am19psu Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Everyone has their weaknesses, and I'd wager to say most mets have some sort of bias in their forecasts I certainly don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 While I admit my data is currently more based on personal experience with my conversations with other mets, let's go to the polls: http://www.americanw...-meteorologist/ A poll on this forum open to ALL members is certainly not a a poll of "most mets". Not even close. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 this is true...I guess I have supported him both at Accuweather and WB - but although I support him I certainly know his biases...that said I still go to the NWS for my first and main source of weather but I do enjoy WB, Steve over at NJ PA along with a couple METS at AccuWeather. Call me a glutton for weather information!! He's not Bastardi but he's been one of his staunchest supporters going back years. No harm in that...that's his choice and his dime to spend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 A poll on this forum open to ALL members is certainly not a a poll of "most mets". Not even close. Just saying. I'm getting a poll which includes mets on the forum. I'm not using everyone who voted... just the mets. Not the largest sample size ever, but we do have mets from all walks of life that visit this forum regularly. I could have posted it in the Met Only forum, but I'd rather it be out in the open so everyone can see the results. So far, 6 mets (and 3 pro forecasters) are not fans of JB, with just one pro JB met. We'll give it several days and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm getting a poll which includes mets on the forum. I'm not using everyone who voted... just the mets. Not the largest sample size ever, but we do have mets from all walks of life that visit this forum regularly. I could have posted it in the Met Only forum, but I'd rather it be out in the open so everyone can see the results. So far, 6 mets (and 3 pro forecasters) are not fans of JB, with just one pro JB met. We'll give it several days and see what happens. Where is this poll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Where is this poll? There you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Sad to see this sort of negative posts about professionals from a professional. Perhaps you should say that to JB as he is known to rip other pro-mets, such as the NWS for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Mike....I would most certainly agree with you on that....I love passion for weather but can do without JBs or anyone bashing other METS or organizations.... Paul Perhaps you should say that to JB as he is known to rip other pro-mets, such as the NWS for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Pretty interesting turn this thread has taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 After a few days, a poll of mets on the American Weather Forum shows 15 meteorologists who do not find JB to be a credible met (in addition to 4 pro forecasters), and 2 meteorologists that do. Including the general population of AmWx, almost 3/4 of those who voted do not support JB. Please consider this information when looking at and discussing JB's forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 After a few days, a poll of mets on the American Weather Forum shows 15 meteorologists who do not find JB to be a credible met (in addition to 4 pro forecasters), and 2 meteorologists that do. Including the general population of AmWx, almost 3/4 of those who voted do not support JB. Please consider this information when looking at and discussing JB's forecasts. And from an outside perspective, we have all seen the same pro meteorologists degrading others have catastrophic forecast failures over and over again themselves. It's pretty tough to call out the credibility of ones forecasts when those questioning have certainly had their fair share of failed forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 And from an outside perspective, we have all seen the same pro meteorologists degrading others have catastrophic forecast failures over and over again themselves. It's pretty tough to call out the credibility of ones forecasts when those questioning have certainly had their fair share of failed forecasting. Please clarify, preferably with names. It's not clear to me who you're calling out as the hypocrites who fail at forecasting but call out others for their forecast failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Please clarify, preferably with names. It's not clear to me who you're calling out as the hypocrites who fail at forecasting but call out others for their forecast failures. The poll that you pointed to, and your posts which clarifies just how many mets discredit another met. I don't think that it is really necessary to go through each and every met on this board and their flops. It's a pointless endeavor, and the real point is that many of those who browse this forum prefer not to read these grade-school like polls and posts. If you don't like another met for one reason or another, that is fine also. But if they are providing their reasoning on why they forecast the way that they do, there is zero reason for the attacks on those individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Through 12/3: Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +23 (+7.67) JB Needs: -85 (-3.1/day here on out) Tomorrow and Wednesday ain't going to help him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The poll that you pointed to, and your posts which clarifies just how many mets discredit another met. I don't think that it is really necessary to go through each and every met on this board and their flops. There's a difference between making a realistic forecast and failing vs always going for the extreme solutions and failing (especially since the latter option occurs much more frequently). Success as a forecaster is not about always getting it right, because that would be impossible. It's about being as accurate as you can and trying your best not to fail. By almost always going for the extreme solutions, Bastardi sets himself up to fail (and sometimes does so quite spectacularly) much more so than the more credible mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Through 12/4 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +39 (+9.75) JB Needs: -101 (-3.7/day here on out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Through 12/4 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +39 (+9.75) JB Needs: -101 (-3.7/day here on out) You are enjoying this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 You are enjoying this This is just a warm up act...I can't wait until that 60-65 on Monday verifies (assuming it does). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 You are enjoying this Validating one's opinion in real time can be quite satisfactory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Validating one's opinion in real time can be quite satisfactory. I wonder how much input jb has over at weatherbell. I mean i follow dr maue on twitter and he seems like he knows his stuff. Then you get Jb and its a total lolz on some of his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I wonder how much input jb has over at weatherbell. I mean i follow dr maue on twitter and he seems like he knows his stuff. Then you get Jb and its a total lolz on some of his thoughts. Maue's pretty reasonable unless he starts talking about climate change or politics. In those aspects he and JB are usually in the same boat. Also, heaven forbid you criticize his maps Maue also has a penchant for cold and tropics. Quickly glancing through his recent tweets, there's a bunch of stuff about the cold up north in Alaska, but just a quick post or two about the record warmth some of the CONUS is experiencing. He's had a consistent bias in talking up the cold. EDIT: Looking back further, Maue's posts seem fairly balanced nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maue and I got into fights a lot when he first got on twitter. He's much better now, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maue's pretty reasonable unless he starts talking about climate change or politics. In those aspects he and JB are usually in the same boat. Also, heaven forbid you criticize his maps Are his model snow maps less sucky than they used to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Are his model snow maps less sucky than they used to be? No idea... the only maps of theirs I see are the ones they tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 No idea... the only maps of theirs I see are the ones they tweet. I assume he made the weatherbell model page? If so, not bad at all on some of the graphics. I would pay for weatherbell for the models. Maybe they would give me a discount if they could give me the models joe d and ryan and leave out jb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I assume he made the weatherbell model page? If so, not bad at all on some of the graphics. I would pay for weatherbell for the models. Maybe they would give me a discount if they could give me the models joe d and ryan and leave out jb. From what I've seen, Maue's 100% of the reason why WeatherBell now has their model graphics. There was a thread started in the Weather Marketplace sub-forum about their models page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 If WB had the speed of SV in terms of when it comes out, id probably switch over. Also, if it got euro ens that would be a big incentive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 The question is how long will it take for JB to modify his forecast? Or does he just let it ride......reading his posts today I think the latter. I predict he will mention he had the pattern but was too quick with the cold. A classic Jbism of delayed but not denied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I assume he made the weatherbell model page? If so, not bad at all on some of the graphics. I would pay for weatherbell for the models. Maybe they would give me a discount if they could give me the models joe d and ryan and leave out jb. Some of the graphics out there look pretty sharp, I agree...I wasn't sure if the snow maps had improved because they were pretty weenieish at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Through 12/5 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +46 (+9.2) JB Needs: -108 (-4.1/day here on out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.