JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Looks like a line with embedded supercells is the most likely storm mode. SPC WRF is showing some impressive updraft helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 HRRR is showing discrete supercell development early... in the 6pm-9pm area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ugh, here in Memphis the temperature's been rising...with the dew point nipping at its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yup, 60's temperatures rapidly being advected northward towards western TN, with 70's temps already pushing past JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ugh, here in Memphis the temperature's been rising...with the dew point nipping at its heels. We're already up to 61/55 here in Murfreesboro (MBT) and we're actually the warmest spot in the state at the noon report. Winds are starting to pick up outta the SSE as well. It's good to see the local media jumping up and down announcing this event online, especially on Facebook feeds. Also one other note, OHX's dual-pol upgrade was completed earlier than scheduled and came back online yesterday. It's funny how it'll get it's first workout the following day, today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Temperature at Memphis Int'l Airport is 61 degrees Fahrenheit with a dew point of 56 degrees. Just 12 hours ago, the temperature was steady at 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 We're already up to 61/55 here in Murfreesboro (MBT) and we're actually the warmest spot in the state at the noon report. Winds are starting to pick up outta the SSE as well. It's good to see the local media jumping up and down announcing this event online, especially on Facebook feeds. Also one other note, OHX's dual-pol upgrade was completed earlier than scheduled and came back online yesterday. It's funny how it'll get it's first workout the following day, today. Memphis has just gotten dual-pol as well. It will be interesting to see it in action today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 some nice january soundings... (off of the 12z nam) MEM BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Those hodos are about as good as you're going to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Those hodos are about as good as you're going to see. My jaw actually dropped, incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The SPC kept things the same with the 20z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 My jaw actually dropped, incredible. These wind profiles are just spectacular, and the fact that we have 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE to work with in January is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Those hodos are about as good as you're going to see. I was just thinking the same thing, you don't see them smoothly curved that often. Ugly to be sure. You can see the warm front surging north in southern Miss and Alabama at this time. Of course we're still locked in the dang wedge in N. Ga. as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I was just thinking the same thing, you don't see them smoothly curved that often. Ugly to be sure. You can see the warm front surging north in southern Miss and Alabama at this time. Of course we're still locked in the dang wedge in N. Ga. as usual. It's times like these that I am grateful for the wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Secondary warm front surging north across the Arkansas/Mississippi delta, per Kevin Terry of memphisweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 222026Z - 222230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE ARKLATEX THEN RACE NEWD TOWARD WRN TN/NWRN MS AFTER DARK. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 00Z. LEADING EDGE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX AND WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO SRN/ERN AR...AS NOTED BY SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S...WHILE A STUBBORN WEDGE OF COOLER AIR HAS YET TO BE DISPLACED OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/NWRN AR. CURRENT THINKING IS GREATEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE S-E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING BAND OF LOW LEVEL CU ALONG THE DRY LINE NEAR I-35 OVER NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER FORCING THAT WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX. WITH TIME THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS LINE...OR PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE NEAR THE LA BORDER AS EXHIBITED BY SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN FROM NEAR TYR TO JUST WEST OF SHV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Stay safe everyone DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS ERN AR...SERN MO...SRN PARTS OF IL/IND...WRN PARTS OF KY/TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL AND FAR NERN LA...... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A LARGE PART OF THE OH VALLEY TO ARKLATEX/CNTRL GULF COAST... ...FORECAST... A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO TN VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY. FORECAST REASONING GENERALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS/SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL/BROADER PERSPECTIVE. LATEST HIGH-RES DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /SUCH AS EXPERIMENTAL SPC SSEO/ REFLECT THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO INITIALLY DEVELOP TOWARD /AND ESPECIALLY AFTER/ THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A MIXED-MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING QLCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS STORMS DRAMATICALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD/AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ..GUYER.. 01/22/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012/ ...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT WHILE MOVING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ATTENDED BY 100+ KT JET STREAKS AT 500 AND 250 MB WITH A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-200 M AT 500 MB FORECAST ALONG SYSTEM TRACK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...CYCLONE OVER WRN KS WILL DEVELOP EWD TO ERN KS BY 23/00Z BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO NRN IL BY 23/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM NERN TX EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS/AL/GA WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. ...OH VALLEY SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-14 G/KG. THE INTENSIFICATION AND BROADENING OF A 50+ KT LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S BY TONIGHT INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE FLUX WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO AN EWD/NEWD-ADVECTING EML...CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. EXPECT MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MS AND AL ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TSTM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 22/21Z-23/00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL OR ERN AR AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING/EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. BETWEEN 23/00Z-23/06Z...EXPECT THE RAPID EXPANSION IN SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEYS WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MS INTO AL THROUGH 23/12Z. LOCATIONS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF EXPERIENCING TORNADOES /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALIGN WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EVOLVING QLCS. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 If we get maturing discrete/semi-discrete supercells moving into N MS and SW TN out of the current meso disc. area, we're going to have a serious problem. Brett Adair has breaks in the clouds in SE AR as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 MEG's AFD is ominous, to say the least: WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS OF 2PM...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE STARTING TO INCREASE WITH LARGE AREA BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE DELTA AREA OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME CLEARING AND THUS SUN WILL REACH THE MEMPHIS METRO BETWEEN 4 AND 6PM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP TO NEAR 70F ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SPRING STORM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS IT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS THIS TROUGH WILL SWING NEGATIVELY THROUGH THE OZARKS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE FIRST WILL BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN EXPECTED SQUALL LINE A FEW HOURS LATER WITH THE FRONT. BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG ARE STILL EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR FOR RAPID STORM ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER WEAK TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE ACTIVITY...BUT A GREATER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE RULE WITH THIS SECOND ROUND. UNFORTUNATELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALL BE NOCTURNAL. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION INITIATION FROM STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 22-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH A FORWARD MOTION OF NEAR 50 KTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...REACHING EXTREME WESTERN TENNESSEE BY MID EVENING...THEN NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST TORNADIC AS DISPLAYED BY THE LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 1AM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES THROUGH 4AM...WITH QUICK DRYING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY IN THE 6PM TO 4AM TIME FRAME AS MOS GUIDANCE IS ALREADY UNDERPLAYING THE CURRENT WIND FIELD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 If andyhb is posting in your thread, look out for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 If andyhb is posting in your thread, look out for severe. Lol, I have like 7 tabs open right now. Yeah, that MEG discussion is concerning, especially the part about the sun breaking out right before the main event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Lol, I have like 7 tabs open right now. Yeah, that MEG discussion is concerning, especially the part about the sun breaking out right before the main event begins. If I go chasing this year,I think it maybe February or March, screw those May and June HP supercells. I'll go for the better synaptic forcing, like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 We could have a PDS later this evening. Memphis and Little Rock are in trouble. They will face tornadic storms even after 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I was just thinking the same thing, you don't see them smoothly curved that often. Ugly to be sure. You can see the warm front surging north in southern Miss and Alabama at this time. Of course we're still locked in the dang wedge in N. Ga. as usual. I love me some wedge! I hope it hangs on here in NW GA because those South winds are humming. 52F in Adairsville at 412PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottL Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 One cell has popped up in Itawamba Co, MS, north of Columbus AFB. Storm motion looks to be about 030... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 If I go chasing this year,I think it maybe February or March, screw those May and June HP supercells. I'll go for the better synaptic forcing, like today. yeah nothing like nighttime storms moving 400 miles an hour through bad terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Chasing in the jungle at night probably isn't a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 First watch about to be issued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 S AR and N LA are clearing based on the latest satellite images, with the breaks in the clouds spreading into W MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I've seen a couple breakouts of sunlight, but no significant clearing yet. Nevertheless, we'll probably see it before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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