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Jan 22nd/23rd Severe Weather Outbreak


andyhb

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I've seen a couple breakouts of sunlight, but no significant clearing yet. Nevertheless, we'll probably see it before sunset.

what's clearing really going to do at this point in the day anyway?

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We've got showers breaking out in southwest MidTenn. BNA AFD just came out and it is pretty underwhelming, the office is known for playing it conservative and not having much strong wording.

a lot of the usual parameters are not looking too exciting thus far -- helicity is superb

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a lot of the usual parameters are not looking too exciting thus far

At the moment, a second warm front is getting ready to enter Memphis which will bring the dewpoint up into the 60s and the resulting warm air advection should destabilize the atmosphere. That warm front will be moving north pretty quickly.

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I'm only saying that because you did it on the other forum as well.

The storms will likely initiate and some will form into a squall, while some others will likely remain more discrete and pose a significant tornado risk.

Tornado watch should be coming very soon.

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I'm only saying that because you did it on the other forum as well.

The storms will likely initiate and some will form into a squall, while some others will likely remain more discrete and pose a significant tornado risk.

Tornado watch should be coming very soon.

I'm willing to speculate that it will be PDS.

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PDS tor watch...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE

NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE

AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL

INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE

EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS

AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE

MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG

TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH

TONIGHT.

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