Coach McGuirk Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We had the hottest summer ever on the east coast. October and November had their days of record heat too. Now that December is here, winter really started to flex some muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 agreed after 105 degrees this summer it's hard to believe it can get/stay this cold down here in the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Consider myself very not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Consider myself very not surprised What do you think for January and February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What do you think for January and February? Jan: Torch. Feb: Toss-up... ending slightly on the warmer side. Here's my maps from early Oct: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 we need snow soon or we might have to wait till march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 we need snow soon or we might have to wait till march That was basically what I was thinking Official Call for DCA:5-8" snowstorm by the end of December. Two 1-2" snowfalls in Jan-Feb Possible event of 2-4" in March. Total snowfall: 9-16" (or 7-12" if the March storm doesn't pan out) FWIW... My March forecast is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 we need snow soon or we might have to wait till march Chill we will get 2 inches Thursday and 8 inches from the weekend storm. I have no knowledge nor meteorological basis for that but i have a feeling in my bones. Hey it probably has a better chance of being right than all of Dave's theories . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 we need snow soon or we might have to wait till march I imagine a poor January and February but we get a good March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If the blocking continues to be the way it has been, it may change the story come JAN/FEB/MAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The blocking is amazing. It's been so cold for so long that waterways are beginning to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Jan: Torch. Feb: Toss-up... ending slightly on the warmer side. Here's my maps from early Oct: wow nice,you nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We had the hottest summer ever on the east coast. October and November had their days of record heat too. Now that December is here, winter really started to flex some muscles. Im shocked to hell its been snowing all night here. Mother Nature >>> Mets who think they can predict the weather (no offense to anyone here lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 we need snow soon or we might have to wait till march maybe not looks like the Euro wants to hold the block over Canada for a while http://www.accuweath...nto-january.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 wow nice,you nailed it Still have half the month left though I don't think it will change too much. My November was pretty bad because I didn't get the timing of the pattern change right... brought the cold east/warm southwest pattern in too early. maybe not looks like the Euro wants to hold the block over Canada for a while http://www.accuweath...nto-january.asp Euro monthlies from last month were showing warm anomalies throughout the CONUS, with a netural/negative Pac NW for both Jan and Feb. The new monthlies come out tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Jan: Torch. Here's my maps from early Oct: Nice call so far. Was your Dec anamoly call based on Nina climatology or blocking? (or both). So, what are your thoughts about the big Jan torch represented on your maps if the blocking persists thru the 10th or 12th like progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 we need snow soon or we might have to wait till march Or winter 2011/2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Nice call so far. Was your Dec anamoly call based on Nina climatology or blocking? (or both). So, what are your thoughts about the big Jan torch represented on your maps if the blocking persists thru the 10th or 12th like progged? More details (though there aren't really many) can be found here: http://madusweather.com/?p=250 The tl;dr version of my forecast is it's a combo. of Nina climo. and forecasted NAO values. A more persistent blocking pattern would certainly cause problems in the eastern half of the U.S., but my forecast only calls for a neutral NAO in Jan anyway, so I'm not that concerned as of yet if we can ease the intensity of the block. My biggest concern is the amount of heat I have over the Northwest and Northern Plains... I have cooled it down a good amount (though still above normal) in updates I've made since that forecast, but it's still the area that can bust the biggest IMO. The subtropical ridge is certainly TRYING to push further east... hopefully the pattern shift will take place early enough to give me the big +anoms that I need. --- The ECMWF weeklies from last week are trending towards a neutral to slightly below normal area of temp. anomalies in the eastern U.S. during the first week of January, but it doesn't look nearly as persistent as the cold pool over western Canada fills in with aboves and the GOA low weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I am rather surprised by the aggressiveness of the cold and wind since the begining of Dec. November really gave no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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