Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 As Ian mentioned earlier, short term trends should not be representative of the overall motion, and slight wobbles are very typical of a Tropical Cyclone. What should be interesting though is if this wobble turns into a trend. this is a good loop to use for longer-term track http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/isaac12/Isaac_28-29Aug12_LIXlong.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 this is a good loop to use for longer-term track http://andrew.rsmas....g12_LIXlong.gif I'm not ready to say we have a direction change, but that loop does show a "wobble" to the west during the past 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The Western jog is becoming more apparnant on radar, almost as if the Isaac had a mind of it's own. Off hand I can not recall a similar scenario with a landfalling Hurricane in the United States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'm not ready to say we have a direction change, but that loop does show a "wobble" to the west during the past 45 minutes. Yeah I agree tho I'm not really sure it makes much difference whether it's sitting just offshore or over the marshes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Is the West side of the storm starting to fall apart on radar? Can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Yeah I agree tho I'm not really sure it makes much difference whether it's sitting just offshore or over the marshes. True, but it would bring more locations in SE LA onto the on-shore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Weather channel saying it may have made land fall already and is on its way to make a secound land fall they say a hurricane hunter will determine if it made its first landfall and when.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Lake Pontchartrain is now rising very rapidly, with roughly 4 feet of surge so far. http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8761927+New+Canal%2C+LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Still impressive to see a cyclone strength at all so close to the coast while moving so slowly. Both those usually work against intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Fresh update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Weather channel saying it may have made land fall already and is on its way to make a secound land fall they say a hurricane hunter will determine if it made its first landfall and when.. I don't believe they need a HH to determine LF at this point with radar at a moment's point and click inside the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 True, but it would bring more locations in SE LA onto the on-shore flow. Yeah that's also true. My guess is it'll make another step north at some point soonish tho maybe that band wrapping on the north will try to pull it west a bit more. Got me... but it's taking on more and more 'land' either way unless it moves due west or southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 not bad by the HRRR, it looks like it's just a couple clicks south, looking like this could stay over water for a extended period of time IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Is the West side of the storm starting to fall apart on radar? Can't really tell. Appears that way, but the Eastern side is intensifying, could be wrapping itself up at last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 last few radar frames suggesst dry air intrusion on the NW side. Considering Isaac's history and flow coming over land, really not too suprising to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Damage is pretty much done at this point...a super slow moving large cat 1 with a prolonged period of surge into the NO area is on deck...the eastern quadrant piling into that area looks damn healthy and should at least maintain that intensity over the next 6-12 hours. I don't see how NO avoids a high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I summarized my thoughts about Isaac for today on my blog, focusing mostly on the surge: http://weather.schematical.com/ Complex interaction continuing between that attempted inner eyewall and the outer eyewall/band, looks like the outer eyewall is trying to absorb the inner one to me. Wouldn't focus too hard on center locations with that going on, overall this is going NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 not bad by the HRRR, it looks like it's just a couple clicks south, looking like this could stay over water for a extended period of time IMO the center looks a decent bit south on the hrrr compared to actual at least eyeballing. i'd hope it's 2 hr forecast wouldn't be too far off either way... i don't see how it's going to strengthen much more but it sure could stay fairly steady for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Still impressive to see a cyclone strength at all so close to the coast while moving so slowly. Both those usually work against intensification A couple of days ago when Isaac's track was still somewhat uncertain I posted a link on the banter thread to the following 13th August PNAS paper (edited by Kerry Emanuel): Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification National Geographic (among others) ran an article on the findings: Hurricanes can get supercharged when they hit river mouths, researchers now find [...] Although the chances that hurricanes will hit regions swamped by freshwater is small at only 10 to 23 percent, the effect can be startlingly large—hurricanes can become up to 50 percent more intense in regions where freshwater pours into the ocean, such as from river systems like the Ganges, or where tropical storms rain considerably, as in the western Pacific Ocean. "Our study finds that when hurricanes pass over oceans covered by freshwater from rivers, such as the Amazon and Mississippi River, and rain, they can really intensify rapidly," Balaguru said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It would appear they are not counting that little extension on the map as landfall--looks like the center crossed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The image is somewhat blurry but this looks like it's already showing flooding in Metairie, on the southern shore of the Lake? http://www.thecauseway.us/causeway_new2/tps_traffic_cameras.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The weather channel wasn't sure if they were going to count it as its first landfall or not... Not looking good on the last couple of radar loops looks like the west side is drying up quick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It would appear they are not counting that little extension on the map as landfall--looks like the center crossed it. It would be hard to imagine that extension actually existing at this moment. It is likely underwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Dry air is clearly gotten back into the core, should stop further intensification for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It would be hard to imagine that extension actually existing at this moment. It is likely underwater. Yeah. It could be the actual center stayed south of there too. Kinda hard to tell on radar exactly other than that little inner blowup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 No thats because of the convection wrapping around the north quad is prob causing some weak subsidence. It will fill in when it rotates around The weather channel wasn't sure if they were going to count it as its first landfall or not... Not looking good on the last couple of radar loops looks like the west side is drying up quick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HURRICANE ISAAC MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN PLAQUEMINES PARISH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 645 PM CDT... 2345 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 New Orleans is about to get walloped by that band--it'll be interesting to see how the water levels in Lake Pontchartrain respond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Lake Pontchartrain is now rising very rapidly, with roughly 4 feet of surge so far. http://tidesonline.n...7 New Canal, LA Re: flood stage for Lake P (from Wikipedia): In 2007, the United States Army Corps of Engineers published results from a year long study intended primarily to determine the canal's "safe water level" for the 2007 hurricane season. The Corps of Engineers divided the 4.8 miles (7.7 km) of walls and levee into 36 sections to analyze just how much storm surge each can withstand. It found that only two sections, those closest to Pump Station No. 6 and on the high ground of Metairie Ridge, can hold more than 13 feet (4.0 m) of water. Many other sections of walls and levees can't be counted on to contain more than 7 feet (2.1 m) of water.[9] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 New Orleans is about to get hammered, flooding rain threat will begin with this band and winds will get way higher based on the obs upstream in Shell Beach, nearly hurricane force gusts out there and the worst part of the band isnt even at Shell Beach yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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