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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread


Trent

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Here are some more "reality" shots that put this winter/record 80+ weather in perspective

I took this picture of Lake Erie on March 20th, 2010, completely iced over still for several miles along the shore:

4462649629_6fe9b37680.jpg

I took this picture of Lake Erie on March 27th, 2010:

4478122182_468a9680bc_z.jpg

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Frost and freeze warnings again tonight. Hopefully this is the last of them.

The only plant hit hard from the freeze earlier this week was my hydrangea's. Magnolia's around the neighborhood also browned.

Perhaps the low clouds will persist more than forecast (like they did today)?

A few Rhododendron's in my back yard in Chagrin aren't looking so good after the frost a few days ago. Oh well, they'll grow again as April and May progress.

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Dewpoints aren't terribly low, so if the clouds don't clear out we may hover above freezing. But things generally can drop pretty quickly once clearing takes place.

I'm thinking this may be the "longest" feeling spring in my life. It always seems in the past that you get buds on the trees, and then a few days later you wake up and every tree has leafed out. We've been in that partial leaf out mode for a week now and I'm sure it will continue for several weeks until the leaves decide to fully develop.

Oh and here was last March 30th, we are definitely a month ahead of schedule on the green up:

post-599-0-37940900-1333069673.jpg

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Oh and the Cleveland CRIB water temp at a depth of ~40 feet in Lake Erie is 44 degrees. Normal for this time of year is 37. Basically a month ahead of schedule. I wonder what effects this will have on the dead zones this year.

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Dewpoints aren't terribly low, so if the clouds don't clear out we may hover above freezing. But things generally can drop pretty quickly once clearing takes place.

I'm thinking this may be the "longest" feeling spring in my life. It always seems in the past that you get buds on the trees, and then a few days later you wake up and every tree has leafed out. We've been in that partial leaf out mode for a week now and I'm sure it will continue for several weeks until the leaves decide to fully develop.

Oh and here was last March 30th, we are definitely a month ahead of schedule on the green up:

Only dropped to 36 IMBY. Didn't see any frost this morning.

The cooler weather has slowed the leaf out. Should pick back up again starting today. I planted grass a few weeks back and it has already germinated and is growing. There haven't been too many, if any times I've been able to do that in March.

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12z Euro can't leave well enough alone...shows 48 hours of 850mb temps of -8C or colder with a NW flow in place starting at 192 hours...with lake temps generally ranging from +4C to +9C right now (and likely holding in that range over the next several days) the pattern shown would likely yield accumulating snowfall inland in that time frame.

post-525-0-18670400-1333398840.gif

This deep trough over the eastern 1/3rd of the US has been showing up off an on after the 10th of the month for the past several runs of the Euro. Ensemble support for the general idea is there on the 0z suite, but understandably the ensemble mean isn't nearly as amplified or cold in the end...

The GFS shows a cool down around D8 as well but is much more transient with it. Perhaps I should enjoy the weather we have now instead of dreaming about a white Tuesday after Easter :weenie:

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Models staying consistent in bringing cold air (850s of -6 to -8C being shown on the 12z GFS/NAM/ECM by 12z Wednesday) overhead with some shortwaves and moisture rotating in around the deep trough set to establish itself to our northeast Monday-Wednesday. Still plenty of time for details to be worked out but we will likely see flakes at times late Monday night through Wednesday with potential accumulations in the higher elevations overnight Tuesday night.

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OHZ011>014-021>023-033-089-PAZ001-100900-

CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-

MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-

455 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO

FALL TO AROUND THE FREEZING POINT SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

MAY TAKE PLACE. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW ACCUMULATION

COULD DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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OHZ011>014-021>023-033-089-PAZ001-100900-

CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-

MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-

455 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO

FALL TO AROUND THE FREEZING POINT SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

MAY TAKE PLACE. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW ACCUMULATION

COULD DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Looks like a few miserable days coming up... unless you like April rain/snow showers with cold winds.

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Looks like a few miserable days coming up... unless you like April rain/snow showers with cold winds.

Ehh, will be nice to get a break from the same old warm temps, sunny skies, with an ocasional thunderstorm/breif cool down and get some closure for this past winter :lol:

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Ok, I know, I know, it's April...

post-525-0-34217500-1334029659.png

Looking at the forecast skew-t's for Tuesday night and as a snow lover, I'm not minding what I'm seeing.

When factoring a lake water temp of 7C (which seems like a reasonable, possibly conservative average) inversions climb to nearly 15k feet between 6z and 12z Wednesday with a saturated column from the ground up. NAM temp profiles show wet-bulb freezing heights nearly down to lake level, although I think the warm NW flow off the lake will torch the low levels enough to keep precip rain or very wet snow. The dendrite growth zone is shown to be around 125mb deep late Tuesday night with steep lapse rates, instability and deep moisture within, so precip may be moderate and flakes will be of the large, wet variety. Given the short fetch and some low level shear I'm think higher elevations from eastern Cuyahoga/northern Summit Counties points east will see the heaviest precip rates with light rain along the lakeshore. Given the plenty cold air aloft and wet bulbs hovering near freezing areas above 1000' should easily see temps fall to near or just above freezing soon after dark Tuesday night, which will yield at the very least 6 to up to 12 hours of likely snow and temps cold enough for accumulations. 800-1000' will take longer to overcome the lake influence but should fall below 35 by 2am when the heaviest precip likely occurs. Lower down it will be mainly rain with some potential to mix in snow as the boundary layer warmth may be tough to scour out given the flow off the warm lake.

If temps weren't so marginal this would be a nice little event, but given temps likely not falling much below freezing I want to go with 1-3" of snow by Wednesday morning in the favored locales above 1000' on the east side...with 1" or less between 800 and 1000' and little to no accumulation below 800'. High res models are printing out around a quarter inch of liquid over the higher terrain Tuesday night which jives well with this estimate.

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Ok, I know, I know, it's April...

Looking at the forecast skew-t's for Tuesday night and as a snow lover, I'm not minding what I'm seeing.

When factoring a lake water temp of 7C (which seems like a reasonable, possibly conservative average) inversions climb to nearly 15k feet between 6z and 12z Wednesday with a saturated column from the ground up. NAM temp profiles show wet-bulb freezing heights nearly down to lake level, although I think the warm NW flow off the lake will torch the low levels enough to keep precip rain or very wet snow. The dendrite growth zone is shown to be around 125mb deep late Tuesday night with steep lapse rates, instability and deep moisture within, so precip may be moderate and flakes will be of the large, wet variety. Given the short fetch and some low level shear I'm think higher elevations from eastern Cuyahoga/northern Summit Counties points east will see the heaviest precip rates with light rain along the lakeshore. Given the plenty cold air aloft and wet bulbs hovering near freezing areas above 1000' should easily see temps fall to near or just above freezing soon after dark Tuesday night, which will yield at the very least 6 to up to 12 hours of likely snow and temps cold enough for accumulations. 800-1000' will take longer to overcome the lake influence but should fall below 35 by 2am when the heaviest precip likely occurs. Lower down it will be mainly rain with some potential to mix in snow as the boundary layer warmth may be tough to scour out given the flow off the warm lake.

If temps weren't so marginal this would be a nice little event, but given temps likely not falling much below freezing I want to go with 1-3" of snow by Wednesday morning in the favored locales above 1000' on the east side...with 1" or less between 800 and 1000' and little to no accumulation below 800'. High res models are printing out around a quarter inch of liquid over the higher terrain Tuesday night which jives well with this estimate.

It is snowing out in Chagrin right now. Lightly, but snowing nonetheless. 1-3" seems reasonable in the higher elevations. Was really hoping not to see the white stuff again until next winter. April is such a $hitty month.

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It is snowing out in Chagrin right now. Lightly, but snowing nonetheless. 1-3" seems reasonable in the higher elevations. Was really hoping not to see the white stuff again until next winter. April is such a $hitty month.

Ya. On the brightside we will be above normal again this weekend and it will be a quick shot.

Lol. CLE reporting - Snow Rain Small Hail/Snow Pellets Fog/Mist :axe:

Yes, that is tripping out my little weather icon on the forums here :lol:

There was a solid coating, at least a half inch to maybe more north of the Summit/Cuyahoga County boarder and the precip (mainly graupel) is coming down at a decent clip. At home a fast melting coating with just some light rain/snow falling right now.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The storm next week seems to be trending west and might give us some flakes. Any thoughts on this?

BY MONDAY MORNING ATTENTION TURNS TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL

DISTURBANCE INTENSIFIES SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC.

THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST

AND REMAIN OVER NEW YORK STATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL

HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLDER AIRMASS

SETTLING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...COMBINED WITH COLDER

AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ITSELF...WOULD ALLOW FOR THE

POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA SUNDAY

NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MENTION CHANCES OF RAIN AND

SNOW AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SNOWFALL...BUT

POSSIBILITY OF ONLY SNOW IS THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERN AREAS

FROM CLE-MFD WEST APPEAR TO SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IMPACT FROM

THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME REGARDING BOTH PRECIP AND TEMPS

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Right now the models really seem to be zeroing in on western PA into western NY as the potential jack-pot zone. The pattern really isn't that blocky so we will need a clean phase for the storm to be strong enough and far enough west to throw some snow west of the OH/PA boarder. I do think that if some of the more amped up GEFS/SREF/Euro ensemble solutions verify that a stripe of moderate snows is possible into northeast OH.

The SREF's show about a 60% chance of measurable precip from CLE-CAK points east on Monday...with a 35-45% chance of over .5" of QPF through 6z Tuesday, which seems reasonable. This one will be one to watch although the trend 12z was east a bit.

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I haven't been paying to the models so this storm is quite a surprise. Hopefully the heavier snows will be confined to the OH/PA border. Warm Lake Erie FTW.

We are about at 70% leaf out... although most the leaves are still small. Could be ugly for the fruit trees.

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