Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 #winning You should quit your job and move to SPC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 You should quit your job and move to SPC! That would take some fancy resume work Forum time= PhD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 That would take some fancy resume work Forum time= PhD? Maybe you could be the public information person/consultant given your CWG experience. I've always cringed when local media goes on the air and says there's a "slight" risk. The outlooks aren't for public use IMO - they are for forecasters and the word "slight" is super misleading. It took me 6 years to hammer into my parents minds that "slight" does not necessarily mean that severe is very unlikely to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Maybe you could be the public information person/consultant given your CWG experience. I've always cringed when local media goes on the air and says there's a "slight" risk. The outlooks aren't for public use IMO - they are for forecasters and the word "slight" is super misleading. It took me 6 years to hammer into my parents minds that "slight" does not necessarily mean that severe is very unlikely to occur. If jobs like that exist within noaa would certainly consider.. thinking of exiting the policy world already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Moar rain plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 If jobs like that exist within noaa would certainly consider.. thinking of exiting the policy world already. You'd certainly do well in a position like that. I'm sure a few here and there exist - but I'd guess they are few and far between. The disconnect between NWS and it's branches and the media can be really frustrating. Especially in a time when everyone wants to be an armchair weather forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Maybe you could be the public information person/consultant given your CWG experience. I've always cringed when local media goes on the air and says there's a "slight" risk. The outlooks aren't for public use IMO - they are for forecasters and the word "slight" is super misleading. It took me 6 years to hammer into my parents minds that "slight" does not necessarily mean that severe is very unlikely to occur. So now I'm curious... What does "slight" actually mean then? Honest question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 So now I'm curious... What does "slight" actually mean then? Honest question! Here's a link to a good read from SPC - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html It's all in the probability forecasting when compared to climo. I suppose this formula is fine for the forecasters who understand - but the general public really doesn't understand this type of forecasting. I have to explain to people that moderate risk days are very significant and that you seldom see probs of over 45% in this area. People don't understand that the risk means "within 25 miles of a point" - So when there is a risk for severe and their neighborhood doesn't experience anything, they assume the forecast was incorrect. In reality, the forecast meant something closer to: "there is a 45% chance of a severe hail report occurring within 25 miles of a point" - So while that person didn't experience the event, a person 15 miles away might have had a perfectly verified report of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Mid level clouds on the increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 NAM keeps hammering WV tomorrow with a complex that develops in the midwest/oh valley. Wants to drop it south of here mainly but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Super quick glance at the NAM shows two interesting things. 1) Decent timing on frontal passage tomorrow (early afternoon), 2) 100° on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Here's a link to a good read from SPC - http://www.spc.noaa....botlk_info.html It's all in the probability forecasting when compared to climo. I suppose this formula is fine for the forecasters who understand - but the general public really doesn't understand this type of forecasting. I have to explain to people that moderate risk days are very significant and that you seldom see probs of over 45% in this area. People don't understand that the risk means "within 25 miles of a point" - So when there is a risk for severe and their neighborhood doesn't experience anything, they assume the forecast was incorrect. In reality, the forecast meant something closer to: "there is a 45% chance of a severe hail report occurring within 25 miles of a point" - So while that person didn't experience the event, a person 15 miles away might have had a perfectly verified report of severe. Thanks. The other big thing that was interesting to me is that isolated pulse-type storms aren't part of those forecasts - just "organized severe weather." Also, I thought it interesting - and sensible - to have the differences among SLGT, MDT, and HIGH risks associated with TORN, WIND, and HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 5% tor up north now ...VT/NY/ERN AND CENTRAL PA... THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NY/ERN AND CENTRAL PA WHERE FULL SUNSHINE IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL HELP YIELD EARLY AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY 18Z OVER THIS REGION AND SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT THIS AREA AFTER DARK...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. PRESENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN REPEAT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT. ...OH/WRN PA/WV/ERN KY... INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF OH/WRN PA/WV/KY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AFTER LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND HEATING ENSUES. THIS REGION IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL YIELD FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. ...VA/NC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF VA/NC AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND BL MIXING DEEPENS. FORCING MECHANISMS ARE WEAK IN THIS REGION...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Super quick glance at the NAM shows two interesting things. 1) Decent timing on frontal passage tomorrow (early afternoon), 2) 100° on Thursday I like how the current day 2 outlook like avoids the LWX CWA like it's the plague :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 I like how the current day 2 outlook like avoids the LWX CWA like it's the plague :| kinda matches the nam.. blows the complex into WV then redevelops it over VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 5% tor up north now A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY AFFECT THIS AREA AFTER DARK...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. PRESENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN REPEAT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT. I enjoy this part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Thank goodness for this unexpected cloudiness. Hopefully, it can hold on for a few more hours. Wonder when the last time we pulled off 4 days in a row of negative departures in July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Thank goodness for this unexpected cloudiness. Hopefully, it can hold on for a few more hours. Wonder when the last time we pulled off 4 days in a row of negative departures in July? Already positive departures at DCA/BWI. Would need a storm and accompanying cool down to put up another minus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Storms? Later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Already positive departures at DCA/BWI. Would need a storm and accompanying cool down to put up another minus. Too bad. Temp only 82 out here; we still have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Later? Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Yay? I hope so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I hope so? Me too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Me too? Sorry, was being a bit of a butthead with the rhetorical responses Anyway, I certainly hope we get storms. I enjoy the heavy duty storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Sorry, was being a bit of a butthead with the rhetorical responses Anyway, I certainly hope we get storms. I enjoy the heavy duty storms Well Ian hasnt said meh yet, so I have hope we see something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 So there is an MD out for watch unlikely to our south... an STW just issued to our NE (well, NE PA ) and a new one to our west into WV that talks about SSE moving sups possible with large hail and an isolated tor possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 So there is an MD out for watch unlikely to our south... an STW just issued to our NE (well, NE PA ) and a new one to our west into WV that talks about SSE moving sups possible with large hail and an isolated tor possible Yep, I'm watching those coming SE out of central Ohio..nothing too exciting yet. A broken showerery line passed through here around lunch time. It did nothing but raise the DP a little. DPs are pretty high now. It feels like you could slice the air with a knife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Dave as in DT that is... throwing out derecho for tomorrow for W VA and VA on his FB page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 dont love the clouds but we're doing OK at the surface. gotta see how things fire up still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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