Trent Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 As the other thread has reached its post maximum, use this for continued Lake Effect discussion, general Northern Ohio winter weather, and any other winter storms that pop up for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 SPC clips southern Cleveland metro with 5% hail probs tonight...enjoy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 SPC clips southern Cleveland metro with 5% hail probs tonight...enjoy lol Hey, that counts as snow accumulation! Regarding lake effect, I'm liking this fetch. But it doesn't seem to form anything decent on this run until well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Hey, that counts as snow accumulation! Regarding lake effect, I'm liking this fetch. But it doesn't seem to form anything decent on this run until well inland. I think the current forecast for CLE for a few inches in the primary and secondary Snow Belts looks good... The forecast skew-t off the 18z NAM valid Saturday morning shows deep moisture and a deep cyclonic flow in place, and this is expected to be the case well into Saturday afternoon. The flow will be a bit fast but the flow will be W-WNW which will favor primary band formation. Although lake-850mb temp differencials are only progged to hover around -13C with 850mb temps of -10 to -12C Friday night-Saturday, which is boarderline for convective processes, inversions will be high at at or above 10k ft. This seems to favor a moderate lake effect snow event for a brief period, 18-24 hours starting late tomorrow evening, with localized 6"+ amounts possible in the primary belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Good idea starting a Northern Ohio thread. Glad we were out of the game on this storm... it would have been painful to be on the border then have the storm shift NW with a massive dry slot. I'm assuming this is for NW PA... but I was surprised to see CLE throw out totals near a foot. LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA STARTING AROUND 1 AM EST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH NEARLY A FOOT IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER SUCH A LONG PERIOD OF TIME THAT WE DONT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A WARNING AT THIS TIME. Lake, geauga and cuyahoga will get in the action as well... but no advisory? I'll take marginal 850's with deep moisture any day over dry arctic air. Precip amounts don't look overly impressive on the BUF WRF except for WNY. Perhaps the strong winds will limit band development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Good idea starting a Northern Ohio thread. Glad we were out of the game on this storm... it would have been painful to be on the border then have the storm shift NW with a massive dry slot. I'm assuming this is for NW PA... but I was surprised to see CLE throw out totals near a foot. LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA STARTING AROUND 1 AM EST TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH NEARLY A FOOT IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER SUCH A LONG PERIOD OF TIME THAT WE DONT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A WARNING AT THIS TIME. Lake, geauga and cuyahoga will get in the action as well... but no advisory? I'll take marginal 850's with deep moisture any day over dry arctic air. Precip amounts don't look overly impressive on the BUF WRF except for WNY. Perhaps the strong winds will limit band development. They will be issuing and advisory for Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula and Cuyahoga Counties at some point before 1pm tomorrow but don't know it yet. CLE just upgraded much of their CWA to a high wind warning...with a 50kt 850mb jet and a CAA regime, will be interesting to see how this verifies... We've definitely had the wind this winter, if we haven't necessarily had the cold and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Gusting to 54 mph at CLE and 51 at BKL. I can hear the joints in my building creaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Gusting to 54 mph at CLE and 51 at BKL. I can hear the joints in my building creaking. Winds are howling out there. Hopefully the winds calm down a bit so bands aren't disrupted too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Gusts have subsided into to 40-45MPH range most areas now...cloud cover should limit mixing and the 50-55MPH gusts most areas saw just behind the front should be the worst of it wind wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Intense burst of snow and wind with the front. Quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Intense burst of snow and wind with the front. Quite impressive. The gusts with that snow shower along the front might have approached 60...and evidently a lot of stuff can go flying at a BP gas station with a lot full of customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yeah. I had a laugh watching people down on street level try to fight the winds. Decent graupel like snow as it passed through. As we head into March, it's a lock that Lake Erie won't freeze. Just incredible that no shore ice formed this year and the western basin never came close to freezing solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yeah. I had a laugh watching people down on street level try to fight the winds. Decent graupel like snow as it passed through. As we head into March, it's a lock that Lake Erie won't freeze. Just incredible that no shore ice formed this year and the western basin never came close to freezing solid. I thought we were going to benefit from that at some point. Looks like the typical 1-4" LES event tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 I thought we were going to benefit from that at some point. Looks like the typical 1-4" LES event tonight and tomorrow. Had the pattern changed in mid to early February we could have salvaged a month to 6 weeks of winter. Lake Erie was primed. At this point, we'll continue to get coatings that melt in a few hours or get in on a 3" stripe that lasts a day or two. I'm glad we were saved the frustration of this storm. Plugging in the next 5 days easily makes this 4th warmest met winter. The overnight low average of 28.4 is second warmest. Looking forward to driving to Chardon Sunday to look at 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Snow has been falling heavily off an on. As expected, the heavier bursts are further inland. Looking upstream, there's a lot of moisture yet to move in. Could be a nice event in the higher, inland elevations tonight... OHweather special. As usual with strong winds, Trent and I will be forced to drive to see the heavier snow... except my drive will be shorter . Hopefully I'll be out in Geauga county for the epic winter of 2012/2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Snow has been falling heavily off an on. As expected, the heavier bursts are further inland. Looking upstream, there's a lot of moisture yet to move in. Could be a nice event in the higher, inland elevations tonight... OHweather special. As usual with strong winds, Trent and I will be forced to drive to see the heavier snow... except my drive will be shorter . Hopefully I'll be out in Geauga county for the epic winter of 2012/2013. Remember, I'm in the NE corner of Summit County now (it's a quarter mile drive to Portage County, about 2 miles to Geauga), but ya I'm thinking I'll see a few inches through tomorrow evening, with a swift WNW flow and a good amount of moisture in place into tomorrow afternoon. Have seen a few decent heavy bursts out here with a steady light-moderate snow since about 6pm...am already closing in on an inch. Assuming I get at least 3" on top of the 0.8" (just eyeballing) I've seen in the past 2 hours, my season total will crack 50"...at this time last year I was eying 100" and topped 120" in Solon for the snowiest winter since 04-05. The snow right now is not pure lake effect as lake-850mb temp differencials are less than -10C, but as synoptic moisture upstream continues to move over the lake tonight and 850mb temps do eventually cool to -11C to -12C which is the magic number given lake temps of +1 to +2, we should see snow continue and likely organize after midnight...still don't agree with no advisories in Ohio for this if NW PA has one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Just measured 2.0" on the dot...band over western Lake Erie which has a connection to Lake Michigan looks to be making a b-line towards northern Lorain, southern Cuyahoga, northeastern Medina/northern Summit and northern Portage Counties through 1-2am, will probably drop an additional 1-2"...I think I could see a total of over 6" here IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I really don't understand what they are looking at down at CLE that is convincing them that no one in Ohio will see the 4" in 12 hour or 6" in 24 hour advisory criteria...I have 2" down in Summit County and a band is rocking and rolling to my north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 2" here at the shoreline. That must mean that inland got dumped on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Great band over the lake pushing through the CLE area. Haven't been out to measure but eyeballing I'd say 3"+. Snow keeps coming in bursts. Looks like there are two distinct bands with the main band having an upstream connection. Definitely advisory worthy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Just drove from Burton to Chagrin Falls at 1:30 p.m. and around Newbury it was literally white out, 20 mph on Route 87 was the fastest we could go. I would guess about 4" here in Chagrin Falls with more east towards Burton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Great band over the lake pushing through the CLE area. Haven't been out to measure but eyeballing I'd say 3"+. Snow keeps coming in bursts. Looks like there are two distinct bands with the main band having an upstream connection. Definitely advisory worthy snow. Considering the parameters, not a bad event. Looks like some of the higher elevations of Geauga County did get a little over 8". This is definitely an unusual time of year for lake effect, and had the 850s been a little bit colder this could have been a bigger event. I was lucky in that there was a nice band that had extended from just about my neck of the woods out to the east. The totals here dropped off to almost a dusting just a mile or two south. I was out in University Heights earlier and there was at least 4". The snowfall rates were intense and had one band just sat in a localized spot some areas could have really cashed in. I took this long exposure shot as one of the bands slid through in the early morning hours. Shaker Square at lunch time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Considering the parameters, not a bad event. Looks like some of the higher elevations of Geauga County did get a little over 8". This is definitely an unusual time of year for lake effect, and had the 850s been a little bit colder this could have been a bigger event. I was lucky in that there was a nice band that had extended from just about my neck of the woods out to the east. The totals here dropped off to almost a dusting just a mile or two south. I was out in University Heights earlier and there was at least 4". The snowfall rates were intense and had one band just sat in a localized spot some areas could have really cashed in. I took this long exposure shot as one of the bands slid through in the early morning hours. Shaker Square at lunch time: Cool pics as always! It definitely felt like winter again today, for a day. 3.3" was the final tally here, 50" for the season will have to wait. After the torrid start (relatively speaking) last evening, the bands stayed farther north/east than I thought and Summit County missed out for the most part. Another light to moderate event to add to the tally, although some areas in Geauga and likely NW PA did exceed the 8" in 24 hour warning criteria. Not complaining as this may be the biggest "event" we see for a while to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Was nice to have "winter" for a day. Right back to spring today with bright blue skies and the drip of melting snow. The ground really didn't freeze much of this year. While the snow had no problem sticking yesterday, it started to melt from below at the same time. I expect to be able to mark zero as my snow depth by nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Was nice to have "winter" for a day. Right back to spring today with bright blue skies and the drip of melting snow. The ground really didn't freeze much of this year. While the snow had no problem sticking yesterday, it started to melt from below at the same time. I expect to be able to mark zero as my snow depth by nightfall. Not here...still a solid 2" but it will likely be gone by tomorrow evening. Even did some nice sledding today, although it was beginning to get muddy at the bottom of the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Was nice to have "winter" for a day. Right back to spring today with bright blue skies and the drip of melting snow. The ground really didn't freeze much of this year. While the snow had no problem sticking yesterday, it started to melt from below at the same time. I expect to be able to mark zero as my snow depth by nightfall. That has been one of the worst things about this winter. It has been non-stop mud season since Fall. Snow should be just about gone by the end of the day. Every snowfall this winter seemed to last a day or two afterward... then a warm up with rain. Almost time to turn the lights on this winter. I'm really hoping for a mild and dry Spring. The ground needs to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Since we appear to have some downtime , can someone talk about the April les storm a few years ago ? I'd be curious what the conditions were at that time that caused such a significant storm for us. How cold was the airmass ? How long did it stick around? Was it a multiple day event? Is there a nws write up about it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Since we appear to have some downtime , can someone talk about the April les storm a few years ago ? I'd be curious what the conditions were at that time that caused such a significant storm for us. How cold was the airmass ? How long did it stick around? Was it a multiple day event? Is there a nws write up about it ? Here is the NWS map for totals from the event: They do not have a write up on the event otherwise. Tuesday April 3, 2007, a shortwave began to dig over the Upper Plains, resulting in a low pressure tracking through the central lakes...temperatures soared into the upper 70s to near 80 that day! Some broken ice was still floating over the eastern basin of Lake Erie going into the 3rd of April, but that was torched by a hot April day, which set the stage for what happened shortly thereafter... By Wednesday the forth, cold air advection was occuring in earnest as the upper trough began to slow down and close off over the central Great Lakes. Deep moisture began to pivot back overhead by Wednesday evening, when the first accumulating snows began across northern Ohio. Moderate lake effect snows continued Wednesday night through Friday, with most Snow Belt locales having several inches on the ground by Friday. Friday April 6, 2007 was the imfamous home-opener snow out for the Cleveland Indians. Based on what they went on to do that season, perhaps our home-opening weekend should be completely snowed out more often. The climaxe of the event was likely Friday night through Sunday morning...as you can see above, shortwaves began pinwheeling around the upper low that was firmly anchored to our northeast on Friday. 850mb temperatures were consistently below -10C and at times dipped to -15C, which created extreme lake-induced instability. With shortwaves to enhance lift and deep mid level moisture in place, lake effect snow parameters were outstanding. Winds came out of a W-WNW direction Friday-Sunday, and a convergence band developed initially over Lorain, northeastern Medina, inland Cuyahoga, northern Portage/Summit and southern Geagua County with snow showers occuring outside of this area. In Solon, I recieved about a foot of snow Friday night into the morning of Saturday the 7th. The convergence band persisted through Sunday and gradually shifted north towards the Cleveland-Mayfield-Chardon corridor, where many areas woke up to a foot of new snow on Easter Sunday. Temperatures gradually warmed and ridging built in by Monday, when the final snow showers finally ended. A long duration, classic lake effect snow event that occured out of season. The pattern certainly supported a deep, slow moving upper low over the region with a sharp ridge out west and short, spring-like wavelegnths, which is a classic lake effect setup, sans the time of year: Here is a radar loop from 12am on April 7, 2007 through 11pm on April 7, 2007: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Likely more remarkabe, April 23-25, 2005...essentially, up to 2' of snow fell in a 36 hour period between Saturday evening (23rd) and Monday morning (25th)... Here are some totals from the CLE CWA, found in an old thread on Eastern. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SNOWFALL REPORTS...STORM TOTALS SINCE SAT 4/23 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 201 PM EDT MON APR 25 2005 NEW STORM TIME/DATE COMMENTS LOCATION SNOW TOTAL OHIO ...ASHTABULA... HARTSGROVE 8.5 0700 AM 04/25 ...CUYAHOGA... CLE AIRPORT 12.4 0700 AM 04/25 GARFIELD HTS 14.5 0700 AM 04/25 CLEVELAND 7.0 0700 AM 04/25 SHAKER HTS 14.0 0700 AM 04/25 PEPPER PIKE 15.9 0700 AM 04/25 SOLON 19.8 0700 AM 04/25 N.ROYLTN/BRDVW HTS 25.3 0700 AM 04/25 ...GEAUGA... BURTON 9.5 0700 AM 04/25 CHARDON TWP 17.5 0700 AM 04/25 THOMPSON 5SW 21.8 0700 AM 04/25 RUSSEL TWP 12.0 0700 AM 04/25 HAMBDEN TWP. 21.1 0700 AM 04/25 ...HOLMES... FRYBURG 3.0 0700 AM 04/25 ...HURON... NORWALK 8.0 0700 AM 04/25 ...LAKE... KIRTLAND 9.0 0700 AM 04/25 ...LORAIN... LAGRANGE 4.0 0700 AM 04/25 N RIDGEVILLE 7.0 0700 AM 04/25 CAMDEN-TWP 8.4 0700 AM 04/25 OBERLIN 6.1 0700 AM 04/25 ...MEDINA... HINCKLEY 10.4 0700 AM 04/25 CHIPPEWA LK 3.0 0700 AM 04/25 MEDINA 5.0 0700 AM 04/25 BRUNSWICK 14.5 0700 AM 04/25 ...PORTAGE... KENT 7.2 0700 AM 04/25 AURORA 9.9 0700 AM 04/25 ...RICHLAND... BELLVILLE 3NE 7.4 0700 AM 04/25 ...SUMMIT... MUNROE FALLS 5.5 0700 AM 04/25 TWINSBURG 11.5 0700 AM 04/25 ...WAYNE... WOOSTER 1.5 0700 AM 04/25 KIDRON 1N 6.7 0700 AM 04/25 A snapshot from 12z 4/24/05: The large view...note the ridging out west, again: Radar loop for 4/24/05 (this was essentially all snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 April 6-7, 2009 also deposited several inches across much of the Snow Belt...over 6" in Solon where I was living at the time...see some similarities in the patterns with these April snowstorms? April 7, 2009 radar loop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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