Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Overstatement of the year. Clearly you don't remember the sinkhole incident less than two years ago. I understand your point, though. That was some event! Sinkholes usually don't appear/form with this local geology! Getting quite dark here with thunder. New storms firing ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 65 bank clock downtown with patchy sun. Instability should be more than enough if we can get enough convergence to set things off later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Raining like crazy here! Thunder has decreased. Cooled off to 52°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 sitting at 63/54 at home with a almost due south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 not sure how legit but http://twitter.com/#!/jnelsonweather/status/179258340998774784/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 not sure how legit but http://twitter.com/#...8774784/photo/1 saw that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 not sure how legit but http://twitter.com/#...8774784/photo/1 If I lived there thats 4" added on to my season snow total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 not sure how legit but http://twitter.com/#...8774784/photo/1 Nice. Looks like it's right next to a building, so that probably piled up from a lot of it falling off a roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Nice. Looks like it's right next to a building, so that probably piled up from a lot of it falling off a roof. that's what i was thinking. Either way, these freezing levels are clearly allowing for some decent hail production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 that's what i was thinking. Either way, these freezing levels are clearly allowing for some decent hail production. Yeah, I'm kinda surprised the spc is only going with 15% hail risk. Maybe they're thinking most of the hail won't be at severe sizes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 If I lived there thats 4" added on to my season snow total No, it's just the most devastating ice storm of all time! That is, if it accumulated on the sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 DTX aviation update still pretty bleak sounding AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 133 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... FIRST WAVE OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO SOUTHERN MI. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS BELOW 1000FT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY AFTER ISSUANCE. ATTENTION TURNS TO LATER THIS EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SE MI BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. GENERAL TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z (MBS) TO 05Z (DTW/DET). POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST MBS/FNT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO DIURNAL INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE STATE ON TUESDAY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY LATE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 HRRR is keeping the next round well north of here, more or less over this mornings action. Radar/Sat trends lending some confidence to this possbility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Izzi update... FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED VORT LOBE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS PIVOTING AROUND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. SECOND VORT LOBE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EAST ACROSS IOWA AT THIS TIME WITH RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OGLE AND LEE COUNTIES LIKELY THE RESULT OF THIS VORT. THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING NOW IS DOING SO IN AN AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE HEADING THIS AFTERNOON. RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY (SBCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) COUPLED WITH STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS...BUT STILL DOES APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 DTX aviation update still pretty bleak sounding AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 133 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... FIRST WAVE OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO SOUTHERN MI. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS BELOW 1000FT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY AFTER ISSUANCE. ATTENTION TURNS TO LATER THIS EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SE MI BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. GENERAL TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z (MBS) TO 05Z (DTW/DET). POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST MBS/FNT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO DIURNAL INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE STATE ON TUESDAY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY LATE MORNING. Not going to say busted Slight Risk for us yet but with no Sun with 100 miles of SE MI it sure does look bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Not going to say busted Slight Risk for us yet but with no Sun with 100 miles of SE MI it sure does look bleak. Take a look at the visible satellite. Maybe another half hour to an hour of clouds. It wont take much, maybe a few hours of sun, to destabilize enough to get sufficient instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Not going to say busted Slight Risk for us yet but with no Sun with 100 miles of SE MI it sure does look bleak. Just broke out into filtered warm sun in Troy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Watch that cell in DeKalb County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Take a look at the visible satellite. Maybe another half hour to an hour of clouds. It wont take much, maybe a few hours of sun, to destabilize enough to get sufficient instability. I did. While it is getting better. The path of the clouds is all the way to the SWMI/IN boarder for MBY. Sorry I have been burned too many times by lack of sun to have any excitement for this event. I know dynamics can rule. Hopefully they do. It is March though so another strike is the sun angle is not the best yet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Just broke out into filtered warm sun in Troy Put a severe tstorm watch up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Watch that cell in DeKalb County. no fancy radar here but looks like it may have weak rotation. I know we have a few posters out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Storm on top of Muskegon right now! I think the severe threat is over in this area. Cool and cloudy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Storm on top of Muskegon right now! I think the severe threat is over in this area. Cool and cloudy now. Storm there looks quite nasty on radar. Down here in K-Zoo, it's in the Mid-60s with dew points making it to near 60. Clearing is on the way and is clearing from the south of Kalamazoo and will eventually overtake all of Kalamazoo & Battle Creek. Watch to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Now that some of the mid-high level clouds are beginning to thin you can see a nice boundary on visible showing up from near I-80 near Princeton northeast towards the storms around Sycamore. Think that line near Sycamore will zipper southwest a bit over the next 1-2hrs. Aurora, Morris, Joliet, and maybe back towards Ottawa are areas that could be impacted down the line. All this would eventually mature and impact areas of northwest Indiana later on. This area is right on the nose of the best cape/theta-e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 The line moving through NE IL is just rain, no thunder this time around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Put a severe tstorm watch up... I think conditions may warrant a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 DTX FOR TONIGHT...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WE CAN ACHIEVE. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF WIDESPREAD LIFT SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL IN PLACE AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE FAVORABLE WIND PARAMETERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KNOTS...BOTH 0-3KM AND 0-1 KN HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. LOOKING AT CAPE VALUES...THOUGH NAM MUCAPE IS ADVERTISED AT 800J/KG...NEITHER THE NAM OR RUC FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF SFC BASED CAPE WITH VALUES UP TO 100-200 J/KG WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIRES MODELS SHOW SOME ISOLATED CELLS TRYING TO GO UP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING THE FRONT ITSELF MAINLY FROM 23Z-05Z...WORKING SOUTH FROM MBS TO DTW. LOOKS LIKE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY RESULTS OF THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH IF WE CAN GET MORE SFC BASED INSTABILITY SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I think conditions may warrant a tornado watch. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Pretty dark off to my south/southeast. Obviously that Kenosha garden variety storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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