Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro digging energy a lot more also. Hr 66 preciep breaking out over hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 72 east of Norfolk..prob not going to close off in time. Should be a nice run for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It looks like a norlun trough sets up at hour 78 over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 78 light snow for area. Looks stronger at this time compared to gfs, but it's further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Good sign, 12z NOAGPS is offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 84 norlun through NYC. Not a bad run at all. Should be snow falling sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 euro looks good at 500mb but its relatively dry for NYC metro. Still drops around .10-.15 with closer to 0.2+ over central and eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 12z Euro is closer to the coast on this run but not close enough. Light snow event on this run for NYC. Boston and Eastern SNE get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like surface temps on euro do not get above 32 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 84 norlun through NYC. Not a bad run at all. Should be snow falling sunday What does the Euro show for points west of the city, near KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .10+ on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What does the Euro show for points west of the city, near KMMU? .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like surface temps on euro do not get above 32 for nyc Below freezing throughout the event for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 12z Euro is closer to the coast on this run but not close enough. Light snow event on this run for NYC. Boston and Eastern SNE get more snow. I think this trough will sharpen even more and we will get a decent hit of snow from NJ on North!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Its hard to tell but around 72 it euro looked similar to Ukie at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 12z NAM at KMMU 130203/0700Z 67 16005KT 25.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130203/0800Z 68 14005KT 25.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130203/0900Z 69 13005KT 25.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130203/1000Z 70 13006KT 26.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130203/1100Z 71 13006KT 26.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130203/1200Z 72 13006KT 27.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130203/1300Z 73 14006KT 28.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0130203/1400Z 74 14007KT 29.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0130203/1500Z 75 14008KT 30.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0130203/1600Z 76 14008KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0130203/1700Z 77 15008KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0130203/1800Z 78 15007KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 12:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130203/1900Z 79 15007KT 32.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 90| 0| 10130203/2000Z 80 15007KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 87| 0| 13130203/2100Z 81 16006KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 88| 0| 12130203/2200Z 82 17004KT 32.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0130203/2300Z 83 19004KT 31.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 11:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0130204/0000Z 84 19004KT 31.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 11:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 KLGA 130203/0900Z 69 15005KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130203/1000Z 70 14005KT 28.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130203/1100Z 71 13005KT 29.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130203/1200Z 72 14005KT 29.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130203/1300Z 73 14006KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0130203/1400Z 74 15007KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0130203/1500Z 75 15008KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 88| 0| 12130203/1600Z 76 15008KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 76| 0| 24130203/1700Z 77 15008KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 70| 0| 30130203/1800Z 78 15008KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 71| 0| 29----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130203/1900Z 79 15007KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 68| 0| 32130203/2000Z 80 16006KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 72| 0| 28130203/2100Z 81 16005KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 64| 0| 36130203/2200Z 82 16004KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 66| 0| 34130203/2300Z 83 19004KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 79| 0| 21130204/0000Z 84 22003KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 62| 0| 38 vs 12z GFS KMMU 130205/0900Z 117 22004KT 22.2F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130205/1200Z 120 VRB01KT 22.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130205/1500Z 123 04003KT 25.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0130205/1800Z 126 07003KT 28.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0130205/2100Z 129 VRB02KT 30.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0130206/0000Z 132 VRB02KT 27.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 0| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130206/0300Z 135 07003KT 26.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 0| 0| 0130206/0600Z 138 06003KT 27.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0130206/0900Z 141 04004KT 26.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 0| 0| 0130206/1200Z 144 04005KT 26.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130206/1500Z 147 04007KT 28.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 KLGA 130205/1200Z 120 VRB02KT 24.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130205/1500Z 123 03004KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0130205/1800Z 126 05005KT 29.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0130205/2100Z 129 04004KT 30.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0130206/0000Z 132 03005KT 29.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130206/0300Z 135 05005KT 29.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0| 0130206/0600Z 138 04006KT 29.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0130206/0900Z 141 04009KT 28.3F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on 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Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The norlun is in a real favorable spot for us on this run. These bands usually are hard to forecast, but lead to great surprises. Still plenty of time to trend, def a interesting set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The norlun is in a real favorable spot for us on this run. These bands usually are hard to forecast, but lead to great surprises. Still plenty of time to trend, def a interesting set-up The vort dug more on this run and the low was closer to the coast. Will not take much to bump up the precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The vort dug more on this run and the low was closer to the coast. Will not take much to bump up the precip totals. Yet the surface reflection has the low a lot further east then gfs. Still plenty of time for it to trend. It was a nice run compared to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 12z euro says we do it again on Tuesday night. 1-3/2-4 type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Vista maps are deceiving. Soundings are wetter for NYC.: Total precip: NYC: .19" (surface below 32 most of the storm. Hits 33 near the end) JFK: .22" (surface below 32 most of the storm. Hits 34 near the end) ISP: .17" (surface 33-35 degrees the whole storm) FOK: .17" (surface 33-36 degrees the whole storm) BDR: .10" (surface below 32 the whole storm) BOS: .14" (surface hits 33 at it's warmest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Vista maps were deceiving. Soundings are wetter for NYC.: Total precip: NYC: .19" (below 32 most of the storm. Hits 33 near the end) JFK: .22" (below 32 most of the storm. Hits 34 near the end) ISP: .17" (surface 33-35 degrees the whole storm) FOK: .17" (surface 33-36 degrees the whole storm) BDR: .10" (surface below 32 the whole storm) BOS: .14" (Surface hits 33 at it's warmest) KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I think this trough will sharpen even more and we will get a decent hit of snow from NJ on North!!! Rossi and what makes you think this ? What does AK think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 At least we're trending more favorably as we get closer for both clippers instead of the opposite way as we've seen time and time again this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Vista maps are deceiving. Soundings are wetter for NYC.: Total precip: NYC: .19" (below 32 most of the storm. Hits 33 near the end) JFK: .22" (below 32 most of the storm. Hits 34 near the end) ISP: .17" (surface 33-35 degrees the whole storm) FOK: .17" (surface 33-36 degrees the whole storm) BDR: .10" (surface below 32 the whole storm) BOS: .14" (Surface hits 33 at it's warmest) WU maps show inverted trough with heavier banding over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 and what makes you think this ? What does AK think ? It was closer to the coast on this run. An inverted trough is over NYC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 and what makes you think this ? What does AK think ? Alan, Is non commital at this point as always; until he is sure. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 WU maps show inverted trough with heavier banding over NYC How far south does that band extend and how much precip doe sit show for the Freehold area. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Vista maps are deceiving. Soundings are wetter for NYC.: Total precip: NYC: .19" (surface below 32 most of the storm. Hits 33 near the end) JFK: .22" (surface below 32 most of the storm. Hits 34 near the end) ISP: .17" (surface 33-35 degrees the whole storm) FOK: .17" (surface 33-36 degrees the whole storm) BDR: .10" (surface below 32 the whole storm) BOS: .14" (surface hits 33 at it's warmest) If the trend of the 12Z runs to get that coastal going quicker and that deep are accurate we won't have to worry about temps anyway, only on the NAM's solution and sure enough again look where the NAM/NOGAPS are in this situation, exactly where you'd expect them west and east, I was pounding the drum prior to 1/25 that something smelled funny at 90 hours when those models were not in the right places respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If the trend of the 12Z runs to get that coastal going quicker and that deep are accurate we won't have to worry about temps anyway, only on the NAM's solution and sure enough again look where the NAM/NOGAPS are in this situation, exactly where you'd expect them west and east, I was pounding the drum prior to 1/25 that something smelled funny at 90 hours when those models were not in the right places respectively. Indeed you were. Nailed that --- so let's see if you go 2 for 2 on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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