Potential Winter Storm March 6-7

[nyblizz44]

Not because this suits my snow needs but because it is the most rational thing I have heard all the day. well said: the devil is indeed in the details. will be very interesting to see if in 2 hrs the Euro catches that SW in upstateif so hearts will be afflutering around here

Honestly if we don't get agreement from the Euro, its still hard to bet against the Euro. What I will give NCEP though, especially the GFS, as it continues to show that shortwave retrograding back into N NYS on 12z, being an American model and slightly better with those small disturbances I will lean some heavier weight towards NCEP. Like its been stated before, the block doesn't seem to be the issue here, if it was strictly that I would ride the Euro into the sunset. This case it looks like the small scale features, ie that shortwave, create enough of a split in the ULL to allow for very brief height rises on the EC, which allows the precip to barrel North and then likewise the N stream to phase. This is incredibly complex with the smaller players and I'm not convinced the Euro is seeing that, nor is it necessarily geared to. This may be why the North American models are picking up what the Euro isn't .

[nzucker]

Close to 3" qpf near BOS !

Some of that is rain though...the low gets so wrapped up that it forces warm air inland. 

[Zir0b]

Man, I don't care if I see heavy wind-swept rain from this, I just want the GFS to be right so we can put an end to Euro-ism 

[jm1220]

On one hand, it's exciting to see the low trend north on some of these models but also this will mean much more wind and coastal impact up here. The nearly stalled low will have plenty of time to generate huge waves, and the winds will likely mean flooding for quite a number of coastal residents. Hopefully the low waits until it's east of us before bombing and stalling-this would at least mean we have N or NE winds which would lessen any surge.

[Allsnow]

The surface temps are ugly.

[Zir0b]

Honestly if we don't get agreement from the Euro, its still hard to bet against the Euro. What I will give NCEP though, especially the GFS, as it continues to show that shortwave retrograding back into N NYS on 12z, being an American model and slightly better with those small disturbances I will lean some heavier weight towards NCEP. Like its been stated before, the block doesn't seem to be the issue here, if it was strictly that I would ride the Euro into the sunset. This case it looks like the small scale features, ie that shortwave, create enough of a split in the ULL to allow for very brief height rises on the EC, which allows the precip to barrel North and then likewise the N stream to phase. This is incredibly complex with the smaller players and I'm not convinced the Euro is seeing that, nor is it necessarily geared to. This may be why the North American models are picking up what the Euro isn't .

Not just the American models anymore. RGEM @ 48 hrs looks similar to the GFS at the 5H level, and UKMET not quite to GFS proportions yet but significantly furthern north from 0Z..Eastern SNE gets hit pretty good

[Bari]

On one hand, it's exciting to see the low trend north on some of these models but also this will mean much more wind and coastal impact up here. The nearly stalled low will have plenty of time to generate huge waves, and the winds will likely mean flooding for quite a number of coastal residents. Hopefully the low waits until it's east of us before bombing and stalling-this would at least mean we have N or NE winds which would lessen any surge.

your gain there will be the loss of our only win here

[jm1220]

Honestly if we don't get agreement from the Euro, its still hard to bet against the Euro. What I will give NCEP though, especially the GFS, as it continues to show that shortwave retrograding back into N NYS on 12z, being an American model and slightly better with those small disturbances I will lean some heavier weight towards NCEP. Like its been stated before, the block doesn't seem to be the issue here, if it was strictly that I would ride the Euro into the sunset. This case it looks like the small scale features, ie that shortwave, create enough of a split in the ULL to allow for very brief height rises on the EC, which allows the precip to barrel North and then likewise the N stream to phase. This is incredibly complex with the smaller players and I'm not convinced the Euro is seeing that, nor is it necessarily geared to. This may be why the North American models are picking up what the Euro isn't .

The Euro has better resolution than the GFS, so it should be able to pick up S/W that the GFS doesn't. But other fine-resolution models seem to have that S/W over upstate NY so I don't think it's a matter of resolution.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 84 it's stalled a bit south of the benchmark. All of eastern New England still getting it hard. Some light wrap around stuff still making it as far west as NE NJ.

 

Snow maps show 2-4" for northern NJ. Much more for Wechester County north and east.

 

The GFS is probably a 50 mile shift NW from getting the really good CCB into the area.

[MJO812]

Ukie is now more north. Next up the euro .

[nyblizz44]

Hr 84 it's stalled a bit south of the benchmark. All of eastern New England still getting it hard. Some light wrap around stuff still making it as far west as NE NJ.

 

Snow maps show 2-4" for northern NJ. Much more for Wechester County north and east.

do you have the total precp map for this GFS run?

[NorthNJwx]

On one hand, it's exciting to see the low trend north on some of these models but also this will mean much more wind and coastal impact up here. The nearly stalled low will have plenty of time to generate huge waves, and the winds will likely mean flooding for quite a number of coastal residents. Hopefully the low waits until it's east of us before bombing and stalling-this would at least mean we have N or NE winds which would lessen any surge.

 

The GFS and NAM verbatim actually aren't as bad as they may appear at first glance in that respect. I've been looking at the windfields on the Wunderground model graphics, and the wind direction fairly quickly comes around to due N in coastal NJ and western LI on these runs. There's still a period of very strong ENE-NE-NNE winds first, but the easterly component goes away relatively early on. The Euro is a much, much worse scenario, at least for central NJ south - it keeps the easterly component throughout the entire event. The benefit of the further north low is that it allows the wind to come around to an offshore direction. 

[sferic]

Assuming this hits NYC and surrounding areas, when might the first flakes trickle down? Does anybody forsee any warnings hoisted by tomorrow?

[goombatommy]

Ukie is now more north. Next up the euro .

 

How much further north?

[Stormlover74]

The surface temps are ugly.

 

The surface temps on the gfs have always been ugly. I still contend whether it snows or not we don't see much of any accumulations from what falls during the morning and afternoon hours. And even at night its not as if temps crash. If they stay near or above freezing we'll still need pretty heavy snowfall rates to pick up decent amounts. And of course I'm talking about areas in and around NYC, NE/Central NJ not those N&W folks.

[dbc]

do you have the total precp map for this GFS run?

[jm1220]

your gain there will be the loss of our only win here

?

 

How would us getting part of the storm cause you (I presume you're posting from the DC/Balt area) to lose? I also wouldn't count a "win" as being a huge beach-pounding storm that will likely cause more flooding when thousands of people in this area still have no homes due to Sandy. Parts of my town still literally look like an abandoned wasteland.

[nyblizz44]

do you have the total precp map for this GFS run?

Thx v much

[friedmators]

Hr 84 it's stalled a bit south of the benchmark. All of eastern New England still getting it hard. Some light wrap around stuff still making it as far west as NE NJ.

 

Snow maps show 2-4" for northern NJ. Much more for Wechester County north and east.

 

The GFS is probably a 50 mile shift NW from getting the really good CCB into the area.

Sounding are warm pretty much everywhere below 925 mb.  So we need it to come down.

[IsentropicLift]

do you have the total precp map for this GFS run?

0.75-1.00" for areas NW of the city, the city itself and western Long Island. 1.25"+ for Monmouth County eastward, just kissing Staten Island. 1.50"+ for basically all of the Jersey shore south of Sandy Hook. Twin forks up through Maine 2.00"+. JP zone of 3"+ for the MA coast SE of Boston. Impressive to see such high amounts on the lower res GFS.

[friedmators]

Assuming this hits NYC and surrounding areas, when might the first flakes trickle down? Does anybody forsee any warnings hoisted by tomorrow?

If it snows it wont stick. 

[TheManWithNoFace]

Lots of rain in this one for anyone south of 78/east of the Turnpike at the start. Ocean temps running in the chilly upper 30's/around 40 should mean that once the thing occludes are we turn the screaming easterlies off we can get good snow into the city after hour 54 or so. Think someone can get dryslotted on LI too with this one...

[IsentropicLift]

If it snows it wont stick. 

The GFS verbatim would stick for anybody outside of the immediate city. Snowfall maps give measureable snow for everyone north and west of the city with Weschester and Rockland Counties getting the most in our forum.

[MJO812]

3-6 on the snowmap for NYC

[IsentropicLift]

Assuming this hits NYC and surrounding areas, when might the first flakes trickle down? Does anybody forsee any warnings hoisted by tomorrow?

If the Euro comes on board you'll likely see watches hoisted with the evening package. If it doesn't then they will wait for the 00z runs. Right now confidence is low for a warning type event.

[jm1220]

If it snows it wont stick. 

If it comes down hard enough it can certainly stick. Snow has stuck well into April in this area when it came down heavy. I remember April 7, 2003 very well-we had 7" of snow on the coast in the morning and afternoon hours. And we're still a month away from that. The issue is more that we have a lousy initial airmass and an easterly marine fetch that can cause mixing. I doubt all of what the NYC area gets is snow, same for Boston and E Mass. We have to rely on dynamics.

[sn0w]

3-6 on the snowmap for NYC

Could you post please?  Also, how much QPF does the Ukie bring?

 

 

Thanks

[ace0927]

Wow, monster hit for NYC this run. CCB sits over the area as the low stalls and spins offshore. Very potent pressure gradient as well with the 552dm block over Quebec. 

no - monster hit for Boston.

[JSantanaNYC]

no - monster hit for Boston.

that will certainly be funny.. if Boston is the winner at the end of this.

[RU848789]

If it snows it wont stick. 

Sigh, we see this every year, once we get to March.  Accumulation = snowfall rate - snow melt rate, so as long as the snow is falling at least at a moderate rate, snow will accumulate.  And then, once there is a snow layer on the ground, the melting rate decreases, as that snow layer, by definition, is at 32F, so the melting from "the ground" no longer is an issue.  Melting from air temps above 32F and indirect sunlight, during the day, are still an issue, but the overall melting rate is decreased.