a hurry on much of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties. Lots more snow out over the lake. Really am happy with how this event is performing. Some models turn the winds NW by morning which would disrupt any good band, but instability should still be decent enough for at least some snow showers through morning.

 

I don't usually use GR:3 for snow but didn't re-up my GR:Earth subscription yet, so this color table sucks for snow...but that's a lot of 20-30+ dBZ echoes right now. Just so you can see what you slept through

 

Hopefully this pushes places like Downtown and the western lakeshore in Cuyahoga over 3" and verifies my map there...that area kind of disappointed Monday night/Tuesday morning.

 

 

Edit...hot damn. Haven't seen CLE report a 1/16 SM visibility in quite a while

 

KCLE 260536Z 29010G16KT 1/16SM +SN VV006 M07/M09 A2999 RMK AO2 P0002 T10671094 $

[MAIDEsNow]

2.6" additional fluff overnight - 7.6" since Monday.

[Trent]

Wow. I wish I hadn't been sleeping through that. Looks like that might have been the most intense squall of the season.

I'm betting measurements across the region will come in a bit lower than what actually fell as the heavy fluff stopped around 2am and strong winds thereafter likely helped the snow to settle considerably by the time people woke up.

So for the 24 hour period between 2am yesterday and 2 am today most folks in Cuyahoga County would have received between 3 and 9 inches.

I'm generally not a fan of strung out advisories, but this was a case where one was needed considering the intensity of passing squalls bringing several periods of white out conditions.

[michsnowfreak]

Congrats to Toledo, OH...with 0.8" of snow yesterday, they have officially seen their snowiest winter on record!!!! Since I believe 1885

1.) 2013-14: 73.5" and counting

2.) 1977-78: 73.1"

3.) 1981-82: 68.2"

4.) 1895-96: 63.7"

5.) 1966-67: 60.6"

[NEOH]

3.5" overnight. Nice shot of the squall OHWeather. That must have been intense... wish that would have happended during daylight hours. 5.6" two day total here. Sure doesn't seem like it as the fluff settles quickly.

[LakeEffectOH]

3.5" overnight. Nice shot of the squall OHWeather. That must have been intense... wish that would have happended during daylight hours. 5.6" two day total here. Sure doesn't seem like it as the fluff settles quickly.

3.5" is about what I measured this am.  Had 2" night before last and 1.5" on Monday...so a total of around 7" since Monday.

[LakeEffectOH]

Congrats to Toledo, OH...with 0.8" of snow yesterday, they have officially seen their snowiest winter on record!!!! Since I believe 1885

1.) 2013-14: 73.5" and counting

2.) 1977-78: 73.1"

3.) 1981-82: 68.2"

4.) 1895-96: 63.7"

5.) 1966-67: 60.6"

Toledo is just out of the Cleveland Snow Hole.  CLE hasn't gotten to its normal snowfall yet while cities to its north, south, east & west have, across the board, exceeded their annual snowfall by 150% to over 200%.  I'd love to see a map of 2013 - 2014 snowfall totals relative to average.  There would be a nice hole over NE Ohio that stands out like a sore thumb.

[NEOH]

3.5" is about what I measured this am.  Had 2" night before last and 1.5" on Monday...so a total of around 7" since Monday.

 

Still snowing out there now. We'll probably get anther decent shot of snow as the band pushes back north as winds come around more westerly.

 

CLE has exceeded their average snowfall, but only by a few inches. As you and Trent mentioned, our departure from average is very low compared to just about everywhere around us. I'm over 100 inches on the season so no complaints... outside of not having a big dog yet. This weekend still look interesting.

[Trent]

This morning's lake effect finally put CLE over their seasonal total. The airport averages 68.2" per season.

The contest total on the forum is for only Nov-March, so it's several inches short because it excludes April and October snow averages.

[LakeEffectOH]

Still snowing out there now. We'll probably get anther decent shot of snow as the band pushes back north as winds come around more westerly.

 

CLE has exceeded their average snowfall, but only by a few inches. As you and Trent mentioned, our departure from average is very low compared to just about everywhere around us. I'm over 100 inches on the season so no complaints... outside of not having a big dog yet. This weekend still look interesting.

For this weekend's system, The GFS is pretty much where it has been the past couple of days.  The GGEM has trended ever so slightly farther north, so that's good news.  The 0z Euro is almost a miss to the south hammering places like Cincinnati.  Hopefully when the PV somewhat reconfigures as forecast it will allow the heaviest snow into NE Ohio.  I say we're about due. 

[LakeEffectOH]

This morning's lake effect finally put CLE over their seasonal total. The airport averages 68.2" per season.

The contest total on the forum is for only Nov-March, so it's several inches short because it excludes April and October snow averages.

At least we will have above normal snow this year.  That's more than I can say for the past couple of winters.

[dta1984]

Been snowing moderately in Solon the past few hours. Looks like the sun is peeking out at home according to my webcam.

[LakeEffectOH]

Been snowing moderately in Solon the past few hours. Looks like the sun is peeking out at home according to my webcam.

On radar, looks like the band is weakening and swinging more towards the northeast.

[NEOH]

This morning's lake effect finally put CLE over their seasonal total. The airport averages 68.2" per season.

The contest total on the forum is for only Nov-March, so it's several inches short because it excludes April and October snow averages.

 

Thanks for clarifying... didn't even realize the annual avg. was 68".

[NEOH]

12z Euro came north, and shows a nice hit for most of OH over the weekend. LakeEffectOH won't be denied...

[OHweather]

Wow. I wish I hadn't been sleeping through that. Looks like that might have been the most intense squall of the season.

I'm betting measurements across the region will come in a bit lower than what actually fell as the heavy fluff stopped around 2am and strong winds thereafter likely helped the snow to settle considerably by the time people woke up.

So for the 24 hour period between 2am yesterday and 2 am today most folks in Cuyahoga County would have received between 3 and 9 inches.

I'm generally not a fan of strung out advisories, but this was a case where one was needed considering the intensity of passing squalls bringing several periods of white out conditions.

Was this morning's commute as bad? I had a friend send me pictures from 480 in Maple Heights this morning at around 9:40 of near white out conditions, but the radar during the heart of the commute didn't look too bad.

 

I definitely think an advisory would have been appropriate here. Criteria was technically hit on the 24 hour basis of 6"+, was hit on the 12 hour basis of 4"+ yesterday morning and was approached this morning, and the heaviest snow yesterday fell during rush hour. I think had CLE forecasted these amounts they would've pulled the trigger due to all of these factors.

 

There could be a decent burst tomorrow morning as well as another potent shortwave goes by. The crib cam shows the ice has solidified a bit so I think there will be an uptick a few hours before the trough moves through, a heavy burst with the trough, and then things quickly die down after...all and all think another 2-4" on the east side tomorrow morning is reasonable...some places may see 5", some places on the west side may not hit 2".

 

This weekend's storm is looking interesting. The 12z Euro almost phased the system on Sunday but just missed...most of the models still don't show phasing which would result in all snow and potentially an extended period of overrunning snow. I'm still worried things try to phase a bit more and we sweat p-type issues, but right now the models are saying no. Although there is a bit of a SE ridge, the flow is rather zonal and the energy not that strong, so if we don't see a phase we may not see this trend much farther NW. But the 12z Euro was close so, I still don't think a phased storm that brings mixing farther north than today's models show is off the table yet.

[Trent]

Was this morning's commute as bad? I had a friend send me pictures from 480 in Maple Heights this morning at around 9:40 of near white out conditions, but the radar during the heart of the commute didn't look too bad.

 

I definitely think an advisory would have been appropriate here. Criteria was technically hit on the 24 hour basis of 6"+, was hit on the 12 hour basis of 4"+ yesterday morning and was approached this morning, and the heaviest snow yesterday fell during rush hour. I think had CLE forecasted these amounts they would've pulled the trigger due to all of these factors.

 

There could be a decent burst tomorrow morning as well as another potent shortwave goes by. The crib cam shows the ice has solidified a bit so I think there will be an uptick a few hours before the trough moves through, a heavy burst with the trough, and then things quickly die down after...all and all think another 2-4" on the east side tomorrow morning is reasonable...some places may see 5", some places on the west side may not hit 2".

 

This weekend's storm is looking interesting. The 12z Euro almost phased the system on Sunday but just missed...most of the models still don't show phasing which would result in all snow and potentially an extended period of overrunning snow. I'm still worried things try to phase a bit more and we sweat p-type issues, but right now the models are saying no. Although there is a bit of a SE ridge, the flow is rather zonal and the energy not that strong, so if we don't see a phase we may not see this trend much farther NW. But the 12z Euro was close so, I still don't think a phased storm that brings mixing farther north than today's models show is off the table yet.

 

This morning's commute was hit or miss. I had no problems, but just after I got to work there were some intense squalls. So I'm sure quite a few people got caught in them during rush hour.

 

It was a very oddly handled lake effect event that didn't get much attention (both from the NWS and local media outlets) despite it being a pretty good set up and producing decent amounts.

 

I'm thinking tomorrow morning's rush could be pretty bad on the east side as that wave slides through in the morning.

 

On an interesting note, last night was the first 1"+ snowfall event where CLE measured more snow than I did since mid December.

Back in 09/10, CLE measured more snow than me in about 80% of events, now it seems to be the reverse. 

[OHweather]

This morning's commute was hit or miss. I had no problems, but just after I got to work there were some intense squalls. So I'm sure quite a few people got caught in them during rush hour.

 

It was a very oddly handled lake effect event that didn't get much attention (both from the NWS and local media outlets) despite it being a pretty good set up and producing decent amounts.

 

I'm thinking tomorrow morning's rush could be pretty bad on the east side as that wave slides through in the morning.

 

On an interesting note, last night was the first 1"+ snowfall event where CLE measured more snow than I did since mid December.

Back in 09/10, CLE measured more snow than me in about 80% of events, now it seems to be the reverse. 

It was odd. Everyone missed Monday, including myself. I wasn't expecting much. But once we saw on Monday in an all around marginal and short lived event that it can snow decently and that the hi-res models (which showed literally no snow on Monday) weren't going to handle this correct, some alarm bells should've gone off.

 

Channel 3 on Monday night called for evening flurries tapering off overnight which sort of made me cringe...everyone else just said light snow showers and light accumulations. Channel 19 said 1-4" of lake effect during the day Tuesday which was kind of on the right track but didn't mention any trouble for the morning commute. The kicker was after Tuesday morning happened and impacted everyone in the Cleveland metro, they all went back on the air Tuesday evening and called for more light snow and flurries and maybe an inch or two of accumulation Tuesday night through Wednesday. Channel 8 said "maybe more fresh candy coatings like we saw this morning." (a 6" "candy coating"?) It was strange. I'd really venture to guess that no one forecasted anything significant because none of the hi-res models showed anything significant. But that's just a guess and I don't know. I was rather baffled...then everyone (news media and NWS) played it off like significant snow didn't fall. Just ugh, it was frustrating and perplexing to watch play out. I haven't looked at what any of them were saying today so maybe they mentioned how much actually fell since I last checked?

 

The squall last night looked like it hit CLE better than areas closer to the lake, which is probably how they pulled that off. I think part of the issue is 09/10 saw a lot more NW flow events, so even if you may get generally low measurements at an open air field, they still saw better snow more consistently.