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Blizzard of 2013 Forecast Discussion Part II


forkyfork

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oh BY THE WAY ...TWC new figures for CPK projecting 3-6 ....any 1 still want 2 argue this isnt a major bust for NYC?? unbelievably Gregory of Fox still going with 7-12 & he is knowldegable

 

7-12" is the right forecast probably...the Park should have 5-6" right now as they reported 2.5" at 7pm, and they'll add another 4-6" at least as the deformation band sets up.

 

I predicted 16-20" for NYC though and 14-18" for JFK...going to be hard for those numbers to verify, I think, unless this one still holds some surprises. People will get more snow than they are thinking, but not as much as originally thought. The winds haven't been truly blizzard-like either. 

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euro and nam both had more than 1.0 after 7pm and about 0.5 from 10pm on. It looks like we'll be able to tack that much on and could very well bring a large area to close to 10

 

at 7pm central park was at 2.5. Since about 8 its been snowing 1in/hr so they're probably closing in on 4 or 5  at the park

KNYC reporting .09" in last two hrs at 30 degrees. It would take ratio of 20 to 1 to give inch an hr snow rates and we are much closer to 10 to 1 anyways. An extra 1" last 2 hrs at most

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Nick is figuring that the bands that set up over night will push up the totals, which the models have agreed with.

Looks to me like the band is moving west but is weakening based on radar. Far be it for me to say ... and I like Nick Gregory, but not sure if he's gonna turn out to be right on this one.

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KNYC reporting .09" in last two hrs at 30 degrees. It would take ratio of 20 to 1 to give inch an hr snow rates and we are much closer to 10 to 1 anyways. An extra 1" last 2 hrs at most

Hopefully we get better snow growth soon because what we have won't come close to cutting it, at least where I am. Radar shows that it should be probably heavy snow, I'd say it's barely moderate out there with sand flakes.

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I will say, looks like a good band is about to set up for W LI and NYC/E NJ, so hopefully here is where we start to rack up amounts. As the columnb continues to cool, ratios should go up.

3-6 is our best case scenario...i have 1" now...how pathetic (after reading the NE obs thread)

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We still have another 4-6 hours left of this storm.

awesome - 6 hours ago we had 15" ahead of us, not 3-6", jump for joy

 

this should teach people around this forum, TEMP ON SOUNDING PROFILES MAKE A DIFFERENCE, NOT IMAGES ON MODEL MAPS

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Jan 26 2011 was a bust on the high side. We got a lot more than expected from the overrunning

We had a foot of snow in 3 hours in some cases from the main upper low-associated precip. I had thunder sleet before that happened. I was optimistic that this could happen tonight even despite mixing, but we mixed for way too long and it looks like the phase will be too far east for most of us to really max out on this.

 

Watching this band closely that's now developing over western Long Island-this could dump some healthy snow totals. 10" isn't out of the question if it sits around for a while. Remember, we're in this until probably around dawn. We have a ways to go here. I'd say though generally 6-8".

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I went for a jeb-walk (jog) earlier. While the storm is a bust on the low side it still is beautiful compared to this winter (except November 7) and last "winter" (except October 29).  This is a real winter; not an extraordinary one but a real one nevertheless.

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Upton's forecast for Westchester was in the 14-16" range. Most of us have 8-12" right now with about 3-4 hours of snow left, so that should verify. When we talked about getting 18-24" here, those were extreme totals based on a few model runs showing the low closing earlier. We got about what was expected.

I went for a jeb-walk (jog) earlier. While the storm is a bust on the low side it still is beautiful compared to this winter (except November 7) and last "winter" (except October 29).  This is a real winter; not an extraordinary one but a real one nevertheless.

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