WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Upton's new map has me at 8" and parts of LI over 26"....LOL 8" in a storm like this is disappointing I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nick is figuring that the bands that set up over night will push up the totals, which the models have agreed with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Still waiting for precip to fill in over me in NE NJ...it's not even filling in anymore over ANY of NJ...just a few 1" per hour bands meandering around lol....anyway, goodnight guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 oh BY THE WAY ...TWC new figures for CPK projecting 3-6 ....any 1 still want 2 argue this isnt a major bust for NYC?? unbelievably Gregory of Fox still going with 7-12 & he is knowldegable 7-12" is the right forecast probably...the Park should have 5-6" right now as they reported 2.5" at 7pm, and they'll add another 4-6" at least as the deformation band sets up. I predicted 16-20" for NYC though and 14-18" for JFK...going to be hard for those numbers to verify, I think, unless this one still holds some surprises. People will get more snow than they are thinking, but not as much as originally thought. The winds haven't been truly blizzard-like either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Reading the SNE obs thread is more exciting than anything happening outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 oh BY THE WAY ...TWC new figures for CPK projecting 3-6 ....any 1 still want 2 argue this isnt a major bust for NYC?? unbelievably Gregory of Fox still going with 7-12 & he is knowldegable well im almost at 4 here just to the west on 78...7 doesnt seem to far fetched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 euro and nam both had more than 1.0 after 7pm and about 0.5 from 10pm on. It looks like we'll be able to tack that much on and could very well bring a large area to close to 10 at 7pm central park was at 2.5. Since about 8 its been snowing 1in/hr so they're probably closing in on 4 or 5 at the park KNYC reporting .09" in last two hrs at 30 degrees. It would take ratio of 20 to 1 to give inch an hr snow rates and we are much closer to 10 to 1 anyways. An extra 1" last 2 hrs at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Reading the SNE obs thread is more exciting than anything happening outside I look at that radar and just salivate. So crazy a difference in conditions in such short a distance. Looks like some subsidence in between bands up there but definitely a widespread 2 feet-locally 3 feet for those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nick is figuring that the bands that set up over night will push up the totals, which the models have agreed with. Looks to me like the band is moving west but is weakening based on radar. Far be it for me to say ... and I like Nick Gregory, but not sure if he's gonna turn out to be right on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Deform band looks to be setting up over NYC metro within the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 KNYC reporting .09" in last two hrs at 30 degrees. It would take ratio of 20 to 1 to give inch an hr snow rates and we are much closer to 10 to 1 anyways. An extra 1" last 2 hrs at most Hopefully we get better snow growth soon because what we have won't come close to cutting it, at least where I am. Radar shows that it should be probably heavy snow, I'd say it's barely moderate out there with sand flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I will say, looks like a good band is about to set up for W LI and NYC/E NJ, so hopefully here is where we start to rack up amounts. As the columnb continues to cool, ratios should go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I will say, looks like a good band is about to set up for W LI and NYC/E NJ, so hopefully here is where we start to rack up amounts. As the columnb continues to cool, ratios should go up. 3-6 is our best case scenario...i have 1" now...how pathetic (after reading the NE obs thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Snow growth and ratios are probably still not ideal but they are getting better, the flake size is picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 We still have another 4-6 hours left of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 so how are all the 15", we have all the 1.50" qpf precip to go forecasts in this area by all the experts (in this thread) going to turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 13 inches mod-heavy snow. Hard to measure though due to drifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 man i was hoping to pull a jan 2011 out if this - not in cards... Jan 26 2011 was a bust on the high side. We got a lot more than expected from the overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Taking dog out for a walk. Rippin out there now! Wow! Hahaha marlboro Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 We still have another 4-6 hours left of this storm. awesome - 6 hours ago we had 15" ahead of us, not 3-6", jump for joy this should teach people around this forum, TEMP ON SOUNDING PROFILES MAKE A DIFFERENCE, NOT IMAGES ON MODEL MAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Jan 26 2011 was a bust on the high side. We got a lot more than expected from the overrunning NO YOU DID NOT It snowed 15+ inches in 7 hours after the overrunning (late at night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Jan 26 2011 was a bust on the high side. We got a lot more than expected from the overrunning We had a foot of snow in 3 hours in some cases from the main upper low-associated precip. I had thunder sleet before that happened. I was optimistic that this could happen tonight even despite mixing, but we mixed for way too long and it looks like the phase will be too far east for most of us to really max out on this. Watching this band closely that's now developing over western Long Island-this could dump some healthy snow totals. 10" isn't out of the question if it sits around for a while. Remember, we're in this until probably around dawn. We have a ways to go here. I'd say though generally 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 BTW - the Euro is trash...fitting Most of the precip has fallen. What do you expect? Another 2 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 snow is coming down - at a min 1/4 to 1/3 hr rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Most of the precip has fallen. What do you expect? Another 2 feet? IT WAS PROJECTED TO BE ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW AS PER EURO!!! I have 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 IT WAS PROJECTED TO BE ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW AS PER EURO!!! I have 1" I'm not talking P-type, I'm talking QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I went for a jeb-walk (jog) earlier. While the storm is a bust on the low side it still is beautiful compared to this winter (except November 7) and last "winter" (except October 29). This is a real winter; not an extraordinary one but a real one nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Been terrible so far with 2.75 inches as of 1 hr ago but over 4 inches now with THIS ( 2in +/hr) see this gorgeous 40DBZ over queens http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.23695652173913043&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&lat=40.76062775&lon=-73.79615784&label=Flushing,%20NY&showstorms=99&map.x=300.5&map.y=243.5¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth=1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Upton's forecast for Westchester was in the 14-16" range. Most of us have 8-12" right now with about 3-4 hours of snow left, so that should verify. When we talked about getting 18-24" here, those were extreme totals based on a few model runs showing the low closing earlier. We got about what was expected. I went for a jeb-walk (jog) earlier. While the storm is a bust on the low side it still is beautiful compared to this winter (except November 7) and last "winter" (except October 29). This is a real winter; not an extraordinary one but a real one nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just went outside and measured, 6.75" which is 3.75" up since 9:07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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