stadiumwave Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Wow...Greenland melt us off to a slow start. I really think Greenland is heavily tied to sst's in the N Atlantic. A long-term -AMO would really put the breaks on the melt seasons there. EDIT: to clarify...I mean a slow down compared to the last decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Wow...Greenland melt us off to a slow start. I really think Greenland is heavily tied to sst's in the N Atlantic. A long-term -AMO would really put the breaks on the melt seasons there. EDIT: to clarify...I mean a slow down compared to the last decade It's the only reason why the rest of the Arctic is not below average and was connected w/early Beaufort torch. The AMOC is failing so it's not a true -AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 It's the only reason why the rest of the Arctic is not below average and was connected w/early Beaufort torch. The AMOC is failing so it's not a true -AMO. #1 It's not a -AMO anyway....yet #2 AMOC failing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 #1 It's not a -AMO anyway....yet #2 AMOC failing??? 1.) I believe it is, but the -AMO has been unable to lock in during a 6-month window for whatever reason. 2015 0.012 0.016 -0.109 (March 2015) -0.051 2.) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is on the decline. Read more (new study): http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n5/full/nclimate2554.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 One could probably argue we are possibly looking at the beginning stages of -AMO regime but we are far from a full out -AMO the numbers speak for them selves. 2014 -0.042 -0.023 -0.061 -0.074 0.019 0.082 0.242 0.355 0.330 0.312 0.085 0.079 1975 -0.260 -0.325 -0.296 -0.332 -0.375 -0.282 -0.258 -0.172 -0.323 -0.340 -0.328 -0.308 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Even if the ice does not melt out to record years, this year will have some nasty permafrost damage. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015060606&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=330.9090837368297 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 One could probably argue we are possibly looking at the beginning stages of -AMO regime but we are far from a full out -AMO the numbers speak for them selves. 2014 -0.042 -0.023 -0.061 -0.074 0.019 0.082 0.242 0.355 0.330 0.312 0.085 0.079 1975 -0.260 -0.325 -0.296 -0.332 -0.375 -0.282 -0.258 -0.172 -0.323 -0.340 -0.328 -0.308 Correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 1.) I believe it is, but the -AMO has been unable to lock in during a 6-month window for whatever reason. 2015 0.012 0.016 -0.109 (March 2015) -0.051 2.) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is on the decline. Read more (new study): http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n5/full/nclimate2554.html Saying the AOMC is failing is WAY to premature. A -AMO not "locking in" now doesnt indicate aN AMOC failure. AMO is gradual not a sudden flip of the coin...although the SST's in the N. Atlantic have cooled over the last 3 years rather quickly. But the behavior so far is very consistent to the way changes have taken place over the last 50 years of the AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 I was not around in the 1950s with high resolution SST maps, never assume anything. The defining feature that sets apart this -AMO from all the rest is the very warm West Atlantic and Gulf Stream 'heat streak'. Which either means this is a blip in the long-term +AMO or the AMOC has partially failed, leading to a 'traffic jam' of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 I was not around in the 1950s with high resolution SST maps, never assume anything. The defining feature that sets apart this -AMO from all the rest is the very warm West Atlantic and Gulf Stream 'heat streak'. Which either means this is a blip in the long-term +AMO or the AMOC has partially failed, leading to a 'traffic jam' of heat. I would go with the latter. Really haven't been expecting a deepening -AMO for anotherror 5-10 years. The AMO is not negative right now anyway...it's hovering around neutral. I expect this is a blip, just like the current +PDO is a blip in its long-term negative cycle similar to what happened in the 1950's....except this was a record +PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 We are not in a -AMO....we are in a declining AMO. There's a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 We are not in a -AMO....we are in a declining AMO. There's a difference. I think there will be a secondary +AMO peak in the 2018-2023 timeframe if greenland melt doesn't go beserke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 I was not around in the 1950s with high resolution SST maps, never assume anything. The defining feature that sets apart this -AMO from all the rest is the very warm West Atlantic and Gulf Stream 'heat streak'. Which either means this is a blip in the long-term +AMO or the AMOC has partially failed, leading to a 'traffic jam' of heat. Wasn't there a huge ridge there ? Those are huge anomalies tho. Insane really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 The denier blogs are freaking out over the Nino and huge warmth. The May global sst update will be out soon. Can't wait to see where it ended up. Currently the Indian ocean and Npac are on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 The denier blogs are freaking out over the Nino and huge warmth. The May global sst update will be out soon. Can't wait to see where it ended up. Currently the Indian ocean and Npac are on fire. The same can be said for people hoping the Earth goes up in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Wasn't there a huge ridge there ? Those are huge anomalies tho. Insane really. No man, yeah mabye the far eastern section of that but the area near the east coast is permanently above normal regardless of the pattern since 2013 and semi-permanent since 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 The same can be said for people hoping the Earth goes up in flames. Yep...blogosphere climate change talk is pretty much as bipolar as it gets. Like I said to Bluewave in the other thread....imagine if that new study that shows no hiatus had a press release that said "New study shows the earth has warmed 0.15C less than previous thought" rather than a headline about no hiatus. The alarmists would have freaked out. But both headlines are accurate in describing the study. It's all about spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 I wonder when the next adjustment is due. They can milk the ocean quite a bit I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 The same can be said for people hoping the Earth goes up in flames. Who wants that. People want science and theory validated. If humanity keeps ascending then we will be 100% on clean reliable energy anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Unreadable. Some of these posts need to go to the banter thread. 400,000 hiroshimas every day, enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Awesome Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 lets see how the deniers spin it. all that ice melt (and increased ocean heat) has to unload somewhere.. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_WETTEST_MAY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-06-08-12-21-53 Feeling soggy? Last month was the wettest on record for the contiguous United States, according to federal meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 lets see how the deniers spin it. all that ice melt (and increased ocean heat) has to unload somewhere.. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_WETTEST_MAY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-06-08-12-21-53 You just linked us to an article that said "there's no way to connect climate change to a single soggy month" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 the statistical part takes more importance over the opinionated aspect. Coming from the feds, it's obviously going to be dampened a bit to prevent hysteria. nothing new there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 You just linked us to an article that said "there's no way to connect climate change to a single soggy month" Perhaps 4.33" of precip on avg would have fallen in a cooler climate instead of 4.36"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Perhaps 4.33" of precip on avg would have fallen in a cooler climate instead of 4.36"? This is simply what occurs when El Nino coincides with AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 This is simply what occurs when El Nino coincides with AGW. What happens when there is an El Nino and no AGW?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 What happens when there is an El Nino and no AGW?? We have at least some documentation of a super Nino before AGW: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/winter_1877_1878.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 This is simply what occurs when El Nino coincides with AGW. This is simply what occurs in a classic Niño split flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 We have at least some documentation of a super Nino before AGW: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/winter_1877_1878.htm Good thing there wasn't AGW then!! They would have been harvesting another set of corn in January!! lolz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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