CT Rain Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Looking at the 9z SREF and some of the 12z suite there is a narrow window for severe ahead of the next shortwave approaching from the west. At this point I sort of like the I-88 corridor in NY south toward NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Meh..too late in the day for SNE unless NAM timing is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Meh..too late in the day for SNE unless NAM timing is right Yeah it will be hard to get stuff in here unless things speed up. Worth watching though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 This has nothing to do with the northeast, but check out that wicked vortmax moving down near ORD and then into BUF. Could bring a line of nasty low topped storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 This has nothing to do with the northeast, but check out that wicked vortmax moving down near ORD and then into BUF. Could bring a line of nasty low topped storms. Yeah no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Once again going to have some timing issues to contend with as well as other issues but right now this does seem to favor more of PA/NY than southern New England. However, the past few events we have seen timing speed by by several hours as we got closer to the event so something to keep an eye on with this system. Another potent early season system though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Not sure whether this deserves it's own thread, although some of us are in or near yet another day 3 slight risk. Nam is a lot faster with the Saturday frontal passage than 00z. Maybe it reaches CT while there's still remnant instability? In this case the LLJ does not look to be as strong as the past few events, but there should still be a good amount of directional shear and the U/L winds will be ripping pretty good. It's hard to expect anything around here but the same ol' NY/EPA/NWNJ/SW CT favored spots might pull something and the trend is at least in the right direction. This might not actually be a bad thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I think I saw SIG TOR probabilities showing up. The ST ingredients I believe maxed at 10% on the 9z SREF mean. Weatherwiz and I were talking about it a couple nights ago but I didn't have the strength since we just finished up Tuesday's convection. it sure does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 15z SPC SREF has it as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 latest sref even more amped on sig tor with 20% over E NY. not sure how much to buy it verbatim tho. instability looks iffy up into that core. would perhaps lean se ny/ne pa/n nj for better risk. looks like it's going to be linear anyway.. could just be wasted parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Hi Ian...thanks for posting. Do sit look at leanest run. Do it tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Posting from phone sucks. Should say didn't look at latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 latest sref even more amped on sig tor with 20% over E NY. not sure how much to buy it verbatim tho. instability looks iffy up into that core. would perhaps lean se ny/ne pa/n nj for better risk. looks like it's going to be linear anyway.. could just be wasted parameters. Lapse rates from 0-1.5 KM look really good, though, and the SB CAPE looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 KMSV sounding valid 18z, Saturday. Which is Monticello, NY or Sullivan County International Airport. 0-1 km helicity could be a bit higher but considering the 850mb to 700mb lapse rates and ML CAPE is not too bad, the updraft can actually rise above the 1 km layer and maybe utilize the better 0-3 km helicity for a few tornadoes? 700mb to 500mb lapse rates are putrid, but I'm hoping the okay 850mb to 700mb can be enough to make up for that. And as stated before, 0-1.5 km lapse rates are excellent. And the higher tops might mean more downward transport for a stronger downdraft as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Maybe we can hold the storms together into Ct for at least some damaging gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Maybe we can hold the storms together into Ct for at least some damaging gusts? Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Maybe we can hold the storms together into Ct for at least some damaging gusts? Meh. This thread is deceiving should be in the NY subforum. Thought maybe it was a SNE threat when I first looked at it,sort of like starting a 10-16 snow thread for Massena NY here. Convection fetishes, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 This thread is deceiving should be in the NY subforum. Thought maybe it was a SNE threat when I first looked at it,sort of like starting a 10-16 snow thread for Massena NY here. Convection fetishes, meh Slight risk almost to the river. There will be at least some severe into WCT and W Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Slight risk almost to the river. There will be at least some severe into WCT and W Mass Don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Don't worry about it. Well for convection tolland is western new England. Once late blooming miller bs begin its eastern ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Well for convection tolland is western new England. Once late blooming miller bs begin its eastern ne. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Well for convection tolland is western new England. Once late blooming miller bs begin its eastern ne. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Don't worry about it. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 What? Severe anywhere near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Severe anywhere near you. we're talking about storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 we're talking about storms Those will struggle too as they move into your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 upton has it b/w 2-3 AM here...so hard to see how there's much to get excited about here unless something pops for someone in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Looks like the NY border becomes a brick wall. Tornado parameters are pretty impressive across E NY, but they have a tough time getting into western MA/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 The quest to hit 80 tomorrow is more exciting than a garden variety thundershower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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