JamieOber Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 About an inch here in shippensburg. Now my house in greencastle is under the gun. Just heavy heavy snow there. I thought I bookmarked your cam - what is it again? Want to watch it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 You're right, there are people with political agendas, but a few bad apples spoil the bunch. The majority of scientist aren't alarmist and try to get the data out there for the public. Data goes way back farther than the the 19th century, not necessarily alot of first hand accounts but ice core proxies and many more proxies. We know what the climate has done going back as far as some of the geologic eons, epochs, and eras. The thing is the climate has been warmer, way warmer. That isn't the point, the point is how we are warming and the rate at which we are warming isn't normal "geologically speaking" . I have taken a few climatology classes at Penn St. and we had the chance to see how the climate w as back millions of years ago by analysing some of the data sets. CO2 amounts were higher in geologic past, but they were naturally increased at normal rates over millions of years. The rate at which we are currently warming is alarming, and could have major implications for many species. The rate at which we are warming is due to the burning of fossil fuels, think about it. We are buring carbon and fossil fuels many times faster than it took to create it. Granite we are warming "only" .5 to 1C a century, but add that to a thousand years or longer time frame and that amount doesn't seem so tiny after all. These warming spells in the past occured over much greater time spans. Plus the whole argument about, "well places are seeing and increase in snowfall amounts" This is true to a certain extend, this is possible because in a warming planet there is an increased amount of water vapor so you will have more precipation that falls. Until the temperature threshold is crossed, places will still see snow and cold, but as global temperatures increase, the likelyhood or occurances will steadily decrease. Also I hear agruments about, " Well Alaska is seeing record cold temperatures" This is true and is likely a -3 standard deviation event, but in statistics with a positively increasing trend will see less of these -3 standard deviation events in the future. The statistic tail will increase towards the positive standard deviation events. You have any good reads on the above? Its an area that I never really had much interest in due to the political nature its become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I thought I bookmarked your cam - what is it again? Want to watch it snow. http://67.235.80.39:6969/ Enter user for username leave password blank. It is hammering there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 You have any good reads on the above? Its an area that I never really had much interest in due to the political nature its become. Yeah, the political stances taken by a few is a major disapointment. I mean it is a serious problem, but it isn't at the same time. The globe isn't likely to die off within the next couple hundred years, but if actions aren't taken within the next few generations, there could be some problems for certain species. We know CO2 is a greenhouse gas and it does warm the planet with increasing concentrations. The level is at 392ppm but a doubling of that to say near 800ppm could increase temps another 2-4F on top of what we have now. Plus if we do warm further and more methane does excape into the atmosphere from the tundra, that poses a much greater threat than CO2 as CH4 has 10x the warming effect than CO2, but thank goodness CH4 doesn't have the longivity of CO2 in the atmosphere. Alot of the forcing blackbody calculations come from Max Planck. Let me round up all the good sources that I know of and I will post them on here for you or others that are curious. I will try and have it by later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Yeah, the political stances taken by a few is a major disapointment. I mean it is a serious problem, but it isn't at the same time. The globe isn't likely to die off within the next couple hundred years, but if actions aren't taken within the next few generations, there could be some problems for certain species. We know CO2 is a greenhouse gas and it does warm the planet with increasing concentrations. The level is at 392ppm but a doubling of that to say near 800ppm could increase temps another 2-4F on top of what we have now. Plus if we do warm further and more methane does excape into the atmosphere from the tundra, that poses a much greater threat than CO2 as CH4 has 10x the warming effect than CO2, but thank goodness CH4 doesn't have the longivity of CO2 in the atmosphere. Alot of the forcing blackbody calculations come from Max Planck. Let me round up all the good sources that I know of and I will post them on here for you or others that are curious. I will try and have it by later tonight. lol no rush. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Great job on the website zack. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Great job on the website zack. Awesome! Thanks. Will be updating daily. I am going to try and make this into something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Well just showed it to like 10 guys here at lhu...all liked it and bookmarked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Well just showed it to like 10 guys here at lhu...all liked it and bookmarked! Awesome dude thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Heads up: Tornado Alley 3D is playing at the Whitaker Center in Harrisburg (it's IMAX). Sean Casey of Discovery's Storm Chasers was here doing a Q&A today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Radar to our west lighting up. Maybe another inch south of rt 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Heads up: Tornado Alley 3D is playing at the Whitaker Center in Harrisburg (it's IMAX). Sean Casey of Discovery's Storm Chasers was here doing a Q&A today. You know, I think Sean Casey is a whiney douche, but I'm interested to see the film. Thanks for the heads up. Oh, and no snow here at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 0z GFS tries to do something for the hallowed Feb 10-12 period. Seems like a pretty decent dig of the northern branch but the southern energy is pretty indecisive. Some of it escapes early in the form of a frontrunning wave that goes off the Fla/Ga coast harmlessly while the rest is a hanging a bit behind and just doesn't get totally picked up in time. Does manage to deliver some light precip to most of PA but thats about it. The pieces are going to be there for a sizeable storm this time next week, whether things link up is a different story...and we aren't going to know the outcome of that with any realistic certainty for awhile. Will say that this is one of those patterns where if a decent storm decides to happen, it might not really show itself til late in the game and perhaps suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't care about the snow, the problem is it hasn't been cold much at all. We've had in total probably around 5 days of below-freezing highs. This is true. I don't really remember too many winters where the local lakes and ponds were completely ice free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 That lil event yesterday was quite the overachiever.. oh wait thats 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yesterday's system was pretty well modeled: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1106 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 THE FOLLOWING ARE 24-HOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THANK YOU TO OUR COOP OBSERVERS...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND THE COCORAHS NETWORK FOR THESE REPORTS. **********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT PENNSYLVANIA ...BEDFORD COUNTY... 3 WNW SCHELLSBURG 5.0 745 AM 2/05 COCORAHS 3 SW EVERETT 3.7 700 AM 2/05 COCORAHS WOLFSBURG 3.0 800 AM 2/05 COOP 9 SSE RAINSBURG 1.9 700 AM 2/05 COCORAHS 4 W EVERETT 1.5 700 AM 2/05 COCORAHS 9 S RAINSBURG 1.3 845 AM 2/05 COCORAHS EVERETT 1.0 800 AM 2/05 COOP ...CAMBRIA COUNTY... 1 W WESTMONT 2.0 700 AM 2/05 COCORAHS NE BELMONT 1.6 800 AM 2/05 COCORAHS ...CUMBERLAND COUNTY... SHIPPENSBURG 1.1 1200 AM 2/05 CO-OP OBSERVER ...SOMERSET COUNTY... LAUREL SUMMIT 5.4 800 AM 2/05 COOP BOSWELL 5.2 318 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER SOMERSET 3.5 800 AM 2/05 COOP MEYERSDALE 1.5 800 AM 2/05 COOP $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 That lil event yesterday was quite the overachiever.. oh wait thats 2 years ago. Localized band ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 NAM and GFS have storm for WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 LOL....not much of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 LOL....not much of a storm. Beggars can't be choosers. I'll take 2" any day. You send my 5 bucks yet? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'll take my one or two flakes and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I get half of a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Beggars can't be choosers. I'll take 2" any day. You send my 5 bucks yet? lol I'll take my one or two flakes and run. I get half of a flake. I'm not ignoring it. The last time I had model runs like this my wife and I were stuck on a highway ramp for 2 1/2 hours in 3-4 inches of snow because the roads were impassible. And the tires on our bobsled, er, Mazda5 were bad. Just got snow tires for it so we are prepared. Of course I just jinxed this from happening, so I get a dusting and wmsptwx gets a third of a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 gfs and Nam still have our Flizzard event for wednesday though precip looks less than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm not ignoring it. The last time I had model runs like this my wife and I were stuck on a highway ramp for 2 1/2 hours in 3-4 inches of snow because the roads were impassible. And the tires on our bobsled, er, Mazda5 were bad. Just got snow tires for it so we are prepared. Of course I just jinxed this from happening, so I get a dusting and wmsptwx gets a third of a flake. Hah more like a quarter of a flake. Was nice to see the 6z GFS have a glacier building run for a change in it's long range, this winters been crappy enough that we haven't seen the notoriously cold 6z cycle have anything epic. GFS and Euro look like they continue to differ on long range. Euro has one heck of a bomb winding up at 240, destined for the lakes. I've been in DC since yesterday and coming home later today. There was a nice stripe of snow coming thru Bedford County from Saturdays system, i'd say a couple inches along that stretch of the Turnpike and I-70.. Nothin under the m/d line. Should've packed shorts for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 gfs and Nam still have our Flizzard event for wednesday though precip looks less than yesterday. hey - we got bumped up to a whole tenth of an inch on the NAM. Epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 No West based block FTL on the Euro. Mega bomb affects Atlantic Canada....where the primary storm track has been when there is a decent surge of cold air over the EUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 No West based block FTL on the Euro. Mega bomb affects Atlantic Canada....where the primary storm track has been when there is a decent surge of cold air over the EUS. Has an inch or two over the southern tier Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Has an inch or two over the southern tier Wed. Mega bomb would bring one or two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Mega bomb would bring one or two feet. Not here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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