December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III

snowstormcanuck · December 25, 2012

Maybe the final thread I ever create at americanwx. To be used once the II thread is at capacity.

AppsRunner · December 25, 2012

Maybe the final thread I ever create at americanwx. To be used once the II thread is at capacity.

And the ECMWF continues to drive you insane... already 8 tenths of an inch and its not finished yet. DTW .56" for you SEMI whiners too

snowstormcanuck · December 25, 2012

Per Will in the SNE thread, the low is about 4 mb stronger on the 0z EURO. Seems to jibe the obs some of you posted.

PatrickSumner · December 25, 2012

And the ECMWF continues to drive you insane... already 8 tenths of an inch and its not finished yet. DTW .56" for you SEMI whiners too

Still a good run for South Central Indiana?

snowstormcanuck · December 25, 2012

And the ECMWF continues to drive you insane... already 8 tenths of an inch and its not finished yet. DTW .56" for you SEMI whiners too

I think with the hell I've lived through the past several years, I've earned the right to whine. SE MI is a completely different story.

Anyway, did I do better than the 0.86" from the 12z run?

LanceJA91 · December 25, 2012

Still a good run for South Central Indiana?

Really? lol

chuckster2013 · December 25, 2012

Still a good run for South Central Indiana?

Nope! All rain now....

Harry · December 25, 2012

For those wondering the Euro QPF looks near identical to the 12z run.

wisconsinwx · December 25, 2012

I think with the hell I've lived through the past several years, I've earned the right to whine. SE MI is a completely different story.

Anyway, did I do better than the 0.86" from the 12z run?

You'll be fine for a decent storm. It might not be epic, but 4-6" would be the low end, and a 9-12" range likely for the high end. Not out of the question to get greater, though.

kab2791 · December 25, 2012

Per Will in the SNE thread, the low is about 4 mb stronger on the 0z EURO. Seems to jibe with some of the obs some of you posted.

You might as well ride consistency

chuckster2013 · December 25, 2012

Nope! All rain now....

Just kidding!!!

Chargers09 · December 25, 2012

Still a good run for South Central Indiana?

:weenie: :weenie:

harrisale · December 25, 2012

System heading deeper south than expected as per current obs in this case = picking up more moisture?

Central Illinois · December 25, 2012

Still a good run for South Central Indiana?

Seriously :deadhorse:

Hoosier · December 25, 2012

The RAP has the surface low down to 996 mb at 22z...it's the outer period but if anything it initialized a bit too weak so maybe it will be close to that.

Geos · December 25, 2012

0°C line stays south of the Ohio River west of Cincinnati on the EURO.

hm8 · December 25, 2012

Some real straw grasping going on...surface low is only a few mb deeper than progged. The 1000mb mark is arbitrary.

If things play out as it looks like they will, Euro will have smashed this one out of the park. Stayed solid as a rock as other models windshield wiped around it.

AppsRunner · December 25, 2012

I think with the hell I've lived through the past several years, I've earned the right to whine. SE MI is a completely different story.

Anyway, did I do better than the 0.86" from the 12z run?

I meant just for the SEMI people who are going back and forth from bandwagon to bandwagon... your winters have been practically hell on earth the past couple years. And you did... a whole .04" better. Up to .9" now for YYZ

PatrickSumner · December 25, 2012

Seriously

Just living up to my "weenie" nomination

andyhb · December 25, 2012

Just living up to my "weenie" nomination

That's not a good thing.

Harry · December 25, 2012

Just living up to my "weenie" nomination

This is not the thread to do that. I urge you to click where it says Storm Mode in Effect and read that.

Fickle Heights · December 25, 2012

Just living up to my "weenie" nomination

More of a source of data friction.

PatrickSumner · December 25, 2012

This is not the thread to do that. I urge you to click where it says Storm Mode in Effect and read that.

Geez. Alrighty...tough crowd. I was joking. Good night.

BowMeHunter · December 25, 2012

Painful model watching for JOMO and St Louis Looks pretty quiet until next yr if the next one scoots SE of most of us.

Geos · December 25, 2012

Toronto to Ottawa still firmly in the game! Really pulling for this system to dish it out for Toronto! :snowing:

Chicago Storm · December 25, 2012

0z ECMWF Text List

PAH:

WED 00Z 26-DEC 1.8 1.1 1015 80 73 0.03 552 541
WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.8 -0.3 1006 84 100 0.30 548 543
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -5.2 1005 89 92 0.60 540 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.5 -5.2 1012 79 89 0.25 545 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.2 -5.9 1018 77 22 0.01 553 539

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.8 -5.7 1016 72 79 0.01 546 533
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -5.8 1015 69 79 0.03 545 533

VPZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -5.6 1016 72 98 0.02 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -8.1 1017 76 92 0.04 545 531

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.9 -5.7 1015 73 93 0.01 546 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -4.1 1013 79 97 0.24 544 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -7.5 1016 81 91 0.10 545 533

IND:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.5 -2.7 1011 84 99 0.17 547 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -5.3 1009 91 98 0.54 543 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.2 -8.4 1014 87 74 0.14 545 534

BMG:

WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.1 -1.6 1016 75 80 0.02 551 538
WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.0 -1.9 1008 86 99 0.36 546 539
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.6 1007 88 97 0.53 542 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -8.1 1014 84 70 0.09 546 535

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.0 -4.5 1014 81 98 0.01 547 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.1 -3.9 1011 89 99 0.32 543 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.3 1014 87 85 0.19 544 533

FWA:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -4.7 1011 89 97 0.28 544 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.4 1013 86 95 0.26 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.9 1015 84 51 0.02 546 534

GRR:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -6.2 1018 77 98 0.04 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.2 -6.0 1018 79 82 0.01 544 531

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -6.8 1016 72 90 0.02 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.3 1016 81 99 0.12 543 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.8 -6.5 1016 82 72 0.03 545 532

MOP:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.9 -6.9 1019 78 91 0.02 544 529
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.5 -6.3 1018 80 95 0.02 543 529

PTK:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -6.4 1017 73 84 0.01 546 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.5 1015 81 98 0.19 543 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.7 -7.8 1014 85 89 0.15 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.1 1016 86 83 0.03 545 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.9 -6.0 1018 78 46 0.01 548 534

DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -5.8 1015 78 96 0.06 546 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.5 1014 84 98 0.30 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.4 -8.2 1013 85 87 0.15 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.4 1015 85 78 0.03 545 533

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.9 1016 75 97 0.04 547 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.4 1014 85 98 0.31 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.5 1012 86 90 0.19 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.4 -7.6 1015 86 84 0.04 544 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.4 -6.2 1017 76 50 0.01 548 534

JXN:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -7.0 1015 75 94 0.04 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.8 -7.9 1015 84 97 0.21 543 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1015 84 91 0.05 543 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.0 -6.4 1018 85 60 0.01 547 533

TDZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -4.7 1011 89 98 0.20 546 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.0 1011 89 96 0.42 542 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.7 1012 86 83 0.12 542 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.9 1016 85 69 0.02 546 534

DAY:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -0.6 1010 85 100 0.24 550 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -3.1 1005 92 100 0.66 543 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.7 -5.6 1007 91 91 0.17 542 537
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.0 -7.6 1012 88 63 0.03 545 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.4 -8.5 1018 88 33 0.01 550 536

HAO:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.2 -0.7 1018 72 75 0.01 553 539
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -0.6 1008 88 100 0.35 550 543
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.1 -2.9 1003 91 87 0.54 543 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.1 -5.4 1007 89 90 0.08 543 537
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.8 1013 85 48 0.01 547 536

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -0.1 1012 83 100 0.14 552 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.2 -2.8 1005 89 100 0.67 545 541
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -3.1 1004 89 95 0.15 542 539
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.7 -7.1 1008 91 82 0.02 542 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.6 1015 87 63 0.01 548 536

CLE:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.7 -2.8 1011 85 100 0.24 548 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.8 -6.1 1008 90 100 0.54 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.0 -7.1 1007 88 93 0.23 541 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.6 1013 85 71 0.06 543 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.2 -8.1 1016 80 54 0.02 548 535
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -0.7 -7.5 1018 83 27 0.01 551 536
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -2.8 -5.4 1019 86 10 0.01 551 536

YKF:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.3 -5.3 1016 67 99 0.08 547 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.5 -5.7 1012 84 100 0.33 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.8 -8.7 1013 85 97 0.31 540 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.9 -8.1 1014 75 72 0.04 542 531

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.5 -5.6 1017 71 98 0.05 547 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.0 -6.1 1013 85 100 0.31 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.2 -8.2 1012 87 98 0.47 540 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.2 -8.8 1014 79 81 0.06 541 530
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.0 -7.5 1016 85 65 0.01 544 531

Chargers09 · December 25, 2012

Highest pressure falls over DFW. This thing seems to be really digging. No idea what it means in the long run but it could lead to a quicker phase/quicker neg tilt.

stormtrackertf · December 25, 2012

People are all over the place with their interpretations of the models. Some saying it will be further SE because the storm is a good deal further south/stronger right now than it was progged on the models, and others are saying that because it's stronger than predicted right now it might cut further NW.

No one ever knows for sure until the storm is over. A jog north, a jog east, anything could still happen but we do have a pretty good idea of the ballpark range of where it will be hitting. A few miles either way will make a big difference for many including myself. Honestly, I could see myself with 6" of new snow by Thursday morning and I could see myself just the same getting a glorified dusting.

jhamps10 · December 25, 2012

Highest pressure falls over DFW. This thing seems to be really digging. No idea what it means in the long run but it could lead to a quicker phase/quicker neg tilt.

DFW would be a good ways north of the model's (most of them except Euro which only does 24 hour forecasts), IF it gets a quicker phase that is what those of us on the NW fringe of this system really needs to see to help our chances, going to be a long day watching this sucker as family allows..

Merry Christmas y'all too btw

wisconsinwx · December 25, 2012

The one place I would like to live for this storm is Cleveland. They are getting hit pretty good from every model, and they have a bit of wiggle room for both a NW and a SE trend, plus lake enhancement is a possibility.

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December 26 - 27 Winter Storm III

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