Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 If I go chasing this year,I think it maybe February or March, screw those May and June HP supercells. I'll go for the better synaptic forcing, like today. april-june ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 yeah nothing like nighttime storms moving 400 miles an hour through bad terrain Not an Issue. I'll beat up some gators and cary my vehicle through the swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I have made it to Stuttguard AR after sitting in Helena AR for most of the afternoon. Sun is peeking through the fog/clouds with a temp of 65. Now I wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I've seen a couple breakouts of sunlight, but no significant clearing yet. Nevertheless, we'll probably see it before sunset. what's clearing really going to do at this point in the day anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Chasing in the jungle at night probably isn't a good idea. Near Memphis, you have 60-80 miles with ''good visibility'' before going in impossible chase land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 what's clearing really going to do at this point in the day anyway? Yeah, I don't think it matters much. Temps appear to be sufficiently warm even with clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 OK, it looks like showers are starting to form in north central AR. Here in Memphis, I've seen dark clouds interspersed with breaks of sunlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 We've got showers breaking out in southwest MidTenn. BNA AFD just came out and it is pretty underwhelming, the office is known for playing it conservative and not having much strong wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 We've got showers breaking out in southwest MidTenn. BNA AFD just came out and it is pretty underwhelming, the office is known for playing it conservative and not having much strong wording. a lot of the usual parameters are not looking too exciting thus far -- helicity is superb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 a lot of the usual parameters are not looking too exciting thus far At the moment, a second warm front is getting ready to enter Memphis which will bring the dewpoint up into the 60s and the resulting warm air advection should destabilize the atmosphere. That warm front will be moving north pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Amazing how strong the CAD is today and is actually going to be my area's saving grace (I hope). It's 43 IMBY but it's 53 over in Douglasville on the West side of the state. It's 60 in Macon. Should be an interesting night watching development back to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Temps will probably stay steady or even rise in the next several hours as warm/moist advection continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Showers are forming in S AR, where convective initiation is progged to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Development isn't quite as explosive as I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Showers are forming in S AR, where convective initiation is progged to happen. sig tor/sup paramaters bulging into that area now too.. should start going soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Development isn't quite as explosive as I thought it would be. It's not forecast to really get going until about 5, 6 pm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Development isn't quite as explosive as I thought it would be. The storms/front haven't reached the most volatile/dangerous environment yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like it's game on in ar now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like it's game on in ar now Looks like it is skipping the discrete mode and going right to linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like it is skipping the discrete mode and going right to linear. There's still a cap in the warm sector, which is just now getting set up. Supercells are by no means ruled out yet. Also, DP is 61 in Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like it is skipping the discrete mode and going right to linear. Stop doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Stop doing this. Just stating what I am observing. You don't have to create conflict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm only saying that because you did it on the other forum as well. The storms will likely initiate and some will form into a squall, while some others will likely remain more discrete and pose a significant tornado risk. Tornado watch should be coming very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Storm in w central al worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm only saying that because you did it on the other forum as well. The storms will likely initiate and some will form into a squall, while some others will likely remain more discrete and pose a significant tornado risk. Tornado watch should be coming very soon. I'm willing to speculate that it will be PDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 MEG has tornado watch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 PDS tor watch... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 PDS! 90/60 tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 PDS Watch is up. Cells are starting to fire pretty nicely ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 PDS! and...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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