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NNE Winter Thread

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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0Z GFS has a decent front end thump for a lot of NNE. 2-4"...sleet, zr, then eventually rain and low 40's but I think the CAD would hang pretty tough up here...

Yeah BTV seemed to lean a bit more wintery in their update last night...

NICE STRETCH IS SHORT-LIVED WITH INCR CLDS FROM THE

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS NEXT LOW APPROACHES REGION...BY 00Z MONDAY.

MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS AS MORE POTENT THAN

TODAY/S. MDL QPF FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT SUN NGT THRU MONDAY WILL

BRING 0.40-0.60" OF PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY...HAVING HIGH

PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH ALLOWS FOR CAA INTO THE AREA...RECHARGING

LL COLD AIR. OVERNGT LOWS WILL DROP TO 32F OR LWR IN MANY AREAS

BFR ONSET OF PRECIP. WARM AIR ALOFT WITH THIS LOFT WILL NOT CHANGE

PRECIP OVER TIL AFT 06Z MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SO...INITIALLY

PRECIP WILL BE AS LGT SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AFT

06Z THRU 18Z MONDAY...THEN RAIN. WITH QPF SO HIGH...SEVERAL INCHES OF

SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR 0.03-0.30" OF FREEZING

RAIN. MOST PRONE AREAS FOR ICE ACCUM WILL BE IN THE DACKS AND ALL

OF EASTERN VERMONT DUE TO LACK OF WAA FORCING OVER THE GREEN MTNS

TIL LATER IN MORNING MONDAY. VALLEY LOCALES WILL SEE MAINLY RIAN

BUT SOME SNOW/SLEET MIX. THE EXPECTED TOTALS WILL PROBABLY WARRANT

ISSUANCE OF AT LEAST A WINTER WX ADVISORY BY END OF NEXT FORECAST

SHIFT. THIS EVENT WILL IMPACT MORNING COMMUTE FOR MONDAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

Zone forecast...

Sunday Night: Snow. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday: Rain and freezing rain. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Snow or rain showers likely. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Flurries on Mansfield.. we'll see what this weak wave does. Felt sort of misty earlier but now definitely all flakes.

Pretty amazing isothermal right now in the low levels...not sure I've ever seen it so close between the three stations. All three wetbulbs showing 29.7F.

3,615ft...30.5F

2,635ft...30.5F

1,550ft...30.1F

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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0.2" of snow/sleet at 1,550ft on elevated surfaces (such as a wooden snow board) and we have been going back and forth between pellets and snow, even some rain drops mixed in from time to time.

Right now it just switched over to massive aggregate flakes, but precip is very light. Looks a lot more impressive than it is just because of the large size of these glops of snow. At least the parking lots look white again, haha.

Current temps are all over the place...

3,600ft...30.6F

2,600ft...33.1F

1,800ft...34.0F

1,550ft...32.5F

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tamarack

tamarack

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Very light rain here and 34. Earlier there was the occasional IP mixed in, can't see any now. Probably no more than 0.02" precip, just a dark dank day.

GYX morning AFD and forecast has "light accum possible" for the foothills both overnight Sunday and again Monday before the changeover, so maybe the ground can get white again for another couple hr. The gfs pre-Christmas snowstorm is back on the 06z run. It comes and goes with almost every other run.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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May not be all snow...but at least its somewhat active...snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain back to snow...

EARLY MONDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR REMAINS

STUBBORN WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT THE RAIN/SNOW

INTERFACE. BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALL LOCATIONS WILL HAVE CHANGED OVER

TO RAIN. WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ENCOURAGE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND

EVEN PERHAPS A FEW 50S ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME

MESSY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.

THANKFULLY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR

SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. STILL...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE

COLD AIR MOVES IN...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX.

Hopefully next weekend brings a bigger storm.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Snow through December 8th last season at Burlington, VT- 7.7"

Snow this season through today this season at Burlington, VT- 4.3"

Hard to imagine we're doing worse (or better depending on your point of view) than last year...

Last year we got lucky with that storm the day before Thanksgiving... I remember getting like 8" or so out of that one in Stowe and I'm assuming that storm made up the bulk of BTV's 7.7" up to this date last year. But yes, still not doing that great.

For comparison... looking at my spreadsheets, for upper elevation snowfall I had 14" of snow (11" from the November 23rd event) last year at this time. This year I'm at over twice that at 35".

November was much, much better on the whole at the mountain than last year. Valleys its not much different... I think the Stowe 0.2sw CoCoRAHS observer is in the 9-10" range and last year was about identical thanks to that one event on November 23rd.

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Nittany88

Nittany88

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Last year we got lucky with that storm the day before Thanksgiving... I remember getting like 8" or so out of that one in Stowe and I'm assuming that storm made up the bulk of BTV's 7.7" up to this date last year. But yes, still not doing that great.

For comparison... looking at my spreadsheets, for upper elevation snowfall I had 14" of snow (11" from the November 23rd event) last year at this time. This year I'm at over twice that at 35".

November was much, much better on the whole at the mountain than last year. Valleys its not much different... I think the Stowe 0.2sw CoCoRAHS observer is in the 9-10" range and last year was about identical thanks to that one event on November 23rd.

Yeah that November 23rd event was actually the biggest event of the season at KBTV. 642 days since the last 6"+ snowfall!

mabg8y.png

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

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Wouldn't be surprised to see 1-4" over to 0.05-0.25" ZR by 15z Monday. 12z Nam is starting to pick up on CAD as it hold the sfc 32F isotherm in the NEK and northern NH 3 hours longer than other guidance.

Then, it tries to get NE VT, NH, and interior ME with 1-3" of snow on the backside.

PS- 12z Euro looks fugly.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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Snow through December 8th last season at Burlington, VT- 7.7"

Snow this season through today this season at Burlington, VT- 4.3"

Hard to imagine we're doing worse (or better depending on your point of view) than last year...

I made an assessment relative to average a few days ago, but I hadn’t thought of looking at how snowfall compared to last season:

Snow through December 8th last season at VT-WS-19 - 15.4"

Snow this season through today at VT-WS-19 – 8.0"

So we’re at 51.9% of last season’s snowfall through this date, very similar to Burlington’s progress (55.8%). I generated the usual plot showing this season (red) relative to the mean (green with 1 S.D. error bars) and previous seasons from my data set.

08DEC12A.jpg

It’s interesting to note that we’ve been at 30 to 40 inches of snowfall by this point in some seasons, which helps to make the current snowfall progress feel rather slow. We’re still just inside the 1 S.D. mark though, so this is nothing too aberrant yet. The snowfall hasn’t been as low as 2009-2010 was at this point (4.4”), but it is similar to the slow-starting 2006-2007 (10.0”). It certainly seems like there’s more potential for NNE snowfall as we move forward in the next couple of weeks, but there will need to be a lot done in the second half of the month if it is going to get near average – mean December snowfall is over 40 inches here based on my data.

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Nittany88

Nittany88

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I made an assessment relative to average a few days ago, but I hadn’t thought of looking at how snowfall compared to last season:

Snow through December 8th last season at VT-WS-19 - 15.4"

Snow this season through today at VT-WS-19 – 8.0"

So we’re at 51.9% of last season’s snowfall through this date, very similar to Burlington’s progress (55.8%). I generated the usual plot showing this season (red) relative to the mean (green with 1 S.D. error bars) and previous seasons from my data set.

08DEC12A.jpg

It’s interesting to note that we’ve been at 30 to 40 inches of snowfall by this point in some seasons, which helps to make the current snowfall progress feel rather slow. We’re still just inside the 1 S.D. mark though, so this is nothing too aberrant yet. The snowfall hasn’t been as low as 2009-2010 was at this point (4.4”), but it is similar to the slow-starting 2006-2007 (10.0”). It certainly seems like there’s more potential for NNE snowfall as we move forward in the next couple of weeks, but there will need to be a lot done in the second half of the month if it is going to get near average – mean December snowfall is over 40 inches here based on my data.

Great chart!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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A little cold air advection light snow this morning. A little dusting of white on some surfaces up above like 1,300ft. Cold air definitely taking its time to get into the lower elevations. It was snowing very lightly at home with 35F at 4:45am and up at 1,550ft it was snowing steady enough to dust the ground at 32F. Its 23F at 3,600ft.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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I just saw that the BTV NWS has Winter Weather Advisories posted for the CWA to cover the storm starting tonight. Point forecast here calls for 1-3” of snow/mix, and the advisory text and forecast discussions mention a general 1-2”.

09DEC12A.jpg

Looks like there is a signal for 1-2" on the back end of this system Monday night on every piece of guidance. Something to watch.

Indeed, like ctsnowstorm says, the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all appear to show some additional snow on the back side as well to varying degrees. I just grabbed a couple of the 06Z GFS plots off the WunderMap®, since they were the most robust example of the three, but there’s precipitation well after the 540 line and appropriate 850 mb temperatures have passed through the area. I believe adk has mentioned before that the mountains can get going with snow well before the thickness has dropped to 540 dam, so others may want to comment on that. I didn’t look at any other thicknesses or parameters, since usually when the cold air comes in on the back side of these systems, it’s consistently cold, but hopefully others will give their thoughts. The forecast discussion has the following for now with regard to tomorrow night:

GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM LIFTS N AND E OF THE REGION...CD AIR WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM WILL CHANGE REMAINING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. LIGHT ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER HIR ELEV. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR FAR NE VT...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR MID DECEMBER.

Anyway, storms with this sort of track are never optimal for snow, but at the same time it’s interesting to see just how much actual snow can be pulled out of them by the Greens, and how much liquid equivalent can be put into the snowpack. In any event it should be fun to watch how things transpire tonight and tomorrow night.

09DEC12B.jpg

09DEC12C.jpg

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

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Looks like there will be quite the gradient somewhere around my area tonight for no snow at all, and 3-4" of it.

I haven't looked yet today, but last nights 0z runs showed any 3+" amounts off in northern NH and the foothills of ME. you may have a CAD issue down your way with some decent ZR.

Looking over guidance with VTrans people later today.

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dendrite

dendrite

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I think it starts as snow here...hoping for an inch, but I can envision a quick changeover as upper level temps soar around H8-H75. The further N and E you go the more there will be. As usual RUM looks like a good place to be. I don't think we will have too many zr issues in the lower els in my area, but there may be some light glazing around 1k.

Tomorrow looks like another miserable day north of the boundary with fog, dz, and 30s while sne is in the 50s and 60s and sultry dews. We may not mix out until the cold fropa again. These events are usually snow pack preservers, but with nothing OTG I could go for some humid air to heal my dry skin.

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