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February 2013 Forecast Contest, Temperatures

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Posting this at 1320h EST as a time check, so that I can get an accurate read on penalty points. My attempt to change my forum clock to eastern time seems to have hit some unknown problems (same with the coding for my posts today). Just a reminder that penalties are 1% of the base score before error deductions, per hour of the forecast month, with a five minute grace period and the operative time zone for all that is EST or EDT when applicable. So now I will find out what time my forum timepiece thinks it to be. (should say 1:23 p.m.).

(after an hour anyway) :)

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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February contest entries

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ___@___ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _______ pen

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

DEREK_Z .............................. +4.4 .... +3.9 .... +3.8 .... .... .... .... ... ... +4.6 .... +3.6 .... +1.1

 

CTBLIZZ ................................ +4.1 .... +3.5 .... +2.5 .... .... .... ....  .... +1.9 .... +4.9 .... +4.6 ... ... ... ..... 7

 

ROGER SMITH ............... +3.8 ... +3.6 ... +3.3 ... ... ... ... ... +4.4 ... +4.7 ... +5.0

 

POTTERCOUNTYWX ...... +3.5 ... +3.1 ... +3.3 ... ... ... ... ... +2.7 ... +4.4 ... +3.5 ... ... ... ... 11

 

BLAZESS556 .................. +3.4 ... +2.9 ... +2.6 ... ... ... ... ... +3.2 ... +3.0 ... +2.7

 

UNCLE W ...................... +3.3 ... +2.5 ... +3.0 ... ... ... ... ... +2.7 ... +2.1 ... +2.2

 

HTOTOWN_WX ............ +3.2 ... +2.8 ... +2.2 ... .. ... ... .... +4.4 ... +3.4 ... +2.5

 

ELLINWOOD ................. +3.1 ... +2.6 ... +2.3 ... ... ... ... ... +3.4 ... +3.3 ... +3.3 

 

INUDAW ........................ +3.1 ... +2.4 ... +2.8 ... ... ... ... ... +1.8 ... +4.2 ... +1.8

 

CHICAGO_STORM ......... +3.0 ... +1.7 ... +1.0 ... ... ... ... ... +2.0 ... +4.0 ... +2.5

 

MIDLO_SNOW_MAKER .. +2.8 ... +2.1 ... +2.2 ... ... ... ... ... +1.0 ... +1.9 ... +1.0

 

SKISHEEP ...................... +2.8 ... +2.2 ... +0.7 ... ... ... ... ...  --0.2 ... +1.0 ... +1.8 ... ... ... ... 11

 

FRIVOLOUS.Z.21 ........... +2.5 ... +2.1 ... +1.3 ... ... ... ... ... +1.3 ... +3.7 ... +1.8 ... ... ... ..... 6
 

TOM .............................. +2.4 ... +2.3 ... +1.9 ... ... ... ... ... +1.1 ... +2.1 ... +1.9

 

CHICAGO_WX ............... +2.4 ... +2.2 ... +2.0 ... ... ... ... ...  +3.0 ... +2.5 ... +1.8

 

GOOBAGOOBA ............... +2.3 ... +2.0 ... + 2.5 ... ... ... ... ... +0.0 ... +3.2 ... +2.9  

 

MALLOW ..........................+2.3 ... +2.0 ... +2.4 ... ... ... ... ... +2.9 ... +3.3 ... +2.0       

 

BKVIKING ...................... +2.2 ... +1.2 .... +0.8 ... ... ... ... ...  -- 1.9. ... +2.0 ... +1.8

 

 

Consensus ..................... +2.2 ... +2.0 ... +1.5 ... ... ... ... ... +1.2 ... +2.5 ... +1.8

 

 

SRAIN ............................. +2.2 ... +1.1 ... +0.4 ... ... ... ... ...  +1.2 ... +2.1 ... +1.1

 

LITCHFIELD.LIBATIONS .. +1.9 ... +2.3 ... +3.1 ... ... ... ... ... +4.7 ... +1.9 ... +0.8

 

QVECTORMAN ................ +1.8 ... +3.6 ... +3.7 ... ... ... ... ... +0.8 ... --2.2 ... --4.8

 

SKIERINVERMONT ......... +1.5 ... +1.5 ... +1.5 ... ... ... ... ...  --1.5 ... +2.5 ... --1.0

 

LONGISLANDWX ............ +1.5 ... +1.0 ... +0.3 ... ... ... ... ... -- 0.2 ... +3.0 ... +2.5

 

CPICK.79 ........................ +1.5 ... +1.3 ... +0.8 ... ... ... ... ...  --0.5 ... +1.5 ... --2.0

 

ISOTHERM ...................... +1.4 ... +1.2 ... +1.5 ... ... ... ... ... +2.6 ... +2.4 ... +2.1

 

STEBO ............................ +1.3 ... +1.1 ...  +0.8 ... ... ... ... ...  --1.1 ...  +1.1 ... +0.6

 

WEATHERDUDE ............... +1.3 ... +1.3 ... +1.1 ... ... ... ... ... -2.0 ... +1.0 ... +2.8 ... ... ... ... 50

 

SD ................................. +1.2 ... +1.0 ... +0.9 ... ... ... ... ...  -- 1.4 ... +1.2 ... +0.7

 

MN_TRANSPLANT .......... +1.1 ... +0.5 ... +0.5 ... ... ... ... ... +3.0 ... +1.5 ... +1.0

 

RODNEYS ....................... +0.9 ...+1.5 ...+1.0 ... ... ... ... ... +2.1 ... +2.9 ... +1.4 

 

SACRUS .......................... +0.8 ... +1.1 ... +0.5 ... ... ... ... ... +0.6 ... +1.5 ... +1.1

 

BRAD1551........................ +0.6 ... --1.0 ... --1.1 ... ... ... ... ... +0.9 ... +1.0 ... +0.9

 

WXDUDE64 ...................... +0.4 ... +0.4 ... +0.5 ... ... ... ... ...  +0.2 ... +2.1 ... +1.3

 

HUDSONVALLEY.21 ......... +0.4 ... +0.3 ... +1.3 ... ... ... ... ... +2.1 ... +1.8 ... +1.3         

 

DONSUTHERLAND.1......... +0.3 ... --0.3 ... --0.5 ... ... ... ... ...  --0.5 ... +1.5 ... +2.0

 

 

Normal ............................... 0.0 .... 0.0 .... 0.0 ... .... ... ... ... .. 0.0 .... 0.0 .... 0.0

 

 

I.NEED.SNOW ............... -- 0.3 ... -- 0.9 ...  -- 1.6 ... ... ... ... ... -- 0.8 ... +0.3 ... +1.2

 

NZUCKER .....................  --1.0 ... --2.6 ...  --2.8 ... ... ... ... ...  --2.0 ... +0.4 ... +0.7 ... ... ... ... 40

 

___________________________________________________________________________

 

Please check your entries ... later entries will be edited into this table and Consensus may change as a result. As of posting time the late penalty stands at 24 pts per forecast.


 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Thanks for those entries. I am wondering if perhaps my penalty structure is a bit too draconian, maybe I should be applying that percentage to scores and not to the base. If applied to score, for example, a late score of 80 at the 50 level would get 40 points rather than 30. If I sense general agreement, I might amend the rule. If nobody comments though or if there are mostly comments in favour of the system in place, I will stick with what we have.

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Is it so dificult to spel Punksatawny korrect like I hav?

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

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Thanks for those entries. I am wondering if perhaps my penalty structure is a bit too draconian, maybe I should be applying that percentage to scores and not to the base. If applied to score, for example, a late score of 80 at the 50 level would get 40 points rather than 30. If I sense general agreement, I might amend the rule. If nobody comments though or if there are mostly comments in favour of the system in place, I will stick with what we have.

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Is it so dificult to spel Punksatawny korrect like I hav?

 

I think that would still be plenty harsh enough so that it is still very disadvantageous to post late. 

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weatherdude

weatherdude

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For my 2 cents Roger, the penalty is a bit harsh, but since its applied equally to all, at least it is fair. What I would like to see, is when you post the final score list,  an indication of what the score would have been without the penalty, or at least a flag of sorts showing that this was a late entry and was penalized.  Thanks.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Right, have not decided yet as there may be more input, but if I stick with current system, will post a small table below main table showing scores before penalties. In your case (skier) last month the table had your penalty points beside your name and you can get most of your scores by adding that to them (23 IIRC). But scores that might have been under 23 (I think you scored something small for IAH or ORD) reduce to zero so you can't find those the same way. I was just comparing penalty points here to similar contests on two other forums and at the present time we are a bit steeper although one of the comparisons includes an absolute cut-off at 00h 4th, but penalties there are less severe until you reach that cut-off (something like 10,20,30 per cent each day). I find that a bit too lenient but I think Mallow was applying his penalties as percentages of score and not absolute reductions. Anyway, will decide soon based on any further input. Thanks.

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Mallow

Mallow

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Right, have not decided yet as there may be more input, but if I stick with current system, will post a small table below main table showing scores before penalties. In your case (skier) last month the table had your penalty points beside your name and you can get most of your scores by adding that to them (23 IIRC). But scores that might have been under 23 (I think you scored something small for IAH or ORD) reduce to zero so you can't find those the same way. I was just comparing penalty points here to similar contests on two other forums and at the present time we are a bit steeper although one of the comparisons includes an absolute cut-off at 00h 4th, but penalties there are less severe until you reach that cut-off (something like 10,20,30 per cent each day). I find that a bit too lenient but I think Mallow was applying his penalties as percentages of score and not absolute reductions. Anyway, will decide soon based on any further input. Thanks.

 

Indeed I was.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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CLARIFICATION on LATE PENALTIES

__________________________________

 

I think it will be fair to apply late penalties in the same way as last year, so I will amend the January score for Skierinvermont (check the January table to see that amendment after 7 p.m. EST) and so now it will be applied to total score after calculating the scores the same as for an on-time entry. The change will mean a few more points for late entrants basically. It will not change the "don't bother to enter" cutoff at 100h into the month and I will continue to announce contest entry deadline as 00:05h of each calendar month unless there is a widespread weather emergency to require an extension.

 

Anyone still thinking of entering February please note your scores will at this point be reduced by 67%. That would be 80% by 0730h Monday and entries are wiped out by penalties after 0400h Tuesday 5th.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Many here (including me) need a mid-month reversal to score anything in the "classic" but the consensus in the "expanded" is already busting low for Houston. So after four days with notes about today's actuals ...

 

DCA ... -- 7.9 (likely to edge up to -6 after today)

 

NYC ... --7.0 (same as above)

 

BOS ... --3.9 (a bit colder after today?)

 

ORD .. --10.0 (probably closer to -8 by tomorrow)

 

ATL ... -- 3.4 (most of that to be gone by tomorrow)

 

IAH ... +6.0 (near 80 F now so make that +9 to +10 by tomorrow?)

 

If anyone's thinking of a late entry, sorry it is now too late as the penalty would be 100% -- you're welcome in March of course.

 

 

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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After 23 days, and an estimate of final figures in brackets:

 

DCA ... --1.4 (0.0)

 

NYC ... --2.4 (--1.2)

 

BOS ... --1.2 (--0.2)

 

ORD ... --1.9 (--1.5)

 

ATL ... -- 0.3 (+1.3)

 

IAH ... +3.2 (+3.2)

 

A warming trend for the east looks like it might give the field a bit of a boost but will miss ORD wide right (keeping things about where they are now, perhaps a touch higher) ...  and meanwhile Houston is already warm so a couple of warmer days (today, tomorrow) balanced by some colder days and a return to seasonable should also leave thiings about where they are now.

 

March forecast thread is open for entries and is pinned (thanks).

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