Mailman Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Still there for us. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GFS ensembles looked pretty favorable, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Still there. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Still there. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html GFS is still the only one out to sea. Either its on crack or it is the new King... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Euro is nice an juicy... Not sure how much of this is snow, but 1.6 inches of precip for southern AGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 147 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013 OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ013>016-020>023-029-073-WVZ001-002-231930- ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-CARROLL OH- CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-INDIANA PA- JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-TUSCARAWAS OH-WASHINGTON PA- WESTMORELAND PA- 147 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013 ...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... AT 142 PM EST...A SNOW SQUALL WAS ALONG A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUBOIS TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CANTON OHIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 1/2 MILE...WHILE PRODUCING A COATING OF SNOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 40 MPH WHEN THE SNOW SQUALL PASSES. HIGHWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE... I-376 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 52. I-376 PARKWAY WEST BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 64. I-79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58 AND 106. I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 53. I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 96. PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. LAT...LON 4072 7879 4063 7884 4026 8100 4066 8146 4066 8125 4073 8123 4073 8110 4089 8109 4094 8086 4091 8081 4091 8053 4100 8052 4127 7887 4118 7877 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Lets hope the GFS isn't correct... 1024 x 768 (151.49K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Lets hope the GFS isn't correct... 1024 x 768 (151.49K) Seems like the GFS has been the outlier. Both Euro and Canadian have us getting hammered. I haven't seen the others yet.t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 We'll see if that squall line holds together long enough to give us a quick whitening of the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Storm next week looks interesting. I think tonights 00z GFS will start to come on board with the other models with a more west solution if that is indeed going to be the final outcome. If it happens like the Euro, I wouldn't mind looking forward to an early start to the Thanksgiving break. Luckily we are having the family at our place, so I don't have any travel worries. Light coating of snow on the ground right now with gusty windows. Had my daughter outside, she wanted to catch her first snow flakes on her tongue for the season lol. Hoping for a fluffy inch or so overnight. Sure feels like winter out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (38.39K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GFS not wavering still out to sea Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 55% 1400 x 1000 (104.23K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE LOOKS TO STILL BE GOING IN HIGH GREAT ATLEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOLIDNORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST LAYER THANINCLUDED THE ENTIRETY OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WHILEINVERSION HEIGHT DO START TO FALL OFF...THIS SHOULD NOT REALLYHAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON LOWERING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THENORTHER TIER...RATHER THE SLOW SHIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TOA MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DO JUST THAT. THE MODELCONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD START TO HAPPEN DURING THEEVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SNOW BANDSSHIFTING NORTHWARD AND ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROMSOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER INCH OF TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLESUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE SHIFTINGBANDS...WITH VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FARTHERSOUTH.AFTER THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...A BIT OF A QUIET INTERLUDELOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW 0C...SO HIGHS LOOK TO BESTUCK IN THE 30S.THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY HIGHSPREAD WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT/FILLING OF THEASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. ASSUCH...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROBLEMATIC. IN TRYINGTO DISCERN TRENDS FROM THE GUIDANCE...A FEW THINGS HAVE BECOMERATHER CLEAR IN TERMS OF THE DPROG/DT PERSPECTIVE. FIRST OFALL...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ALL FAVOR SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAMINTERACTION AND INFLUENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVERTHE AREA. AS SUCH...A DEEPER SYSTEM TRACKS MUCH FARTHER NORTH ONALL OF THESE MODELS. THEY HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TO THE NORTHWESTOF THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS...AND CONTINUE TO BE SO. IN FACT...THEYARE INCREASINGLY NORTHWEST IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THAT THE NAMIS BY FAR THE MOST NORTHWESTERN OUTLYING SOLUTION...IT WAS LARGELYDISCARDED IN FAVOR OF THE MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ECMWF ANDCANADIAN SOLUTIONS THAT REALLY HAVE ONLY TRENDED SLIGHTLY FROMTHEIR 00Z RUNS TO 12Z RUNS TODAY. AS SUCH...IT SEEMS AT THE VERYLEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE LIKELYTO SEE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS IDEA ALSO LARGELYDISCOUNTS THE GFS...AS ITS TREND IS DEEP WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAMUNLIKE ANY OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE SYSTEM AND HENCE MAINTAINS ASPLIT FLOW WITH LITTLE INTEGRATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTUREAND ENERGY INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS. WHILE THE GFS IS DRY FORBASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF ALLOTHER GUIDANCE IS TO GO MUCH MORE MOIST...SO THIS IDEA WASFOLLOWED AND LIKELY POPS WERE ADDED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OFTHE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY.AS DIFFICULT AS DETERMINING APPROPRIATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATIONWAS...IT TRULY WAS THE EASY PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALSO LIKELY BE QUITE MARGINAL AT TIMES AS ITPASSES IF A CANADIAN/ECMWF TYPE SCENARIO BEARS OUT. BOTH ECMWF ANDCANADIAN PROJECTIONS BRING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO NEARLY 0CFROM DUBOIS TO PITTSBURGH TO SOUTHEASTERN OHIO DURING THE HEIGHTOF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICHARE HIGHLY COARSE...SUGGEST AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WOULD INTERCEPTMUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THESURFACE MAY REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING THEENTIRE ARRAY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO PLAY AS THESE SOLUTIONSWOULD LIKELY SUGGEST A SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO POSSIBLYRAIN THEN BACK TO SNOW KIND OF SCENARIO. ALL OF THIS IS VERYSPECULATIVE IN NATURE AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS FAR FROM BEINGDETERMINISTIC AT THIS TIME...SO TO ADEQUATELY COVER THE ARRAY OFPOSSIBILITIES...LIKELY RAIN/SNOW WAS CARRIED FOR THE WARMER HALFOF THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION...WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF SLEET/FREEZINGRAIN GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FARTHER NORTH ANDWEST...THINGS STILL SEEM MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THECOLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Latest NAM--1800--has Pgh getting 2.8 inches of snow. I think this is going to be another storm where 30-50 miles in either direction could make a big difference. So get ready to hear all of the TV Weather guy & gals giving us the old "It all depend on the track of the storm" line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The more it intensifies, the further west it will come. This is, of course, a double-edged sword, as the closer it comes the higher probability of it being a cold rain rather than snow. Seems pretty typical, and either way it looks like it may be rain down here in the southern valleys (Morgantown). Pittsburgh will certainly have a better chance of accumulating snows. I don't see much of a HP presence on the models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Any of my fellow Bethel Parkers just experience that squall that just went through? White out conditions. I probably picked up a very quick inch. I was driving home in it and people were getting stuck on the hills. Thank God I have 4 wheel drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS comes NW, but still keeps us on the sidelines. Compromise between tonights 00z GFS and 12z Euro would likely yield an interesting solution. One thing I have noticed is that it seems there is a failry thin band of juicier precip on the models that would stay all snow, so you don't want this coming to far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 still looks like most of the models are suggesting at least 6" to me, but I'm just an amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS00z snow depth by Wed 4pm Reduced 47% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 A little bit of everything. Snow to rain back to snow. Still there. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 ^ Yeah... that'd probably be a mess.I'm feeling the GFS ensemble. I was thinking about posting one of the ensemble member snow depth maps on Facebook just to stir people up a bit. Hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Warm tongue....ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Warm tongue....ugh Yuck... seems like the Euro has a warm tongue as well judging from the snow map in the Central PA thread. Unfortunately 9 times out of 10 the warm tongue is under estimated on the models. We have all had a forecast with a changeover happening around say 4am only to hear the dreaded ping ping on the windows hours ahead of schedule. Hopefully this thing tracks a little farther E.Either way it would be a terrible travel day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Pretty classic Huron connection showing up on the radar this morning. I wonder if that will hold together long enough to bring some snow showers to our area as the windws shift more N to S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 After looking at the models a bit more closely, I wonder if a faster phase would help us out. It looks like that low in the lakes is the primary culprit for the WAA ahead of the storm. Assuming a faster phase wouldn't bring this to far NW that could help shutoff the WAA sooner and allow the main storm to deepen sooner, pulling in more cold air. I could be way off base here, but just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12Z Nam has us getting 9.5 inches as the storm really wraps up. I still don't believe it will hold but it's nice to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I can hardly wait to be disappointed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Keep the faith. You never know. Thanksgiving, November 26th 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I want, I want. Accuweather just gave me 1-3, no thanks. I have to keep reminding myself that it's only November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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