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Vendor Forecast Discussion

am19psu

By am19psu,
in Philadelphia Region

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ABE SnowObserver

ABE SnowObserver

Posted
Posted

My faith/trust has always been with Larry since watching him back in the late 80's/early 90's on channel 29 wtxf (now fox29)...

Or was it channel 17...oh my, guess I'm getting old ;)

Any specific details...?

I think it was channel 17 (WPHL) and then moved up to WOR channel 9 in NY for awhile until Frank and Storm Field took over.  I think that was the timeline.  Always made a point o watch him on channel 17 when I was growing up.  Very polite and nice man.

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GD0815

GD0815

Posted
Posted

JB hanging it out there big time - going for 3" DC, 4" BWI, 6" PHL (with potential for 12"), 9" NYC, Bridgeport,CT to Boston 1-2'

 

And just to keep the readship sucked in, there will be more threats until 4/15

If this is his current forecast, it is really out there.  

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bigtenfan

bigtenfan

Posted
Posted

I think it was channel 17 (WPHL) and then moved up to WOR channel 9 in NY for awhile until Frank and Storm Field took over.  I think that was the timeline.  Always made a point o watch him on channel 17 when I was growing up.  Very polite and nice man.

I could not agree more. He was the first to sniff out the Jan 96 storm  almost a full week ahead of time.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

From JB this PM (Again although I post his thoughts - and I do think he an excellent MET it by no means says I agree with his below...)

 

March 23 03:14 PM

 

"As of this writing, and though there looks to be a bit of an eastward drift of the models... I have no changes.

The call is for the center of the storm to be near 40 north and 70 west, sometime between 06z and 18z Wednesday, Here is the method behind the madness. This had a 985 low near 36 north and 69 west, but the appendage northwest to where I believe the true center will be. Now lets look at the current forecast for the same time ( ECWMF) IT PULLS A FUJIWARA watch the northwest system move east, the eastern system swing up.. I don't know that I have seen something like this, so I am having a lot of problems thinking this can happen. At 60 hrs,Both centers are stronger, but closer together. The southeastern system has trended a bit west, The northern center a bit east. But this is the problem, One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why. If we look at the 60 hour 500 mb, valid 00z March 26 the trough is still well back, and the "tucking" of the upper height lines argues for the western system. As I have pointed out, this is over the warm bend in the SST for one and for 2) likely where the TRUE arctic front is. So the strongest height falls are hitting the area where the water is warmest and the true arctic front is. The model is trying to develop the convective feedback system on the Polar front to the southeast. Of course if it is right, I am wrong about what I see to be a 1-2 foot storm southeast of the Boston to Bridgeport line with 6 -12 PHL to Bridgeport in the crucial corridor. You can see it starting some kind of warm core feed back where it bends the red 540Hgt line. However the place where the focus of the vort packing is located is right off the va capes. That "pulls" the storm east....Even so the snowfall at 10-1 ratios is impressive for late march and not that far away from my idea, and if all this works out, the most likely solution ...basically have the model spinning up a warm core system from the southeastern low, which is suspect. Now consider this: The way all this happens is the initial snowband plainly in the I-95 corridor and simply amplifies stronger and stronger as the northwest system develops, and the system southeast of it is an appendage THAT GETS PULLED INTO IT? The models all are saying the northwest system gets pulled into the southeast system, which develops way out there. And I see that.. see how I am dead wrong. But there is a) no confluence in front of this by 60 hours.. so why is the warming off shore not going to proceed around the northwest center. If the low is weaker.. by several mb then the northwest storm is the storm! So the net result for now is to stay where I am .. I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out... For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see. Here we are, late March and look at this. And given the pattern I am seeing through April 15, while warming is coming, so is blocking and with plenty of cold holding in central Canada this may not be the last threat. Not like it hasn't happened before.. 1982,1983, 1972. 1997 etc as examples. Whether this comes or not.. the fact that after this winter, the cold this week and this threat continues to show how wild this winter was"

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Kevin Reilly

Kevin Reilly

Posted
Posted

From JB this PM (Again although I post his thoughts - and I do think he an excellent MET it by no means says I agree with his below...)

 

March 23 03:14 PM

 

"As of this writing, and though there looks to be a bit of an eastward drift of the models... I have no changes.

The call is for the center of the storm to be near 40 north and 70 west, sometime between 06z and 18z Wednesday, Here is the method behind the madness. This had a 985 low near 36 north and 69 west, but the appendage northwest to where I believe the true center will be. Now lets look at the current forecast for the same time ( ECWMF) IT PULLS A FUJIWARA watch the northwest system move east, the eastern system swing up.. I don't know that I have seen something like this, so I am having a lot of problems thinking this can happen. At 60 hrs,Both centers are stronger, but closer together. The southeastern system has trended a bit west, The northern center a bit east. But this is the problem, One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why. If we look at the 60 hour 500 mb, valid 00z March 26 the trough is still well back, and the "tucking" of the upper height lines argues for the western system. As I have pointed out, this is over the warm bend in the SST for one and for 2) likely where the TRUE arctic front is. So the strongest height falls are hitting the area where the water is warmest and the true arctic front is. The model is trying to develop the convective feedback system on the Polar front to the southeast. Of course if it is right, I am wrong about what I see to be a 1-2 foot storm southeast of the Boston to Bridgeport line with 6 -12 PHL to Bridgeport in the crucial corridor. You can see it starting some kind of warm core feed back where it bends the red 540Hgt line. However the place where the focus of the vort packing is located is right off the va capes. That "pulls" the storm east....Even so the snowfall at 10-1 ratios is impressive for late march and not that far away from my idea, and if all this works out, the most likely solution ...basically have the model spinning up a warm core system from the southeastern low, which is suspect. Now consider this: The way all this happens is the initial snowband plainly in the I-95 corridor and simply amplifies stronger and stronger as the northwest system develops, and the system southeast of it is an appendage THAT GETS PULLED INTO IT? The models all are saying the northwest system gets pulled into the southeast system, which develops way out there. And I see that.. see how I am dead wrong. But there is a) no confluence in front of this by 60 hours.. so why is the warming off shore not going to proceed around the northwest center. If the low is weaker.. by several mb then the northwest storm is the storm! So the net result for now is to stay where I am .. I like 3 in DC 4 WI 6 PHL 9 NYC ( give me plus/minus 25% on this, okay) but Bridgeport to Boston.. look out... For now thats my story and I am sticking to it. though plainly modeling has shifted east a bit on me. My theory is there is so much cold air now the model actually sees coming into the area where the storm develops in 2 days, that its jumping on that. but once the high is offshore and the energy gets into this, then its a different story. But we shall see. Here we are, late March and look at this. And given the pattern I am seeing through April 15, while warming is coming, so is blocking and with plenty of cold holding in central Canada this may not be the last threat. Not like it hasn't happened before.. 1982,1983, 1972. 1997 etc as examples. Whether this comes or not.. the fact that after this winter, the cold this week and this threat continues to show how wild this winter was"

Sorry in the back of my mind I was thinking the same thing looking at the 12z GFS but.... honestly all this above is HYPE!  I am with Ralph I will be impressed if we get 1-2" and surprised at the same time!  This storm is clearly a miss to the east!

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chubbs

chubbs

Posted
Posted

Sorry - Kevin I disagree with hype....he does have scientific rationale for his forecast so I can't call it hype. That said we all knew he was unlikely to be close to reality with this one.

 

Sure its hype. He knows what the subscribers want to hear. There is no support for that outcome.

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Sorry - Kevin I disagree with hype....he does have scientific rationale for his forecast so I can't call it hype. That said we all knew he was unlikely to be close to reality with this one.

 

Let me preface this by stating that 1). It has been many years since I have directly read Mr. Bastardi so I may be working with "old data" here; and 2). Even though I stopped reading him, I will be the first to admit that he has amazing skill and knowledge in the field so please don't construe anything I say as attacking him or his abilities. 

 

On the subject of his most recent "forecast" (the one posted by him yesterday afternoon and paraphrased on here shortly thereafter)), he used to always state (and I assume still does) that he was not a "flip flopper" and that he learned long ago to make the best forecast he could with the data and tools at his disposal and, then, don't change it with each following model run unless and until there has been a clear and obvious change.  In that manner, he ensures that, even when he busts, "he is only wrong once" rather than multiple times like most model huggers who update their forecast each time there is new model info to consider.  It is a reasonable and rational way to do things.... but, on occasion.... and this appears to be one of those occasions.... it seems like (and this is totally my opinion and not based on anything but my own potentially incorrect perception) he holds on to a bad forecast for way too long just because he knows he's already busted and there is nothing to gain by changing it to another forecast that could also prove wrong in the end.  This way, while he still busts, he avoids being a "flip flopper".... and, unfortunately, we get stuck with a bad forecast hanging out there for longer than it ought to.    

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chubbs

chubbs

Posted
Posted

guess you didn't read his reasoning....if you say no models then sure but a forecaster only uses a model as a tool to help with the forecast not as a basis for the forecast....

 I did read it. Like I said what the weenies want to hear. He didn't mention the breakdown of the western ridge, the progressive nature of the trough or the jet streak placement that support an offshore solution. All are meteorology 101. 

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svh19044

svh19044

Posted
Posted

What exactly is the WPC Probabilistic Precip. Guidance comprised of/from?  It's pretty easy to see why there are many forecasts in the 2-4 range for SEPA, but it leaves a possibility almost as equally as likely in the 4-6 range. 

 

It's really been hit or miss this season, however it does not seem to match up with any exact models (especially when it comes to verification). 

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

What exactly is the WPC Probabilistic Precip. Guidance comprised of/from?  It's pretty easy to see why there are many forecasts in the 2-4 range for SEPA, but it leaves a possibility almost as equally as likely in the 4-6 range. 

 

It's really been hit or miss this season, however it does not seem to match up with any exact models (especially when it comes to verification). 

Well right now they have a 10% chance of 4 inches in SE PA.  Sometimes I wonder if people realize that a 10% of 4 inches means a 90% of less.

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svh19044

svh19044

Posted
Posted

Well right now they have a 10% chance of 4 inches in SE PA.  Sometimes I wonder if people realize that a 10% of 4 inches means a 90% of less.

 

It is showing a 20-30% chance of greater than or equal to 4", and  a 60-70% chance of greater than or equal to 2" for SEPA.  You might be looking in NJ.  Or I might be reading it wrong.

 

Either way, I don't see any models that match up with their guidance of where the snow is. 

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

It is showing a 20-30% chance of greater than or equal to 4", and  a 60-70% chance of greater than or equal to 2" for SEPA.  You might be looking in NJ.  Or I might be reading it wrong.

 

Either way, I don't see any models that match up with their guidance of where the snow is. 

We're looking at different products most likely.  What are you looking at?  Honestly, and some people will act very shocked by this, I am not often looking at WPC guidance.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Ken - you said that 1000x better than I ever could - this is exactly my thoughts on JB

Thx

Paul

Let me preface this by stating that 1). It has been many years since I have directly read Mr. Bastardi so I may be working with "old data" here; and 2). Even though I stopped reading him, I will be the first to admit that he has amazing skill and knowledge in the field so please don't construe anything I say as attacking him or his abilities. 

 

On the subject of his most recent "forecast" (the one posted by him yesterday afternoon and paraphrased on here shortly thereafter)), he used to always state (and I assume still does) that he was not a "flip flopper" and that he learned long ago to make the best forecast he could with the data and tools at his disposal and, then, don't change it with each following model run unless and until there has been a clear and obvious change.  In that manner, he ensures that, even when he busts, "he is only wrong once" rather than multiple times like most model huggers who update their forecast each time there is new model info to consider.  It is a reasonable and rational way to do things.... but, on occasion.... and this appears to be one of those occasions.... it seems like (and this is totally my opinion and not based on anything but my own potentially incorrect perception) he holds on to a bad forecast for way too long just because he knows he's already busted and there is nothing to gain by changing it to another forecast that could also prove wrong in the end.  This way, while he still busts, he avoids being a "flip flopper".... and, unfortunately, we get stuck with a bad forecast hanging out there for longer than it ought to.    

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

From Mr. Bastardi earlier this AM

 

"The snowstorm today in the Mid-Atlantic states and southeast New England has models glued to pulling the western low center you will see developing near Cape Hatteras today into the eastern low center. This would spare southeast New England a crushing storm and reduce amounts from PHL to NYC to just an inch or two (with DC seeing just a bit more). I am still not fully aboard here, as foolish as that may seem, as I want to watch this evolve today. The fact is that the "jump" that occurs between 30 and 36 hours is the crucial aspect of this, and with moderate to heavy snows likely breaking out south of the Mason-Dixon line today and what looks to be a comma head developing on the cloud shot:

While it's the 9th inning, the home team still has one more at bat. To be clear, I am only talking about a shift northwestward of 100 miles. The idea is the snow that you see in the Mid-Atlantic part of the I-95 corridor today will simply expand northeastward (like in a storm that develops and moves to the northeast without this jump the models are seeing). It's not such a big shift that would bring excess snows into DC to NYC, but just shift the blizzard on Cape Cod back west a bit"

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chubbs

chubbs

Posted
Posted

It looks like he finally came around this PM....of course blamed his stubbornness and the famous "no one lives at 500mb" - as the 500mb has the low where he thought the surface would be.....

 

What a hack. 500 mb and all other main storm features are as progged by the models for past 4-5 days.  

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Sorry Chubbs...I would never insult a professional on this site. I guess I am different from many on here as I value all professionals and their insights...but I can't make others show this respect....but it is kind of sad to see IMHO.....

Paul

  

 

What a hack. 500 mb and all other main storm features are as progged by the models for past 4-5 days.  

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