Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Folks here talk like Africa is the only source. Have fun with that! I still think looking to Africa for interesting events this year is a big waste of time. But except for a possible BoC miracle in 5 to 7 days, there is no sign of anything developing soon. Longer range ensembles beyond day 10 show lower pressure and enhanced rain in the BoC, but it seems more like bleed over from an active East Pac than anything else. There are a couple of systems down there at the very end, but almost two weeks away? And no real signs of subtropical development at low enough latitude to help anyone. Below, longer range ensembles trying to see a silver lining in the BoC, and FIM9 tries for the BoC/Gulf miracle, but comes up just a little short... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 African waves lolz. Booooooorrrrrrring.African recurves FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 00Z Euro ensembles up to a 70-80% chance for genesis with regards to the easterly wave pushing off West Africa in the next 2 days. Maximum intensity looks to hold at a tropical storm. Still a 40-50% with regards to the wave over the central-western MDR over the western MDR or eastern Caribbean between day 2-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 00Z Euro ensembles up to a 70-80% chance for genesis with regards to the easterly wave pushing off West Africa in the next 2 days. Maximum intensity looks to hold at a tropical storm. Still a 40-50% with regards to the wave over the central-western MDR over the western MDR or eastern Caribbean between day 2-5. Do you have any research on MJO 1 activity following an especially weak interval during the summer? It looks like 7-15 to 8-15 was one of the weakest signals that we have seen during a 30 day period during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Do you have any research on MJO 1 activity following an especially weak interval during the summer? It looks like 7-15 to 8-15 was one of the weakest signals that we have seen during a 30 day period during the summer. I do not You could take a look through the time-longitude hovmoellers I have: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/ncep/5S-5N/ or http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/hovs/ see if you can eyeball any nice analogs: I still think 2006 is a nice example but that makes people grumble in here =\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Good news/bad news on my Day 5-7 Boc/Gulf miracle, 6Z GFS a bit farther North, whatever is there will affect sensible weather possibly as far North as the Rio Grande. Bad news, it looks even weaker and less likely to develop than on earlier runs. But it is the closest in time/nearest to land even vaguely potential feature of interest. Thus, in its own way, it is as interesting as Cape Verde invests likely to fish then die, or die then fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I do not You could take a look through the time-longitude hovmoellers I have: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/ncep/5S-5N/ or http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/hovs/ see if you can eyeball any nice analogs: I still think 2006 is a nice example but that makes people grumble in here =\ Thanks. It's interesting that 2006 comes up with some aspects of the pattern looking similar to El Nino warming without an actual El Nino being in place. So something else appears to be mimicking certain qualities of an El Nino for the Atlantic while the Pacific is decidely in negative PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 29 Global Hawk Dropsondes ingested and assimilated into the 0z GFS! (Note the 26th's were rejected (pic#3), but not tonight!) Was this data available to other non-US agencies. Or, does the relative lack of enthusiasm of the 0Z global models (excluding the Canadian, of course) related to extra data ingested into the models about pseudo-invest 25L? Even the FIM has lost all signs of enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Was this data available to other non-US agencies. Or, does the relative lack of enthusiasm of the 0Z global models (excluding the Canadian, of course) related to extra data ingested into the models about pseudo-invest 25L? Even the FIM has lost all signs of enthusiasm. We didn't assimilate any drops in the 00z cycle (00z 30th is the last point on the time series, touching the border). Note the two red spikes on the last data point in the 3rd/4th figures, these are the ones that are rejected (gross check) and monitored (by default for the drops from the global hawk). Based on what I am seeing from the 30th and 26th, they are getting assigned a quality mark to be monitored by default. I'm assuming that the surveillance obs/drops that ere assimilated on the 28th were not from a global hawk mission given the counts (the spike in the first graph on the 3rd last data point). Given that the observations are showing up in the operational dump files, I can only assume they are available over the GTS (meaning all operational agencies will at least have access to the observations). Whether or not folks decide to assimilate them is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 So who else is ready for 2014 96L is about to emerge into a nice stable environment and probably wont last more than three days just like the ECMWF suggests. This system will probably wind up being a carbon copy of Erin. ECMWF is rather bullish with development, but does very little with it after it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Checking in here is painful these days. While most in here want some action close to home as an east coast surfer I am totally fine with fish. But struggling tropical storm fish do not produce swell for the East Coast of any significance. So really, this season thus far is good for no one!! (in here of course in reality it’s great for the general population) What is really causing this nightmare season? Is it the dry air? The shear? Both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 We didn't assimilate any drops in the 00z cycle (00z 30th is the last point on the time series, touching the border). Note the two red spikes on the last data point in the 3rd/4th figures, these are the ones that are rejected (gross check) and monitored (by default for the drops from the global hawk). Based on what I am seeing from the 30th and 26th, they are getting assigned a quality mark to be monitored by default. Well, darn... when I checked the image last night I guess it hadn't updated for the 30/0z run yet and got excited prematurely. Thanks for the catch dtk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Checking in here is painful these days. While most in here want some action close to home as an east coast surfer I am totally fine with fish. But struggling tropical storm fish do not produce swell for the East Coast of any significance. So really, this season thus far is good for no one!! (in here of course in reality it’s great for the general population) What is really causing this nightmare season? Is it the dry air? The shear? Both? Second lowest August ACE in the Atlantic since 1966. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2505 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Second lowest August ACE in the Atlantic since 1966. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2505 down everywhere. Here is current ACE compared to YTD normals: region normal ACE current ACE global 416 244 NH 244 120 SH 209 192 NATL 30 8 EPAC 76 40 WPAC 129 60 Edit to add that the numbers don't necessarily add up due to differences in regional season start/stop dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 The 12z GFS keeps 96L as a depression or wave and doesn't develop anything else of interest through 192 hours. It's pretty sad to think that the last time we even saw an eye in the Atlantic was during Sandy last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 If 96L doesn't get named, GFS suggests we'll go right to the peak day of the Atlantic season before the next named storm. Just recalling late July talk that mid-August would be the switch, and now the end of August, and at best a weak and fishing TC, what is the lowest seasonal ACE post 1995, and what is the lowest seasonal ACE of the satellite era? If the season is going to be record boring, might as well set a record doing it. Edit to Add My natural optimism is being tested. Usually, I hope Summer never ends, but now I am welcoming the return of the mid-latitude Westerlies around September 10th, because there are no storms to come anyway, and the once a week cold fronts will be more exciting that this. Plus with a possibly active East Pac as shown on models, and a sub-tropical connection from said East Pac, another October 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa scenario, with the San Jacinto river catching fire, if that comes early this year. Ok, negativity over, Canadian developing the Central Pac wave no reliable guidance likes into a hurricane that may be about to get trapped under the ridge and turned into Charleston, SC. I hope I'm not 5 posted for attaching the unlikely and unreliable, but I suspect I don't need more than 5 posts a day the next 2 weeks. And some day, the Canadian will be almost correct on a 7.5 day forecast. And the board needs straws to grasp at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 If the season is going to be record boring, might as well set a record doing it. I actually agree. At this point, I'm just rooting for extreme lameness-- just to make it interestin'. 11 Sep is the modern (i.e., satellite) era record for latest formation of the first 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I kinda like 96L chances here. It's currently superimposed with the strongest part of the negative CCKW phase.. You tend to see you best chances of a TC to spin up about 2 days after the day of superposition (if the easterly wave moves or will move over ocean). I wonder what will win, the CCKW or the unfavorable seasonal-intraseasonal state over the Atlantic not associated with the CCKW? Also if you visit Alan Brammer's p(prog)/dt of the GFS op, you can see by looking at MSLP that at the 00 hour forecast, the current minimum pressure of 96L is being observed much further south near Senegal than what the GFS has been representing it once in forecast mode (placing it way up over northwest Africa). I guess to be seen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I actually agree. At this point, I'm just rooting for extreme lameness-- just to make it interestin'. 11 Sep is the modern (i.e., satellite) era record for latest formation of the first 'cane. It's gonna be close Josh. Who would have thought on June 1st we'd be sitting at 5-0-0 at the end of August with a warm MDR and La Nina-ish tendencies.. All hail the SAL and TUTT's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I kinda like 96L chances here. It's currently superimposed with the strongest part of the negative CCKW phase.. You tend to see you best chances of a TC to spin up about 2 days after the day of superposition (if the easterly wave moves or will move over ocean). I wonder what will win, the CCKW or the unfavorable seasonal-intraseasonal state over the Atlantic not associated with the CCKW? Also if you visit Alan Brammer's p(prog)/dt of the GFS op, you can see by looking at MSLP that at the 00 hour forecast, the current minimum pressure of 96L is being observed much further south near Senegal than what the GFS has been representing it once in forecast mode (placing it way up over northwest Africa). I guess to be seen.. Do you believe then that the guidance is showing too much recurve into the stable air too quickly?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 Since it's gonna recurve anyway, I hope it doesn't form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 NOAA49 (Gonzo/ G-IV) just landed in St. Croix for a high altitude radar mission for P25L. It should help supplement the dataset that the Global Hawk collected yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Folks, We have kind of an interesting situation regarding pouch 25 in the central Atlantic. Whereas the GFS and Euro runs (through 12Z) continue to do nothing with it, the CMC for at least the 4th run in a row has it become a cat 2-3 hurricane and threaten the US east coast. As a matter of fact, today's 12Z CMC actually slams Wilmington with a 968 mb hurricane at hour 216. See the attached map. Actually, it forms a TD by Monday morning 9/2 (72 hours) near the Leewards. Normally, I wouldn't give the CMC the time of day when the GFS and Euro are far different due to its inferiority and tendency to show false TC's. Therefore, I rarely post CMC maps and I'm not one to hype the tropics without a sound meteorological reason. Furthermore, I'm still not betting on it scoring a coup as of now. However, and this is a big however, the MJO is now getting close to an amplitude of 2.00 in phase 1 and rising further. If the Euro and GFS ensemble mean MJO forecasts were to verify, it would peak near 2.30 in phase 1 ~9/1-2, which is consistent with what the Euro has been showing for days. A 2.30 amplitude MJO in phase 1 would be the 2nd strongest MJO in either phase 1 or phase 2 near the peak of the season (8/21-9/20) since at least 1975! It would just beat the 9/5/81 peak of 2.21. Here are the two strongest as of now and the TC geneses while the MJO was 1.50+ in phase 1 or 2 just for the storms that eventually became hurricanes: -3.08 peak 8/28/79: cat 5 David, cat. 4 Frederic, cat 2 Gloria -2.21 peak 9/5/81: cat 1 Emily, cat 3 Floyd, cat 2 Gert Actually, a whopping six total TC's formed during the strong 1979 MJO! So, I'm wondering if it is possible that the Euro and GFS are not responding enough to this strong phase 1 MJO being that we're looking at about a one in 15 or so year event near the season's peak. Could it be that the CMC is responding more appropriately? Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Checking in here is painful these days. While most in here want some action close to home as an east coast surfer I am totally fine with fish. But struggling tropical storm fish do not produce swell for the East Coast of any significance. So really, this season thus far is good for no one!! (in here of course in reality it’s great for the general population) What is really causing this nightmare season? Is it the dry air? The shear? Both? That's what I personally wanna know. Shear has been above average over the E ATL and the Caribbean. There will always be dry air. Maybe subsidence downstream from an active W African Monsoon? Above average background SLPs? I honestly don't know. I think this season proves we still have a long ways to go with seasonal forecasting. Sometimes things happen without a very obvious cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I actually agree. At this point, I'm just rooting for extreme lameness-- just to make it interestin'. 11 Sep is the modern (i.e., satellite) era record for latest formation of the first 'cane. Yep. I wouldn't mind going to entire season without a hurricane at this point -- that way we can all say we lived to tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I like the subsidence idea. Whatever is going on its a multi-year situation. it’s not that we haven’t seen development the last few years it’s that we haven’t seen ideal conditions in the MDR for anything more than struggling trop storms. I think climate change may have some impact as we see shear increasing in the tropics in general. This fits in with the idea that despite warming sea surface temps increasing shear will counteract any increase in available energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I like the subsidence idea. Whatever is going on its a multi-year situation. it’s not that we haven’t seen development the last few years it’s that we haven’t seen ideal conditions in the MDR for anything more than struggling trop storms. I think climate change may have some impact as we see shear increasing in the tropics in general. This fits in with the idea that despite warming sea surface temps increasing shear will counteract any increase in available energy. I certainly don't want this to turn into a climate change debate, but you cannot on the one hand blame 2005 with all its many great storms on climate change and then blame 2013 and its lameness on climate change for completely opposite reasons. It's just weather, and over time it become part of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I certainly don't want this to turn into a climate change debate, but you cannot on the one hand blame 2005 with all its many great storms on climate change and then blame 2013 and its lameness on climate change for completely opposite reasons. It's just weather, and over time it become part of climo. I haaaaate climate change debates myself but shear is shear and in my opinion its anomalously high this season and that very well may be impacted by climate change. Let’s take 32c water temps and super moist environment. Throw a trop storm into that situation and some 3o knot shear and wam nothing. Shear is king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I haaaaate climate change debates myself but shear is shear and in my opinion its anomalously high this season and that very well may be impacted by climate change. Let’s take 32c water temps and super moist environment. Throw a trop storm into that situation and some 3o knot shear and wam nothing. Shear is king! It's pretty clear the most serious impediment to development this year is NOT shear, and shear in the MDR this month has actually been a bit below normal. We're not seeing an endless procession of promising systems getting decapitated as happens in an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 It's pretty clear the most serious impediment to development this year is NOT shear, and shear in the MDR this month has actually been a bit below normal. We're not seeing an endless procession of promising systems getting decapitated as happens in an El Nino. i meant earlier in the season to clarify sorry. This month its been SAL and lack of waves no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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