aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not to be overly optimistic, but the SE trajectory of that banding in OH looks like it's heading straight for the metro It never pays to be overly optimistic here for snow but it does look like some more flakes should fall overnight....Euro bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It never pays to be overly optimistic here for snow but it does look like some more flakes should fall overnight....Euro bust CMC for president. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I think so...this stuff looks to head through DC as well...maybe the 0z NAM will be right...goodness you would think it could get a 12 hour forecast right..... the 0z nam spit out an underwhelming 0.02" qpf after 6z at DCA. so if it's right, we'll get some flurries/sprinkles inside the beltway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I just use 36-37 as general idea of going to snow as I don't think this setup supported a prolonged rain event if one could maintain that temp or lower based on my experience....If one looks at old metars which I do all the time we see that over and over in rain to snow events....obviously the 925-950mb layer is the one that actually matters, but 36-37 or lower usually suggests that that layer is there or getting there soon Yes...as long as there is no inversion (which you have stated many times) then its usually a pretty good temp to base a mix/changeover on. 36 seems to be a favorite number here when we are changing over in a a situation with no warm layers aloft. Realistically you want that 0C height getting below 950mb as the flakes have a hard time surviving more than 400 meters of above freezing air....but seeing 925-950mb on the models knowing mod/heavy precip will be around ensures that the 0C will continue to lower without aid of warm air advection which this type of event clearly lacked. So that's why its typically good to look for those wetbulb zero heights on the soundings when steady precip is around...it can kind of give a threshold for changeovers. Models generally don't lower those wetbulb heights fast enough in those setups. N and central MD saw this play out with more snow in the afternoon than models gave originally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 only in this winter would we get a 5H map like this and absolutely nothing to show for it http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F05%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 CMC for president. Silly....Canadians can't run for president Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Silly....Canadians can't run for president Zing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 the 0z nam spit out an underwhelming 0.02" qpf after 6z at DCA. so if it's right, we'll get some flurries/sprinkles inside the beltway... Yep...I was just thinking this batch right now looks to run through dc....everything is light overnight for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Coming down a bit harder now...flakes size growing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Weatherbug's are not always accurate...33 seems low to me based on surrounding obs, but maybe you were close....point is you were going to go to snow (you were already mixing) assuming we actually had more precip....I don't ever recall an event in mid winter where the column from 875-900 mb and up was below freezing and it was a prolonged synoptic rain event with temps in the mid 30s....and this event was no different.....nobody was going to get hour after hour of rain and 34 with this setup...I'm not saying anyone advanced that idea, but when it looked like more of a prolonged event into the overnight hours, anyone suggesting an all rain event with temps in the low to mid 30s would have busted It was my ob. There are plenty of events that have all rain when the first 100 mb are above freezing, anyone with a basic knowledge of atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud physics would agree. Snow doesn't usually fall though that deep of a warm layer especially in this case, with light to moderate rates in a saturated column. Yes it would had eventually changed over due to CAA, but the precip was over before the column was cool enough to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yep...I was just thinking this batch right now looks to run through dc....everything is light overnight for sure i wasn't saying nam is necessarily right... just that if it is, we're talking next to nothing. we want the nam to be wrong if this is going to overperform... the localized nature of these bands will be make this stuff overnight hard to model right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The radar has been weird this evening. Earlier we had light snow under no echo, and now, well out of the last echo, still snowing nicely with large flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 GFS looks like it's trying to set us up for something interesting day 6'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If it doesn't miss to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 i wasn't saying nam is necessarily right... just that if it is, we're talking next to nothing. we want the nam to be wrong if this is going to overperform... the localized nature of these bands will be make this stuff overnight hard to model right.... I'm with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was right....Day 6+ HM storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 If it doesn't miss to the south Sure looks like bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It was my ob. There are plenty of events that have all rain when the first 100 mb are above freezing, anyone with a basic knowledge of atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud physics would agree. Snow doesn't usually fall though that deep of a warm layer especially in this case, with light to moderate rates in a saturated column. Yes it would had eventually changed over due to CAA, but the precip was over before the column was cool enough to support it. cool...show me an example of a prolonged synoptic rain event in mid winter with surface temps in the mid 30s here that fits that criteria....I am certainly willing to be proven wrong.... and congrats on having the same temp as HGR when they were getting moderate snow and I was 5-10 miles to your south at 37-39.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was right....Day 6+ HM storm Geeze what a perfect damn setup 1039 high over the lakes, slp just east of ORF, whew.... Buy,buy,buy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Incoming 35/35 for me and you...I suspect Silver Spring might be in the upper teens by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 not much with that band....some rain/pixie mixed in with it....soooo...eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 cool...show me an example of a prolonged synoptic rain event in mid winter with surface temps in the mid 30s here that fits that criteria....I am certainly willing to be proven wrong.... and congrats on having the same temp as HGR when they were getting moderate snow and I was 5-10 miles to your south at 37-39.... Sure thing I'll dedicate the thread to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Geeze what a perfect damn setup 1039 high over the lakes, slp just east of ORF, whew.... Buy,buy,buy Wrong thread get out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was right....Day 6+ HM storm It's probably going to snow next weekend no matter what the GFS has to say now. The pattern looks ripe. Of course for Ian's sake, I'll wait until the CMC gets on board before I get too excited. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/35 for me and you...I suspect Silver Spring might be in the upper teens by now If I see 20 flakes this storm will become a success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 35/35 for me and you...I suspect Silver Spring might be in the upper teens by now I'm sorry you didn't get snow tonight and your "silver bullet" changeover temperature was a sham for DC. Sounds like thermodynamics > local knowledge > model soundings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wrong thread get out I didn't start talking about it, but I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I didn't start talking about it, but I understand. I was hoping others might take the hint too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I was hoping others might take the hint too How many have you had tonight? I'll bet this band brings you your 20 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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