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12/20-12/21 Moderate/Intense Clipper Event?


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Because this solution is way weaker with the ejecting wave, and that crappy wave interacts negatively with both the retrograding low and the east coast low. For now tossing it.

I will say that i have preferred to wait till the ejecting wave was out of the picture and thus the 12z runs tomorrow.

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I will say that i have preferred to wait till the ejecting wave was out of the picture and thus the 12z runs tomorrow.

Yeah we will definitely have to see. I should be careful and note this is a valid solution and a few ensemble members have weak solutions like this. GFS came in a lot faster with that ejecting wave and therefore we see the negative influence of both the CA low and the east coast low. I was thinking more in line with ECM which was a lot slower, and NAM trended slower. Flip flops will continue unfortunately.

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Funny, if this was severe weather season weather it would be, meh, water the garden. I guess when you live in LAF you take every inch of snow like it's your last.

:lol:

But snow is snow bro. We're nickel and diming our way to a nice December here. I'd take another 2-4" in a heartbeat.

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Personally i like the trend of the models. First thing is getting the east coast system to go out to sea and or keep moving along. They have been slowly trending that way. Next will be our system and for that see this from the GRR AM AFD..

.LONG TERM...(354 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2010)

(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.

THAT IS TIED TO HOW FAR NORTH THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THAT DRIVES THE

SNOW EVENT. AT ISSUE AS ALWAYS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT

STABLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THE ECMWF WAS NOT FORECASTING THE SYSTEM

AT ALL UNTIL TWO RUNS AGO. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING IT

BUT EACH RUN HAS A DIFFERENT TRACK FOR IT. ACTUALLY THOUGH...THE

ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE GFS SEEMS THE MOST STABLE AND I USED THAT AS MY

BASIS FOR THE LATEST GRID RENDITION.

OVERALL WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE ODDLY RETROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN

ACROSS CANADA THAT LEADS TO THE EJECTION OF A SHORTWAVE FROM A

CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT FOR THE MOST PART IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY

STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OK IT WIGGLES AROUND SOME BUT

REALLY MAKES LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND IN OREGON OR

WASHINGTON IN ALL THAT TIME). AT ISSUE FOR OUR SNOW EVENT FOR

TUESDAY IS JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS WAVE AS

IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SINCE

IT IS FORECAST TO HAVE A 150 KNOT JET CORE UNDERNEATH IT.... I HAVE

TO BELIEVE THIS COULD HAVE MORE PUNCH THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY

SHOW. SINCE THE SYSTEM THAT CREATES THIS STORM IS OFF SHORE YET...

AND WE KNOW THE MODELS DO NOT HANDEL THESE SYSTEMS ALL TOO WELL THAT

FAR OUR... DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST NEARLY AT ALL TODAY.

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the more i look at this potential storm, the more it reminds me of what we just had come thru here the last couple days.....the difference being that it manages to push a little more northeast than the last one. If this models stronger in upcoming runs, warm air could be an issue for many of us in IL, IN, and OH.

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120 Euro

A green penis? :lmao:

Seriously though, Im feeling fairly decent about the potential for here. Would be nice to freshen up the snowpack. Would be potentially a great base for a winterlong snowcover. Our avg depth is down to ~5" from the storm total of 6.3". Thats really not a lot of settling for 5 days after a snowstorm.

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Haven't been following this thread closely, but it looks like the GFS keeps flip flopping on strength, 6z looks solid. And maybe it's just me, but the NAM smell like rain down the road.

Cromartie says rain for you.

looks like another .5-1.5" in the cards.

You should try to poo poo this storm a little harder.

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I really like the look of this storm. Like GRR said, that strong of an upper level jet should help spawn at least a moderate snow event. Yes, the amplitude of the pacific wave and amount of confluence/blocking across the Great Lakes are still in question, but still, I'm liking at least a swath of advisory snows (maybe low end warning) somewhere across our region. :popcorn:

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I really like the look of this storm. Like GRR said, that strong of an upper level jet should help spawn at least a moderate snow event. Yes, the amplitude of the pacific wave and amount of confluence/blocking across the Great Lakes are still in question, but still, I'm liking at least a swath of advisory snows (maybe low end warning) somewhere across our region. :popcorn:

This.. :thumbsup:

With the recent trends with the Atlantic system i am beginning to like our odds alot. That should allow the system as well ( besides having a stronger system itself ) to stay on a more easterly direction vs dropping ese/se into KY etc as we have been seeing recently.

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