Chicago Storm Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 40kft+ storm with some cg's moving through...Decent for late Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's supposed to be 81 here Thursday. I'll probably have to use A/C too. I'm not going to be tossing and turning in a pool of sweat at night. That lower sun angle beats right through all the windows this time of the year. It will probably be 80+ in the house for sure, especially if it's sunny. Yeah when it's 70 this time of year it feels so much hotter than say June. That Sun absolutely is beaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good amount of fog out this direction at the moment. Dense fog here tonight! 0.58" of rain for Monday - not too bad. 0.25 mile visibility - if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Dense fog in Madison, visibility is easily less than 1/8th of a mile. I can't see Lake Mendota even though I live on the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 2.13" here last night. Quite the surprise given the reports from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 TWC/WSI going warmer than normal for November, December, and January. Sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Starting to rain and stuck at 55 °F, what a dreary morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 TWC/WSI going warmer than normal for November, December, and January. Sounds good to me! The next time I trust TWC's long range forecasts will be the first. They had a climate change program awhile back called the Climate Code, showing they don't hide their views on the issue. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This warm spell looks to potentially underachieve. Stuck at 53F right now with fog and low clouds, highs have backed off from low 70s to 67, and I don't know if we'll get past the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 TWC/WSI going warmer than normal for November, December, and January. Sounds good to me! Seems like we have another Tropical on this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This warm spell looks to potentially underachieve. Stuck at 53F right now with fog and low clouds, highs have backed off from low 70s to 67, and I don't know if we'll get past the mid 60s. Yup I could definitely see that being the case at least for today. Warm front is still stuck near WI/IL border and with the potential for rain and onshore flow, only areas I could see making it near 70 are out near Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hmmm...6z GFS looks awfully mild after early next week...850s really rebound for the entire extended...winter start cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 TWC/WSI going warmer than normal for November, December, and January. Sounds good to me! Sup Ytterbum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 1.10" through 11:00am today. 4.88" now for October at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Anyone have an opinion on TWC's forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Anyone have an opinion on TWC's forecast? Climate change induced and a forecast for persistence from last winter for sure. Unfortunate, but not overly surprising for TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Some scattered t'storms developing between Beaver Dam and Rockford, with stratus, and mist/light showers elsewhere in the area. I told everyone who asked that today would be a slight chance of a shower or storm, but looks like that forecast was off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Climate change induced and a forecast for persistence from last winter for sure. Unfortunate, but not overly surprising for TWC. I noticed that Environment Canada just blankets the majority of the northern hemisphere in "Above Normal" and calls it a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 After last year, I pretty much lost all faith in any forecast more then 3 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No rain to speak of here... 1.59" for the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Local news was saying 78F today...huh? Sitting at 59F with fog/drizzle or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No rain to speak of here... 1.59" for the month... Hopefully we can send some NW up your way soon, you deserve it. I'd like to think you have a good chance tomorrow and Thursday to finally see a nice soaking rain with some embedded t'storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Anyone have an opinion on TWC's forecast? They are really weighting in the global warming factor. Probably still going with in IPCC failed temperature trend graph. They couldn't have been more off for this month. For today, temperatures going to to the chopping block... Only 55-56° here with fog and drizzle. Had some downpours this morning with more threatening to move in from the WSW. LOT saying the warm front may not clear until late tonight sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 They are really weighting in the global warming factor. Probably still going with in IPCC failed temperature trend graph. They couldn't have been more off for this month. For today, temperatures going to to the chopping block... Only 55-56° here with fog and drizzle. Had some downpours this morning with more threatening to move in from the WSW. LOT saying the warm front may not clear until late tonight sometime. I thought it was along the WI/IL border as we speak? Even with the drizzle/low clouds, temps are rising here, though rather slowly, so I think the warm air is advecting as we type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I thought it was along the WI/IL border as we speak? Even with the drizzle/low clouds, temps are rising here, though rather slowly, so I think the warm air is advecting as we type. Winds are onshore still. The stratus and showers are going to hang around a lot longer than forecast. LOT saying low 60s in this area with no chance of sun. Can't imagine getting much warmer in Milwaukee County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Winds are onshore still. The stratus and showers are going to hang around a lot longer than forecast. LOT saying low 60s in this area with no chance of sun. Can't imagine getting much warmer in Milwaukee County! Yeah, I saw LOT expected highs in the low to mid 60s with their new update, with MKX expecting highs in the mid to upper 60s this morning. I get the feeling those thoughts have since changed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 They are really weighting in the global warming factor. Probably still going with in IPCC failed temperature trend graph. They couldn't have been more off for this month. For today, temperatures going to to the chopping block... Only 55-56° here with fog and drizzle. Had some downpours this morning with more threatening to move in from the WSW. LOT saying the warm front may not clear until late tonight sometime. The last 3 months have been forecasted above normal and they have been slightly below or normal... So anyhow, lets hope they are wrong. I googled the TWC forecast and got a totally different one then this video... The video on the TWC site is much more moderate than what I found earlier, almost as if it was toned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 They are really weighting in the global warming factor. Probably still going with in IPCC failed temperature trend graph. They couldn't have been more off for this month. For today, temperatures going to to the chopping block... Only 55-56° here with fog and drizzle. Had some downpours this morning with more threatening to move in from the WSW. LOT saying the warm front may not clear until late tonight sometime. Here's the link to the TWC/WSI long-range forecast: http://www.weather.c...utlook-20121022. There is no mention of global warming in the discussion. ========================================================================================================= While climate models have been indicating a transition from La Nina to El Nino conditions, the impacts from El Nino are expected to be minimal. "It is now clear that the previously expected El Nino event is dead on arrival heading into the winter season," said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. "We do not expect any of the 'classic' El Nino weather impacts in the US this winter." (MORE: What is El Nino? | What is La Nina?) Dr. Crawford further explains that the winter outlook more closely resembles a La Nina winter, "with the coldest temperatures across the northwestern half of the country and a generally mild winter across much of the eastern US. We expect that the strongest signal this winter will be for cold Alaskan high pressure to direct cold Arctic air southward into western Canada and the northwestern US, with warmer southerly flow in control over much of the eastern US." Keeping an Eye on the NAO In addition to the swing from La Nina to El Nino conditions, meteorologists also keep an eye on theNorth Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for clues about the impending winter. A strongly negative phase of the NAO corresponds to a strong "Greenland Block", which brings bitterly cold temperatures to the eastern states. Recently, the NAO was negative during the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, winters during which numerous snowstorms crippled parts of the country. (MORE: Winter's Most Iconic Images 2010-2012) Conversely, a positive phase of the NAO corresponds to above average temperatures and mild conditions throughout the nation. (MORE: 4th Warmest Winter on Record) Regarding November 2012 through January 2013, Dr. Crawford says "recent climate model forecasts and statistical predictors generally suggest that Atlantic blocking will be the exception rather than the rule this upcoming winter, and we feel that the odds are tilted towards another mild winter across much of the eastern US." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Here's the link to the TWC/WSI long-range forecast: http://www.weather.c...utlook-20121022. There is no mention of global warming in the discussion. ========================================================================================================= While climate models have been indicating a transition from La Nina to El Nino conditions, the impacts from El Nino are expected to be minimal. "It is now clear that the previously expected El Nino event is dead on arrival heading into the winter season," said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. "We do not expect any of the 'classic' El Nino weather impacts in the US this winter." (MORE: What is El Nino? | What is La Nina?) Dr. Crawford further explains that the winter outlook more closely resembles a La Nina winter, "with the coldest temperatures across the northwestern half of the country and a generally mild winter across much of the eastern US. We expect that the strongest signal this winter will be for cold Alaskan high pressure to direct cold Arctic air southward into western Canada and the northwestern US, with warmer southerly flow in control over much of the eastern US." Keeping an Eye on the NAO In addition to the swing from La Nina to El Nino conditions, meteorologists also keep an eye on theNorth Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for clues about the impending winter. A strongly negative phase of the NAO corresponds to a strong "Greenland Block", which brings bitterly cold temperatures to the eastern states. Recently, the NAO was negative during the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, winters during which numerous snowstorms crippled parts of the country. (MORE: Winter's Most Iconic Images 2010-2012) Conversely, a positive phase of the NAO corresponds to above average temperatures and mild conditions throughout the nation. (MORE: 4th Warmest Winter on Record) Regarding November 2012 through January 2013, Dr. Crawford says "recent climate model forecasts and statistical predictors generally suggest that Atlantic blocking will be the exception rather than the rule this upcoming winter, and we feel that the odds are tilted towards another mild winter across much of the eastern US." That was my personal thoughts behind it. From listening to local forecasters and ideas on this forum - I believe blocking will be the rule rather then the exception this winter. We have neutral conditions, not La Niña conditions. The pattern this autumn is quite different from last autumn and I think it will lead to a quite different early winter period. * I guess towards late winter/March, a La Niña pattern could evolve if the ONI index continues to slide. --- Getting some thunderstorms here now! Absolutely pouring outside. Stuck at 57°. Edit: Wow, I haven't seen it rain like this since that storm around July 11th! C-G strikes all over the place. Both sump pumps have been running non-stop for 10minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That was my personal thoughts behind it. From listening to local forecasters and ideas on this forum - I believe blocking will be the rule rather then the exception this winter. We have neutral conditions, not La Niña conditions. The pattern this autumn is quite different from last autumn and I think it will lead to a quite different early winter period. --- Getting some thunderstorms here now! Absolutely pouring outside. Stuck at 57°. Same here. A pretty good thunderstorm with torrential rain is moving through. Power surge for some reason near the onset of the heaviest rain and thunder in just one room of the house. Probably just coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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