Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Ex-Helene remnant trof


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 332
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I don't like how TD7's remnants are causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes.

I posted this locally about an hour ago. So it wasn't unexpected...;)

HPC:

FINAL...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ADDING A SPOT LOW APPROACHING BROWNSVILLE...TEXAS...DAYS 6 AND 7...AS PER COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IS INTENDED TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN THE MOST PRACTICAL SENSE...ADDS SUPPORT FOR INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION IN THE MOIST FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was just staring at CIMSS loops of vorticity, and the apparent Eastern piece of low-mid level vorticity associated with the corpse of TD #7 actually developed over Colombia and was pulled up into the Caribbean by the corpse of TD #7. As you (Jorge) mentioned yesterday, this may not go completely over Central America, and it appears part of it, and the most convectively active part at that, is staying at least partially offshore. In an area of CIMSS analyzed light shear, and favorable UL divergence/LL convergence.

But if something does develop in the Gulf, it will be from something that developed near, and was pulled into the Caribbean, by the corpse of TD #7, not the dead body of TD #7 itself, so it could easily be argued it would be TD #9, assuming they bother to upgrade 93L, which has unimpressive cloud tops but would otherwise seem to be at least a sub-tropical cyclone. GFS ensembles again have several members that generally support the op. Members #1 and #6 are especially "hawt" to look at over at the PSU e-Wall.

Yeah, but I think part of what was once TD 7 will get absorbed...still, probably TD #9 as you say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't like how TD7's remnants are causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes.

Sometimes folks take things too seriously.

Mid August and tension is building.

Not really hurtyhurtz, just my opinion of why this shouldn't be disregarded just yet. :hug:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not really hurtyhurtz, just my opinion of why this shouldn't be disregarded just yet. :hug:

:lol:

I was talking about teasing Steve and the other board...

I'm all good with pumping the prospects of Ex TD 7/Invest/Reinvest into something. However I am getting a bit miffed with this stretch of anything remotely being interesting having a bulls eye down S of the border.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not purely the corpse of TD 7 or nearby energy, but all the globals seem to like something incredibly unimpressive on the NE Mexican coast.

The Canadian has the least ennui. Purists may lift their noses at a potential minimal tropical storm, but if it rains on the lawn at some stage (and the decaying front seems likely to do some of that) I shan't complain.

post-138-0-57203700-1345119306_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Never seen recon tasked for something that has a 10% probability on the NHC outlook.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0930 AM EDT THU 16 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN

FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--

A. 17/2000Z

B. AFXXX 0207A INVEST

C. 17/1715Z

D. 20.8N 96.5W

E. 17/1930Z TO 17/2230Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Never seen recon tasked for something that has a 10% probability on the NHC outlook.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0930 AM EDT THU 16 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN

FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--

A. 17/2000Z

B. AFXXX 0207A INVEST

C. 17/1715Z

D. 20.8N 96.5W

E. 17/1930Z TO 17/2230Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Easily cancelled tomorrow morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a whole lot of changes via the 12Z operational GFS regarding a developing tropical system in or near the Western Gulf. What is a tad different is the rainfall and a slow creep inland with each run of that model. Some of the totals suggested by the GFS are nearing the 15 inch mark along the NE Mexico/S Texas Gulf Coastal waters and 5-10 inches along the Middle Texas Coast offshore. Inland totals are less as suggested by the GFS, but that model has shifted some better moisture inland and a robust 700mb level along the US 59 Corridor. That said there appears to be abundant deep tropical moisture available and various meso features that cannot be identified or model at this range will be the major fly in the ointment. As we know, tropical downpours are capable of dumping a lot of rainfall very quickly and that may well be the theme as we head toward the late weekend/early to mid next week timeframe.

The 12Z Euro has come rather similar to what the 00Z run suggested. That model tries to develop a weak surface low near Tampico and slowly moves the 850mb vorticity N along the Mexican Gulf Coast. It is also note worthy that the Euro remains rather aggressive suggesting the frontal boundary will move offshore before stalling and retreating back N near hour 168 as a weak broad surface reflection meanders near Brownsville.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a whole lot of changes via the 12Z operational GFS regarding a developing tropical system in or near the Western Gulf. What is a tad different is the rainfall and a slow creep inland with each run of that model. Some of the totals suggested by the GFS are nearing the 15 inch mark along the NE Mexico/S Texas Gulf Coastal waters and 5-10 inches along the Middle Texas Coast offshore. Inland totals are less as suggested by the GFS, but that model has shifted some better moisture inland and a robust 700mb level along the US 59 Corridor. That said there appears to be abundant deep tropical moisture available and various meso features that cannot be identified or model at this range will be the major fly in the ointment. As we know, tropical downpours are capable of dumping a lot of rainfall very quickly and that may well be the theme as we head toward the late weekend/early to mid next week timeframe.

The 12Z Euro has come rather similar to what the 00Z run suggested. That model tries to develop a weak surface low near Tampico and slowly moves the 850mb vorticity N along the Mexican Gulf Coast. It is also note worthy that the Euro remains rather aggressive suggesting the frontal boundary will move offshore before stalling and retreating back N near hour 168 as a weak broad surface reflection meanders near Brownsville.

Ultimately this becomes an intensity issue I think. At any point during the next 96-120 hours if this system becomes stronger and develops a mid-level vortex earlier than expected by the global models, it will be brought eastward by the mid-level southwesterly flow and brought inland along the northern Gulf Coast. Right now the models are threading the needle with the track because the feature just hangs along the coastline and does not ever become a robust cyclone. We saw a similar problem with Debby earlier this year where the system was very large and developed a well defined mid-level vortex after a large burst of convection. This allowed the system to be captured by the mid-latitude trough and swept eastward while the ECMWF was forecasting the mid-level vortex to develop more slowly and thus didn't get it picked up by the trough.

Ultimately I think the solution the current global models are providing are probably not going to pan out. Either the system pulls farther inland than expected and dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico, or is brought much farther east over the Gulf of Mexico in the medium range. The main societal impact at this time is increased rainfall across both Mexico and Texas, perhaps substantially so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ultimately this becomes an intensity issue I think. At any point during the next 96-120 hours if this system becomes stronger and develops a mid-level vortex earlier than expected by the global models, it will be brought eastward by the mid-level southwesterly flow and brought inland along the northern Gulf Coast. Right now the models are threading the needle with the track because the feature just hangs along the coastline and does not ever become a robust cyclone. We saw a similar problem with Debby earlier this year where the system was very large and developed a well defined mid-level vortex after a large burst of convection. This allowed the system to be captured by the mid-latitude trough and swept eastward while the ECMWF was forecasting the mid-level vortex to develop more slowly and thus didn't get it picked up by the trough.

Ultimately I think the solution the current global models are providing are probably not going to pan out. Either the system pulls farther inland than expected and dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico, or is brought much farther east over the Gulf of Mexico in the medium range. The main societal impact at this time is increased rainfall across both Mexico and Texas, perhaps substantially so.

Phil, c'mon-- you can't dangle that out there Re: a N-Gulf impact without sharing your thoughts Re: what it would be when it gets there. Out with it, please. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ultimately this becomes an intensity issue I think. At any point during the next 96-120 hours if this system becomes stronger and develops a mid-level vortex earlier than expected by the global models, it will be brought eastward by the mid-level southwesterly flow and brought inland along the northern Gulf Coast. Right now the models are threading the needle with the track because the feature just hangs along the coastline and does not ever become a robust cyclone. We saw a similar problem with Debby earlier this year where the system was very large and developed a well defined mid-level vortex after a large burst of convection. This allowed the system to be captured by the mid-latitude trough and swept eastward while the ECMWF was forecasting the mid-level vortex to develop more slowly and thus didn't get it picked up by the trough.

Ultimately I think the solution the current global models are providing are probably not going to pan out. Either the system pulls farther inland than expected and dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico, or is brought much farther east over the Gulf of Mexico in the medium range. The main societal impact at this time is increased rainfall across both Mexico and Texas, perhaps substantially so.

Just eyeballing the visible loop this afternoon, the low/mid-level vorticity seems to be stronger than suggested by the 12z GFS. With the convection in that vicinity, it will be interesting to see if things develop faster than the large-scale guidance suggests.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just eyeballing the visible loop this afternoon, the low/mid-level vorticity seems to be stronger than suggested by the 12z GFS. With the convection in that vicinity, it will be interesting to see if things develop faster than the large-scale guidance suggests.

There's a distinct mid level low now, probably stronger at 700mb looking at the CIMSS products, and it may be building down, as low level clouds seem to be trying to converge where the low is. It's pretty compact (Lorenzo-like?). It's also quicker than guidance would suggest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phil, c'mon-- you can't dangle that out there Re: a N-Gulf impact without sharing your thoughts Re: what it would be when it gets there. Out with it, please. :D

Well there are several other complicating factors, including a frontal boundary that interacts with the vorticity from the disturbance and higher shear that is associated with the digging trough in the North Gulf of Mexico. When I say stronger, I am really implying more vertically deep. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be a well organized system, as Debby was a vertically deep cyclone (for part of its life anyway) despite being very disorganized. With that said, the door is open for a more substancial system than currently projected in the modeling.

zy23s.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a distinct mid level low now, probably stronger at 700mb looking at the CIMSS products, and it may be building down, as low level clouds seem to be trying to converge where the low is. It's pretty compact (Lorenzo-like?). It's also quicker than guidance would suggest.

An LLC is pretty obviously re-forming well out (relative to the previous NHC init points) in the Bay of Campeche, which changes everything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a distinct mid level low now, probably stronger at 700mb looking at the CIMSS products, and it may be building down, as low level clouds seem to be trying to converge where the low is. It's pretty compact (Lorenzo-like?). It's also quicker than guidance would suggest.

Anyone remember marco?

29ekaia.gif

Yea it looks like the mid-level vortex is working its way down to the surface. The ECMWF captured this well in the 12z run, and it should be near shore by tomorrow afternoon. Not much time for development.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...