AvantHiatus Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 What are you referring to, exactly? I have no idea, seems like you are more on the warming train now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Its post Pretty worrisome that the arctic is expected to warm another 7-9C but 2100. Everyone blows off the methane thing. But in a world where snow cover is gone by May 1st except mtns. And the Kara, Laptev, ESS and Chuchki are ice free by mid to late June. That's worrisome. I'd love to see a model run scenarios where those seas are ice free by June 20th. And then a large ridge sets up over the ESS/Chuchki/Laptev. The shelf is 50M or shallower. Most of it is closer to 25M. With that red area mostly 8-15M. Its easy to forget how shallow these regions are. Today we have seen ssts reach 10-12C in the Laptev. I'd guess in the future I described we could see SSTs reach 15-20C for a couple months. But more importantly the water along the sea floor will be way to warm Plus all the extra direct solar heating. Sounds pretty freaking risky to me. By 2080-2100 Co2 will be 550PPM+. Methane easily double today's. Looks like a hell of a gamble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Latest Euro weakens the "death ridge" considerably. And actually turns quite favorable for the Beaufort days 6-10. No posts about it...shocking. When everyone isn't speaking the ***holes can't help themselves. This person could have just written some analysis. And like magic there would be a post about it. At this point I would like to see that kind of antagonizing banned from the discussion. If people under no circumstances are allowed to trash bait or antagonize other members. This includes weatherguys ramblings. The quality of discussion would increase a lot. Natural variation has mellowed folks out a lot. Which is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Apologies. The ECS discussion is agitating like nothing else usually. I just think the timeframe is too small to gather an accurate picture of ECS from observations. If we put all our eggs into the low ECS basket, we're fooked if we are wrong and all our policy making decisions go out the window. We should prepare for the worst, and expect the impossible. With modern advances like the EmDrive, it should be possible to follow the precautionary principle without breaking the bank. Natural variability has not mellowed me out. I will not be disarrayed by short term trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yes, there are numerous studies with low TCR's, but I also have (estimating) at least 25+ papers concluding ECS values of 1.5C or lower. Again, not saying that's necessarily what I believe, but there definitely seems to be enough disagreement for the door to be left open < 1.5C. There are an even greater amount of recent studies concluding 1.5C-2.0C ECS. Maybe I will create a new thread pertaining to this topic. This is probably only if you include 'papers' published in journals that don't actually have real peer-review. I actually don't know of any peer-reviewed studies that put ECS under 1.5C. There are a few that have the lower bound at 1.5C or just below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The final report summarizing the recent Ringberg ECS workshop has been posted. The report is not earthshaking. The main recommendation is to focus research on the science needed to justify ECS below 2C and above 4C. The unstated implication is that ECS between 2 and 4C are reasonable in the absence of new science.. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/the-atmosphere-in-the-earth-system/ringberg-workshop/ringberg-2014.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Too emotionally invested to be objective....that's my thinking...i.e. symptom of their confirmation bias thirst... Here comes the king. This paper comes from the same crowd that thinks everything is natural variability. They aren't fooling me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/alaska-sets-new-record-earliest-day-temperatures-90s Alaska sets new record for earliest day with temperatures in the 90s It’s been a warm, dry spring for much of interior Alaska. On the afternoon of May 23, a new statewide record was set for the earliest day in the year with a temperature in the 90s. A daytime high of 91°F was noted by a cooperative observer in Eagle, where temperatures have been recorded (with some breaks) since the 1890s. Some regions of Alaska were warmer than Washington DC on May 23rd. Challenging to warp the mind around that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/alaska-sets-new-record-earliest-day-temperatures-90s Alaska sets new record for earliest day with temperatures in the 90s Some regions of Alaska were warmer than Washington DC on May 23rd. Challenging to warp the mind around that one. You are confusing weather with climate. It was also incredibly cold in the northeast U.S this past winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 You are confusing weather with climate. It was also incredibly cold in the northeast U.S this past winter.... That is a shade above and beyond the normal range, agreed? We can sit here all day but the climate system is built upon equilibrium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Here comes the king. This paper comes from the same crowd that thinks everything is natural variability. They aren't fooling me. I agree with KING here. There is so much bias now both sides of the climate fight that the science is being distorted both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 I agree with KING here. There is so much bias now both sides of the climate fight that the science is being distorted both sides. How can we ever be sure of anything on such an important issue? Or if you don't think it is important, are you willing to risk being wrong? Precautionary principle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 This is probably only if you include 'papers' published in journals that don't actually have real peer-review. I actually don't know of any peer-reviewed studies that put ECS under 1.5C. There are a few that have the lower bound at 1.5C or just below. They are all peer-reviewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 They are all peer-reviewed. Could you please provide links to the most recent half dozen or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Rather than wait (possibly forever) for Isotherm to share links to the papers he claims support lower ECS values, I've been reading some of what Google Scholar shows as recent papers on the topic. One I found interesting, and which many of you may already have seen, is Millar et al 2015 which, if I'm understanding it fully, gives a 'best estimate' for TCR of around 1.5 C, and a range for ECS of 2.0 to around 4.5 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Mountains out of mole hills. TGW come'on man.... xD. We will have a favorable pattern again this summer (like every normal summer) for ice retention, anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. but it will be counter-balanced by the early head-start. It will all make sense when NSIDC and JAXA begin tanking in earnest. I know why you would be hesitant to call it for what it is, coming off a year like 2014. The Kara low blow-up on the Euro is not a model bias. It's legit and makes sense, storms love the contrast and feed off the horizontal temperature gradients between the arctic basin and boreal regions. If you knew what I knew, you would be taking the Arctic seriously and not just as a hobby. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 That is a shade above and beyond the normal range, agreed? We can sit here all day but the climate system is built upon equilibrium. February was the 2nd coldest ever in some locations in the NE & coldest ever in others. Get his point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Mountains out of mole hills. TGW come'on man.... xD. We will have a favorable pattern again this summer (like every normal summer) for ice retention, anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. but it will be counter-balanced by the early head-start. It will all make sense when NSIDC and JAXA begin tanking in earnest. I know why you would be hesitant to call it for what it is, coming off a year like 2014. The Kara low blow-up on the Euro is not a model bias. It's legit and makes sense, storms love the contrast and feed off the horizontal temperature gradients between the arctic basin and boreal regions. If you knew what I knew, you would be taking the Arctic seriously and not just as a hobby. Just sayin'. Arrogant much!! The warm temps were caused by super typhoon recurve which pumps up a super ridge. What do you expect? The brutal Alaskan winter of 2012...was it a sign of the next ice age? Should we have sounded the alarm? Again, a regional weather phenomenon of extreme proportions can happen but it doesn't necessarily mean anything other than it was darn hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Arrogant much!! The warm temps were caused by super typhoon recurve which pumps up a super ridge. What do you expect? The brutal Alaskan winter of 2012...was it a sign of the next ice age? Should we have sounded the alarm? Again, a regional weather phenomenon of extreme proportions can happen but it doesn't necessarily mean anything other than it was darn hot. The warm blob has been there for 2.5 years. New one forming off the East Coast too. I've seen some stuff in my days but this takes the cake. It makes 2012 look like weak sauce, and it was a fooking sauna here literally. Equilibrium response means the system will deliver very warm and very cold departures somewhere on the Earth. 'Nough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Lol...just keep yours posts in here weatherguy and don't clog up the main threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 No chance of that. Damn straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Mountains out of mole hills. TGW come'on man.... xD. We will have a favorable pattern again this summer (like every normal summer) for ice retention, anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. but it will be counter-balanced by the early head-start. It will all make sense when NSIDC and JAXA begin tanking in earnest. I know why you would be hesitant to call it for what it is, coming off a year like 2014. The Kara low blow-up on the Euro is not a model bias. It's legit and makes sense, storms love the contrast and feed off the horizontal temperature gradients between the arctic basin and boreal regions. If you knew what I knew, you would be taking the Arctic seriously and not just as a hobby. Just sayin'. I've followed arctic weather from May to September daily since 2011.The models have a bias to warm the warm sector of these non cold core vortexes in the medium to long range. Its an incredibly consistent happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Lol...just keep yours posts in here weatherguy and don't clog up the main threads. Can we make that permanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Can we make that permanent. Don't be like that. I'll post quality stuff when you guys talk about real topics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Don't be like that. I'll post quality stuff when you guys talk about real topics. Well if you're actually able to post quality stuff why wouldn't you do it all the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Don't be like that. I'll post quality stuff when you guys talk about real topics. You've never posted "quality stuff" a day in your life..why start now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 You've never posted "quality stuff" a day in your life..why start now? Depends on what your looking for? Entertainment or Lewis Black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 opinions are meaningless in science Good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now