Saturn510 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just dont like the East winds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs kinda look to me like they went east a bit and not as amped up. I know I know, still good....but towards the lower end of what everyone is thinking. My expectation are this is gonna be a slightly east event of what 12/19/09 was maybe by 30 miles...that pretty much puts NYC metro in amounts around 7-10 inches and the amounts of 12-14+ mainly Suffolk county. We'll see, sometimes these CCBs are a bit west of where they are modeled but I think that there will be some modestly annoyed folk in here tomorrow night as Islip is being plastered and LGA/JFK are doing well but not necessarily going 3 inches an hour. Thank you....someone that is able to relax for a second and avoid getting sucked into the most extreme model runs lol. However, I actually think that NYC and nearby NE NJ is in the 11-14 range....which is still east of the crazy amounts. I haven't been downplaying the event, just simply stating that I feel model guidance will shift east (especially Nam and Euro) at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have a question about the srefs, perhaps someone has an answer. Why do the qpf gridlines not match the qpf colors? Like the latest sref has nyc on the 2 inch line but the color is only that if 1-1.5 I'm reading the qpf off the stormvista maps. What is available from the NCEP is a little different and the result is it appears to have different qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have a question about the srefs, perhaps someone has an answer. Why do the qpf contours not match the qpf colors? Like the latest sref has nyc on the 2 inch line but the color is only that if 1-1.5its complicated and I'm too drunk to explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SLP might just be a tad east because it occluded earlier because of an earlier phase and then drifted east. That's why there is a tad east shift with the SLP but the run is actually wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Never let your vehicle not be full not a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm reading the qpf off the stormvista maps. What is available from the NCEP is a little different and the result is it appears to have different qpf Can you give a summary of what it looks like for NYC/LI/NJ off StormVista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm reading the qpf off the stormvista maps. What is available from the NCEP is a little different and the result is it appears to have different qpf but i mean even on the ncep map, it has a large area of 2+ off the coast of nj and just touching nyc, but on the color key even 1.5+ is orange and theres not a spot of orange on the map, just dark blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 @ElBloombito: Avoido los yellowado snow coños. Esta probablyo not lemoño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The colors in the SREF are the spread in precip between the members, not the actual precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The colors in the SREF are the spread in precip between the members, not the actual precip. So if I understand this, the contours are the average and the color is the spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 @ElBloombito: Avoido los yellowado snow coños. Esta probablyo not lemoño. Si Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM is rollingBiggest NAM run of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 agreed... Him and dosh all day downplaying everything and honestly not even providing sound meteorologic analysis. Please dont bring personal beefs into the discussion thread. Sorry Ive been skeptical, but since 12z today Ive been quite pumped for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 but i mean even on the ncep map, it has a large area of 2+ off the coast of nj and just touching nyc, but on the color key even 1.5+ is orange and theres not a spot of orange on the map, just dark blues not really sure what you're talking about. Orange is 2.0-2.5 yellow is 1.75-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM is deeper and on top of the 12z run by 12 hours Virtually the same as the 18z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So if I understand this, the contours are the average and the color is the spread? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's further west and stronger at hour 15. Northern stream is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One says east and one says west... facepalm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yes. Ok thanks a lot that clears it up greatly, always wondered about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah. It's the same as the 12Z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks more west at HR 15 than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Through 15 hours compared to 12Z at 27 its slower and amped...this run may again do something insane for someone, may not be here but there may be another 4 or 5 foot amount spit out for somebody in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this run is gonna beast just like 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I hate when there are conflicting reports and im not home to comapre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 All the supermarkets here are insane, drove by a few on the way home and parking lots are jammed. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I highly doubt there will be any big shifts at this point. The main players are on the field and developing. Some minor shifts here and there for sure, but I doubt anything major. As for the NAM at 18z, it was the most crazy amplified of all the solutions, so I wouldn't be surprised to see an east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Dats good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam out to hr 18. Everything the same so far. Touch warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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