snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Maybe the final thread I ever create at americanwx. To be used once the II thread is at capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Maybe the final thread I ever create at americanwx. To be used once the II thread is at capacity. And the ECMWF continues to drive you insane... already 8 tenths of an inch and its not finished yet. DTW .56" for you SEMI whiners too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Per Will in the SNE thread, the low is about 4 mb stronger on the 0z EURO. Seems to jibe the obs some of you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 And the ECMWF continues to drive you insane... already 8 tenths of an inch and its not finished yet. DTW .56" for you SEMI whiners too Still a good run for South Central Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 And the ECMWF continues to drive you insane... already 8 tenths of an inch and its not finished yet. DTW .56" for you SEMI whiners too I think with the hell I've lived through the past several years, I've earned the right to whine. SE MI is a completely different story. Anyway, did I do better than the 0.86" from the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still a good run for South Central Indiana? Really? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still a good run for South Central Indiana? Nope! All rain now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For those wondering the Euro QPF looks near identical to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think with the hell I've lived through the past several years, I've earned the right to whine. SE MI is a completely different story. Anyway, did I do better than the 0.86" from the 12z run? You'll be fine for a decent storm. It might not be epic, but 4-6" would be the low end, and a 9-12" range likely for the high end. Not out of the question to get greater, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Per Will in the SNE thread, the low is about 4 mb stronger on the 0z EURO. Seems to jibe with some of the obs some of you posted. You might as well ride consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nope! All rain now.... Just kidding!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still a good run for South Central Indiana? :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 System heading deeper south than expected as per current obs in this case = picking up more moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Still a good run for South Central Indiana? Seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The RAP has the surface low down to 996 mb at 22z...it's the outer period but if anything it initialized a bit too weak so maybe it will be close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0°C line stays south of the Ohio River west of Cincinnati on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Some real straw grasping going on...surface low is only a few mb deeper than progged. The 1000mb mark is arbitrary. If things play out as it looks like they will, Euro will have smashed this one out of the park. Stayed solid as a rock as other models windshield wiped around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think with the hell I've lived through the past several years, I've earned the right to whine. SE MI is a completely different story. Anyway, did I do better than the 0.86" from the 12z run? I meant just for the SEMI people who are going back and forth from bandwagon to bandwagon... your winters have been practically hell on earth the past couple years. And you did... a whole .04" better. Up to .9" now for YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Seriously Just living up to my "weenie" nomination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just living up to my "weenie" nomination That's not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just living up to my "weenie" nomination This is not the thread to do that. I urge you to click where it says Storm Mode in Effect and read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just living up to my "weenie" nomination More of a source of data friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This is not the thread to do that. I urge you to click where it says Storm Mode in Effect and read that. Geez. Alrighty...tough crowd. I was joking. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Painful model watching for JOMO and St Louis Looks pretty quiet until next yr if the next one scoots SE of most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Toronto to Ottawa still firmly in the game! Really pulling for this system to dish it out for Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z ECMWF Text List PAH: WED 00Z 26-DEC 1.8 1.1 1015 80 73 0.03 552 541 WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.8 -0.3 1006 84 100 0.30 548 543 WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -5.2 1005 89 92 0.60 540 536 WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.5 -5.2 1012 79 89 0.25 545 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.2 -5.9 1018 77 22 0.01 553 539 DEC: WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.8 -5.7 1016 72 79 0.01 546 533 WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -5.8 1015 69 79 0.03 545 533 VPZ: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -5.6 1016 72 98 0.02 545 532 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -8.1 1017 76 92 0.04 545 531 LAF: WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.9 -5.7 1015 73 93 0.01 546 535 WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -4.1 1013 79 97 0.24 544 533 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -7.5 1016 81 91 0.10 545 533 IND: WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.5 -2.7 1011 84 99 0.17 547 538 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -5.3 1009 91 98 0.54 543 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.2 -8.4 1014 87 74 0.14 545 534 BMG: WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.1 -1.6 1016 75 80 0.02 551 538 WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.0 -1.9 1008 86 99 0.36 546 539 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.6 1007 88 97 0.53 542 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -8.1 1014 84 70 0.09 546 535 OKK: WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.0 -4.5 1014 81 98 0.01 547 536 WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.1 -3.9 1011 89 99 0.32 543 534 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.3 1014 87 85 0.19 544 533 FWA: WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -4.7 1011 89 97 0.28 544 535 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.4 1013 86 95 0.26 543 532 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.9 1015 84 51 0.02 546 534 GRR: THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -6.2 1018 77 98 0.04 544 530 THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.2 -6.0 1018 79 82 0.01 544 531 BTL: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -6.8 1016 72 90 0.02 545 532 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.3 1016 81 99 0.12 543 531 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.8 -6.5 1016 82 72 0.03 545 532 MOP: THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.9 -6.9 1019 78 91 0.02 544 529 THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.5 -6.3 1018 80 95 0.02 543 529 PTK: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -6.4 1017 73 84 0.01 546 533 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.5 1015 81 98 0.19 543 531 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.7 -7.8 1014 85 89 0.15 542 532 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.1 1016 86 83 0.03 545 532 THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.9 -6.0 1018 78 46 0.01 548 534 DTW: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -5.8 1015 78 96 0.06 546 535 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.5 1014 84 98 0.30 543 532 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.4 -8.2 1013 85 87 0.15 542 532 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.4 1015 85 78 0.03 545 533 DET: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.9 1016 75 97 0.04 547 534 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.4 1014 85 98 0.31 543 532 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.5 1012 86 90 0.19 542 532 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.4 -7.6 1015 86 84 0.04 544 532 THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.4 -6.2 1017 76 50 0.01 548 534 JXN: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -7.0 1015 75 94 0.04 545 533 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.8 -7.9 1015 84 97 0.21 543 531 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1015 84 91 0.05 543 532 THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.0 -6.4 1018 85 60 0.01 547 533 TDZ: WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -4.7 1011 89 98 0.20 546 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.0 1011 89 96 0.42 542 534 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.7 1012 86 83 0.12 542 533 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.9 1016 85 69 0.02 546 534 DAY: WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -0.6 1010 85 100 0.24 550 542 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -3.1 1005 92 100 0.66 543 540 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.7 -5.6 1007 91 91 0.17 542 537 THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.0 -7.6 1012 88 63 0.03 545 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.4 -8.5 1018 88 33 0.01 550 536 HAO: WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.2 -0.7 1018 72 75 0.01 553 539 WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -0.6 1008 88 100 0.35 550 543 WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.1 -2.9 1003 91 87 0.54 543 540 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -5.4 1007 89 90 0.08 543 537 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.8 1013 85 48 0.01 547 536 CMH: WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -0.1 1012 83 100 0.14 552 542 WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.2 -2.8 1005 89 100 0.67 545 541 THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -3.1 1004 89 95 0.15 542 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.7 -7.1 1008 91 82 0.02 542 536 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.6 1015 87 63 0.01 548 536 CLE: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.7 -2.8 1011 85 100 0.24 548 539 THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.8 -6.1 1008 90 100 0.54 543 536 THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.0 -7.1 1007 88 93 0.23 541 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.6 1013 85 71 0.06 543 533 THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.2 -8.1 1016 80 54 0.02 548 535 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -0.7 -7.5 1018 83 27 0.01 551 536 FRI 06Z 28-DEC -2.8 -5.4 1019 86 10 0.01 551 536 YKF: THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.3 -5.3 1016 67 99 0.08 547 534 THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.5 -5.7 1012 84 100 0.33 542 532 THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.8 -8.7 1013 85 97 0.31 540 530 THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.9 -8.1 1014 75 72 0.04 542 531 YYZ: THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.5 -5.6 1017 71 98 0.05 547 534 THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.0 -6.1 1013 85 100 0.31 543 533 THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.2 -8.2 1012 87 98 0.47 540 530 THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.2 -8.8 1014 79 81 0.06 541 530 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.0 -7.5 1016 85 65 0.01 544 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Highest pressure falls over DFW. This thing seems to be really digging. No idea what it means in the long run but it could lead to a quicker phase/quicker neg tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 People are all over the place with their interpretations of the models. Some saying it will be further SE because the storm is a good deal further south/stronger right now than it was progged on the models, and others are saying that because it's stronger than predicted right now it might cut further NW. No one ever knows for sure until the storm is over. A jog north, a jog east, anything could still happen but we do have a pretty good idea of the ballpark range of where it will be hitting. A few miles either way will make a big difference for many including myself. Honestly, I could see myself with 6" of new snow by Thursday morning and I could see myself just the same getting a glorified dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Highest pressure falls over DFW. This thing seems to be really digging. No idea what it means in the long run but it could lead to a quicker phase/quicker neg tilt. DFW would be a good ways north of the model's (most of them except Euro which only does 24 hour forecasts), IF it gets a quicker phase that is what those of us on the NW fringe of this system really needs to see to help our chances, going to be a long day watching this sucker as family allows.. Merry Christmas y'all too btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The one place I would like to live for this storm is Cleveland. They are getting hit pretty good from every model, and they have a bit of wiggle room for both a NW and a SE trend, plus lake enhancement is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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