andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 18z runs looking more weaker for the northern target on Saturday, IMO. Yeah, stronger further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Well, I mean judging by the 18z NAM's parameters, I'd think we'd see some fairly beefy numbers even on the old thresholds. Meh honestly I just can't get excited about the setup. I think I've had to deal with too many crapvection days in the fall. I agree there is potential, but I'm not going to get excited as a chaser until I'm actually looking at it. So many chasers are getting worked up and excited that I have a feeling Friday/Saturday will become the most hated setup in a long time if it busts. I've been through enough fall setups down here in Texas to know not to buy a steak before you see the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Yeah, stronger further south. Will be interesting to see if this is just an off hour anomaly for the American models or if they really are just starting to fall in line with the Euro solution. Would be interesting considering the GFS has been the most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Also, lol what does Reed think EHI is? https://twitter.com/...8/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Also, lol what does Reed think EHI is? https://twitter.com/...8/photo/1/large I saw that... someone put together a graphic way too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 EHIs in the hundreds...damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Meh honestly I just can't get excited about the setup. I think I've had to deal with too many crapvection days in the fall. I agree there is potential, but I'm not going to get excited as a chaser until I'm actually looking at it. So many chasers are getting worked up and excited that I have a feeling Friday/Saturday will become the most hated setup in a long time if it busts. I've been through enough fall setups down here in Texas to know not to buy a steak before you see the storm. You can definitely sense that it's been quiet for a long time. Positives only (x100) from many. Both days seem to have a high chance of frustration... but at least it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The low is starting to spawn convection in southern NV. It begins! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 You can definitely sense that it's been quiet for a long time. Positives only (x100) from many. Both days seem to have a high chance of frustration... but at least it's something. Well it's not in the Northeast, so that's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The low is starting to spawn convection in southern NV. It begins! lol There was a t'storm warning near San Jose earlier tho it was moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Well it's not in the Northeast, so that's a start. I've found some of the most outspoken chasers (the 18 year olds with Facebook fan pages etc) are not the best forecasters from a few days out. Tho they find tornadoes so maybe they know more then they let on. Plus, I probably focus on the negatives more than I should sometimes (or often). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I've found some of the most outspoken chasers (the 18 year olds with Facebook fan pages etc) are not the best forecasters from a few days out. Tho they find tornadoes so maybe they know more then they let on. Plus, I probably focus on the negatives more than I should sometimes (or often). I was 18 years old at one point and would of shot myself if I ever made a fan page or added "wx chaser" or "tornado chaser" as my middle name. How idiotic. Most of them just want attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I was 18 years old at one point and would of shot myself if I ever made a fan page or added "wx chaser" or "tornado chaser" as my middle name. How idiotic. Most of them just want attention. What makes it funnier is Kevin Martin lending them his "expertise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 What makes it funnier is Kevin Martin lending them his "expertise". I wonder how his lawsuit of TWC is going, since he said he came up with the idea to name winter storms first, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The low is starting to spawn convection in southern NV. It begins! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 If we do end up with something closer to the 18z GFS, my bottom line from last night goes out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 If we do end up with something closer to the 18z GFS, my bottom line from last night goes out the window. In regard to which point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 If we do end up with something closer to the 18z GFS, my bottom line from last night goes out the window. OT: Hope you're enjoying UAH! Just returned from there this weekend, was visiting my girlfriend who goes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 In regard to which point? The biggest tornado threat being overnight Friday. With the GFS, there's a shot that it becomes Saturday afternoon in KS/OK. Also, I really am beginning to doubt much severe threat at all say N of I-70. More later if this headache doesn't knock me out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 You can definitely sense that it's been quiet for a long time. Positives only (x100) from many. Both days seem to have a high chance of frustration... but at least it's something. Aint that the truth...lol. Imagine how I feel...before getting promoted to Texas I spent 15 months in the Bering Sea. I enjoyed it there...and admittedly have a lil chase withdrawl....but not too much seeing I work in a convective area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The biggest tornado threat being overnight Friday. With the GFS, there's a shot that it becomes Saturday afternoon in KS/OK. Also, I really am beginning to doubt much severe threat at all say N of I-70. More later if this headache doesn't knock me out first. I think it's too early to really call anything, considering that was one run from what has been a very consistent GFS with this storm. Also, it was an 18z run so take it with a grain of salt, if we continue to see the GFS come more in line with the euro, then i agree with your points above. If we see something similar to what the GFS has been advertising then IA/MO/NE are still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 I'm hoping even with the new parameters (LCLs at or below 1500M and MLCAPE at/above 500 J/Kg) that maxing out the Sig. Tornado ingredients scale means something good for Friday. wowsers...if that forecast holds ture...I'll be burning a few hours leave so I can get on the road by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Aint that the truth...lol. Imagine how I feel...before getting promoted to Texas I spent 15 months in the Bering Sea. I enjoyed it there...and admittedly have a lil chase withdrawl....but not too much seeing I work in a convective area. Just ask Mike Johnson how much there has been to chase around San Angelo in the past few years. Oh, can't forget his feelings about the DYX radar. They're in a love-hate relationship... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Aint that the truth...lol. Imagine how I feel...before getting promoted to Texas I spent 15 months in the Bering Sea. I enjoyed it there...and admittedly have a lil chase withdrawl....but not too much seeing I work in a convective area. Crab fisherman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I think it's too early to really call anything, considering that was one run from what has been a very consistent GFS with this storm. Also, it was an 18z run so take it with a grain of salt, if we continue to see the GFS come more in line with the euro, then i agree with your points above. If we see something similar to what the GFS has been advertising then IA/MO/NE are still in play. I really don't think IA/MO/NE are in play. I'm just having flashbacks to three chase days we had while I was at Valpo that all suffered due to the veering LLJ and the advection of post-dryline or post-frontal air at 850mb over the warm sector. It's caca for severe. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on me for not catching on the second time. I won't be fooled a fourth time. Also, you can't just discount an 18z run. Their verification scores aren't quite as high as a 00z/12z run, but they're not massively lower either. As an aside, I really love it down here. It's a great program and Huntsville is a hidden gem of the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 I think it's too early to really call anything, considering that was one run from what has been a very consistent GFS with this storm. Also, it was an 18z run so take it with a grain of salt, if we continue to see the GFS come more in line with the euro, then i agree with your points above. If we see something similar to what the GFS has been advertising then IA/MO/NE are still in play. Agreed...until it gets sampled by the upper air network...I have the same approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Just ask Mike Johnson how much there has been to chase around San Angelo in the past few years. Oh, can't forget his feelings about the DYX radar. They're in a love-hate relationship... Ohhh yeah...Mike and I have had that discussion aboyt DYX. All of us in the office have. I suggested we start a pool on how many times a fiscal quarter it goes down. I picked 66. It's ALWAYS THE SAME ISSUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I really don't think IA/MO/NE are in play. I'm just having flashbacks to three chase days we had while I was at Valpo that all suffered due to the veering LLJ and the advection of post-dryline or post-frontal air at 850mb over the warm sector. It's caca for severe. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on me for not catching on the second time. I won't be fooled a fourth time. Also, you can't just discount an 18z run. Their verification scores aren't quite as high as a 00z/12z run, but they're not massively lower either. As an aside, I really love it down here. It's a great program and Huntsville is a hidden gem of the U.S. I disagree about counting locations out at this point, it's to early. We gotta wait till the system is sampled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I disagree about counting locations out at this point, it's to early. We gotta wait till the system is sampled The problem with IA/NE/MO isn't so much the low, though. It's the orientation and strength of the ridge to the east, which impacts the path of the low and, as a result, the 850mb flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The problem with IA/NE/MO isn't so much the low, though. It's the orientation and strength of the ridge to the east, which impacts the path of the low and, as a result, the 850mb flow. I don't understand the veering of the LLJ, can you explain that too me? Something to do with a SW flow at 850 mb advecting dry air into the warm sector from behind the dryline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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