wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It's four days out, so it's about time to have a thread going for this threat. Probably not a high potential for a significant event, but a chance someone sees advisory level snows out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 BL is questionable once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 BL is questionable once again. That's def a problem that won't be going away. This time, I just hope it doesn't turn into suppressed crap once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I doubt it will be supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I doubt it will be supressed. this little turd before the potential big daddy? I wouldn't be so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I doubt it will be supressed. It looks like Minnesota will get some snow regardless with the frontal passage. Then, a low takes shape in the middle of the country on Monday. Right now, it's possible that low becomes suppressed and weaker as time goes on, given seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The 12z Euro looked better precip wise around and digging the trof further south but as Joe said, the BL temps aren't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Someone looks to get snow, but who is the question of the hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Someone looks to get snow, but who is the question of the hour! If I had a dollar for everytime I watched a set of model runs this winter 4+ days out and thought someone is gonna get snow and then not............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 this little turd before the potential big daddy? I wouldn't be so sure. Day 10 Big daddy threat is actually legit. I have been watching the medium range closely for a while. For weenie sake, 12Z ECMWF would be a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Day 10 Big daddy threat is actually legit. I have been watching the medium range closely for a while. For weenie sake, 12Z ECMWF would be a dream. Yes it has alot of potential. Quite the temperature gradient depicted by the 12z Euro. Only in a Winter like this will you have 2 decently strong HP anomalies in Quebec with the storm tracking thru the Northern Great Lakes lol . Any preliminary thoughts man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks borderline in these parts...could be a rain/snow mix around these parts. Heavy slop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Interesting, but as others have mentioned we look like we may have to deal with warm BL temps yet again. Hard to get too excited given the recent past. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 lol at the differences between the 0z runs of the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 0z GFS 81 hours: Marginal temperatures for snow in N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 0z GFS 81 hours: Marginal temperatures for snow in N IL. still too warm in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 still too warm in the low levels. Wunderground maps show a flip flop between snow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Wunderground maps show a flip flop between snow and rain. try checking some soundings.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Hard for me to get excited about this event. Even if the GFS solution pans out, the freezing level just looks a bit too high. There's probably the same problem on the 12z Euro but can't tell without soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 try checking some soundings.. What site can I access different soundings at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just another in a long series of systems that lack the normal cold BL conditions we would normally expect in WINTER. This has been the first winter I can remember when we have such a problem with marginal BL temps without the impedance of strong WAA, at the surface or aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS would be all rain even up here... this is just nuts. Its Feb and looking like rain. Could be decent for someone in MN... See if the Euro goes north with it on the 0z ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Active and cloudy. Sucks for greenhouses in Feb and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 GFS would be all rain even up here... this is just nuts. Its Feb and looking like rain. Could be decent for someone in MN... See if the Euro goes north with it on the 0z ... EURO keeps the storm in the same general area. Snow forms in MO and streaks towards Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 whole euro run was one big limp biscuit for most... congrats dakota's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 FWIW, the Euro on the wundermap shows a nice band of snow from central Illinois, through LAF/northern Indiana, and up into southeast Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What's the GFS showing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 What's the GFS showing??? Widespread light snow north of about I-80 in Iowa/IL. Heavier precip down near I-80/points south but BL warmer as you'd expect down here. It's arguable there could be a decent band of snow somewhere where the transition zone sets up. ATM east-central/southeast Iowa through northwest IL look okay on the NAM/GFS/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Latest NAM shows snow near I-80 and north. BL looks like it's overcome, compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah... I looked at the GFS...spits out some precip, most likely a wet snow (temps look right around freezing at the surface)... 1 to 3 inches? looks like another little turd snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.